Tue Apr 16th 2024

My "Avoids" In This Rookie Class

Last week, I wrote about "my guys" in this year's rookie class. This week, I'll write about my "avoids" in this year's class. It's not that I would never draft these players. It's more that I have them ranked significantly lower than other dynasty analysts, so I know I will likely not draft these players because someone will draft them before I would.

To help me discover which players are on my "avoid" list, I compare my rankings with the pros at Dynasty League Football to see which players they have ranked five or more spots ahead of me. If they are ranked five or more spots ahead of me, odds are they will get drafted ahead of me in all of my rookie drafts.

My rankings differed slightly from theirs among the top 23 players, but none more than three or four spots. The first player we had a five or more spot ranking difference was with their 24th ranked player. After that, our rankings differed a lot; they will vary a lot this year. Past round two in this rookie class, I think managers will reach for their guys. Here are some rookies that others will reach for in the late rounds whom I am unwilling to reach for.

Malachi Corley

• At the time of writing, DLF had him ranked 24th, while I had him ranked 31st.
• I liked Corley's film when I first studied it. He has an 8th-ranked production profile in this wide receiver class after an excellent career at Western Kentucky with more than 3000 yards receiving in his four years there. Given his superb run-after-catch ability, everyone calls him the Deebo Samuel of this class. That is his strength, but what concerns me is that most of his yardage comes after catches behind or just past the line of scrimmage. To succeed, he will have to land with a team that knows how to use him that way, and only a few offenses are fit to do so. That's why mock drafts have him most often drafted by the 49ers in the second round. Analysts have gotten tunnel vision with Corley and only see him as a weapon in an offense like the 49ers. The odds are that he gets drafted by another team, which will cause dynasty managers to lower him in their rankings back down to where I already have him ranked. I have Jalen McMillan, Roman Wilson, Ja'Lynn Polk, Malik Washington, and Javon Baker ranked ahead of Corely, and I can't imagine moving Corley ahead of those prospect who have more versatile skillsets and can be effective in any NFL offense. I also knock guys who played against weaker competition and were less highly recruited. Corley was a two-star prospect. He's fun to watch on tape, but there are too many red flags for me to draft him in the second round, even if an NFL team drafts him in the second.

MarShawn Lloyd

• At the time of writing, DLF had him ranked 29th, while I had him ranked 43rd.
• His college production profile concerns me the most, with his best season coming in his final season at Southern California after transferring after three unproductive years at South Carolina. His career high in carries was last year with just 116, which he turned into 820 yards and nine touchdowns. He was a four-star recruit but never produced like one. During the NFL Combine broadcast, I was surprised to hear Daniel Jeremiah praise Lloyd so much and even predict that he might be the first running back drafted. His praise caused me to move him up my rankings after the Combine, but not nearly as high as the pros at DLF have him. I would draft Ray Davis and Audric Estime ahead of Lloyd and have a group of 10-15 wide receivers ahead of him in my rankings. Davis and Estime were far more productive for many years in college. Their worst starter seasons were more productive than Lloyd's best. His draft capital will likely make me move him up my rankings closer to Davis and Estime, but he will not pass them, no matter what his team and draft capital are compared to theirs.

Will Shipley

• At the time of writing, DLF had him ranked 30th, while I had him ranked 37th.
• I expected that I would be higher on Shipley than most analysts, so I was surprised to see him rank seven spots higher. DLF analysts have him ranked as high as 23rd and as low as 34, so they all have him ranked ahead of me. As a top-tier recruit and immediately productive player from year one, and he had three productive seasons with Clemson. He's a dual-threat running back with 38 and 31 receptions in the last two seasons. He can earn a role with a team immediately but can never become an every-down back. There are few every-down backs in this class, though. Still, I have Ray Davis, Audric Estime, and Dylan Laube ranked ahead of Shipley in this class. I wanted a share of him in this year's drafts, but I won't be able to select him if I have him ranked 37th. The wide receiver class is stacked, so there are too many receivers I would like to draft ahead of Shipley.

Bucky Irving

• At the time of writing, DLF had him ranked 33rd, while I had him ranked 40th.
• Irving has continued to fall in dynasty rankings since his poor testing at the Combine. I was surprised to see that DLF had him ranked outside of the second round. I thought his college production and tape would have kept him higher in some analyst's rankings. He is a polarizing player in this class. Two DLF analysts have him ranked 24th, whereas three others have him ranked 36th, 37th, and 37th, closer to where I have him ranked. There will be a manager in every league who likes him and selects him in the second round, meaning I will have no shares of Bucky this year. He'll make a great change of pace and passing downs back for an NFL team, but he'll fail to produce for dynasty rosters because his role will be limited. The only way I would change my mind on him would be if he were drafted earlier than expected by a team I was confident would use him more often. Early in the process, he was thought to be a 3rd round draft pick, but not most mock drafts have him falling to the 4th round. That's where I would draft him in dynasty rookie drafts, too.

Isaac Gurrendo

• At the time of writing, DLF had him ranked 37th, while I had him ranked 50th.
• Gurrendo was not in my rookie rankings until he blew up the NFL Combine. He had a 99% athletic score, first in this class of running backs. His college production, however, paints a different story. He had a total of 231 carries for 1392 yards in his five years in college, four with Wisconsin, and a fifth year at Louisville. One NFL team will draft him based solely on his Combine performance, but he's not predicted to get drafted until the 5th round. It's good to bet on the best athletes late in dynasty rookie drafts, but I would rather make a late-round pick on Frank Gore Jr., Cody Schrader, or Kimani Vidal ahead of Gurrendo. They've all proven their athleticism and production on the field as compared to the underwear Olympics. The DLF analysts have Gurrendo ranked way ahead of those guys, but I don't. I'll surely miss out on Gurrendo as dynasty managers who place a high value on athletic testing draft him a round or two higher than I would.

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