Tue Apr 9th 2024

"My Guys" In This Rookie Class

After the NFL Combine, I spent a lot of time listening to various NFL scouts to hear what they think about the prospects. I ordered several rookie scouting guides and read them front to back. I also studied dozens of mock drafts to determine where rookies are most likely to be drafted. After taking all of their information, I tweaked my rookie rankings one last time before the NFL draft.

I've finished that process and have completed my post-combine and pre-draft rookie rankings. After completing my own rankings, I compare them with other dynasty analysts to get a gauge for which players I like more or less than them. Most managers in my leagues will use rankings of more well-known dynasty analysts when their drafts start next month, so when I compare my rankings with theirs, I get a good idea of which players I will add to many of my teams.

Last year, for instance, I was much higher on Puca Nakua, Michael Mayer, and Sean Tucker, so I drafted them on many of my teams. One was a huge hit (Nakua), one was a huge miss (Tucker), and the verdict is still out on the other (Mayer).

Draft capital and landing spot can change things quite a bit, but for now, these are the five players I expect to draft a lot this year since I have them ranked far higher than the excellent analysts at Dynasty League Football.

Xavier Legette

• Legette is my 17th-ranked player, while DLF has him ranked 24th.
• I did not watch South Carolina football this last season, but when studying Spencer Rattler's tape, all I could see was Legette making every catch. He had a fantastic fifth season at South Carolina with 71 catches for 1256 yards and seven touchdowns. The problem with him as a prospect is that he didn't break out until his fifth year. He did next to nothing the four years prior when he had a total of 42 catches for 423 yards. The fact that he broke out late and is 23 years old is a concern, but dynasty analysts have dinged him too much. The pros at DLF have him ranked as high as 21 and as low as 27, making him a player they'd draft at the 2-3 turn, whereas I could draft him in the middle of the second round. He tested as the 14th-highest-scoring wide receiver in the class, so he's incredibly athletic. He returned kicks at South Carolina, returning 29 kicks for 767 yards and one touchdown. He's also one of the biggest receivers in this class at 6'1" and 221 pounds. He reminds me most of Dez Bryant with his combination of size and speed and his ability to highpoint balls and shield off defenders with his body. He's projected to get drafted at the back of the second round in the NFL draft, giving him solid draft capital. I have him ranked ahead of Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman, who DLF has ranked nine and ten spots ahead of Leggette. That means he will fall to be a lot in the second round of rookie drafts, where I will gladly select him.

Ray Davis

• Davis is my 24th-ranked player, while DLF has him ranked 35th.
• Davis will be one of the oldest prospects in this year's class at 24 years old. He deserves to get dinged because of his age, but the hate has gone too far. The highest a DLF analyst has him ranked is 30th, and the lowest has him ranked 43rd, which means if managers use their rankings, I'll select Davis often on my teams near the 2-3 turn. Davis played at three different schools, Temple, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky, and had productive seasons with each team. His last season at Kentucky was his best, with 199 carries for 1129 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also had 33 receptions for 323 yards and seven touchdowns. That's 21 touchdowns on the season in the SEC against teams with much better players than his Kentucky teammates. If you've yet to hear about Davis's background, you should read about it here. He grew up in the foster system and was homeless for a time, but he survived and disciplined himself to achieve his goals. He's started a non-profit to benefit others in the foster care system. It may seem silly, but character is a factor in my rookie rankings, so his story gives him a little bump up in my eyes. He's predicted to be a 4th round pick in the NFL draft, so his draft capital could be better, but if he lands with a team with an open opportunity to compete, he will battle for a starting role, and everyone will root for him. If he lands on a team with a great depth chart, I will move him down my rankings, but not as far back as 35th. I want to take a chance on Davis and add him to many of my teams.

Malik Washington

• Washington is my 27th-ranked player, while DLF has him ranked 48th.
• There's a theme as to why most dynasty analysts rank all these players lower than me. It's that they are all older players. Washington is 23 years old, and his breakout season was his fifth year after transferring to Virginia from Northwestern. He had 500 and 600-yard seasons at Northwestern, but his first and last season at Virginia was bonkers. He had 110 catches for 1426 yards and nine touchdowns. That's the 6th highest production score in this wide receiver class. He is projected to get drafted in the 4th round, but I think he will get drafted one day two in the third round. He's a great runner after the catch, consistently making guys miss on tackles, and willing to run guys over. That's his strength. Several scouts I listened to and read over the last month saw him as one of their sleepers in the NFL and dynasty drafts. He's steadily moved up my rookie rankings over the last two months. Not so for the professionals at DLF since four of their seven rankers don't have him ranked among their top 63 players. If other dynasty managers use their rankings, I can wait on Washington and draft him in the fourth round instead of the third, where I have him ranked.

Javon Baker

• Baker is my 28th-ranked player, while DLF has him ranked 43rd.
• Baker was a four-star recruit who signed with Alabama but could not crack the starting lineup in his first two years, so he transferred to Central Florida, where he became a star. Baker is a big play waiting to happen, averaging 21 yards per catch in his senior season when he racked up 1139 yards and seven touchdowns on just 52 catches. He has excellent hands and a very competitive attitude, fit for a cocky diva receiver. I had Baker ranked higher than any dynasty analyst from when my first rankings were released in February, so he's not moved up my boards as much as he has stayed put. Now that he's projected to get drafted in the third round of the NFL draft and has been hyped as a sleeper by many scouts I follow, others are jumping on the bandwagon now, too. I want other analysts to stay quiet about him because he's the one player in this class that I hope to add to all of my leagues. If his hype does not build, I am sure I can. Three of DLF's analysts don't even have Baker ranked among their top 63. Unlike Washington, I won't take a chance of waiting for Baker to fall to me in the fourth round. I reach for him in the third round every time.

Jermaine Burton

• Burton is my 32nd-ranked player, while DLF has him ranked 40th.
• Burton is a recent riser in my rankings after reading a few very positive reports about him in two of the draft guides that I ordered and read. He was a four-star recruit to Georgia before transferring to Alabama. His production profile concerned me the most because he only had 40 and 39 catches in his last two seasons at Alabama. The scouts with higher opinions of him than I did note that the Alabama offense was run-heavy the previous two seasons, not giving Burton many opportunities. They are convinced that the NFL will still be high on him, though. He is projected to get drafted at the top of the third round. If so, his draft capital will move him up in managers' dynasty rankings. He had the 13th-highest athletic score among the wide receivers in this class. His athletic scores, the confidence scouts have in him, and his projected draft capital moved him up my board, even though I was not crazy about him. One of the analysts at DLF has him ranked 32, as I do, but their consensus ranking is 40th. That will change when he's drafted in the third round of the NFL draft. I don't expect to draft a lot of Burton because someone will like him more than me after the NFL draft.

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