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Tue Jun 28th 2022

Trades Made After Rooikie Drafts

As we head into the dead zone after OTAs and before NFL training camp, I thought I'd look back at trades that took place in my leagues after our rookie drafts. There has not been a lot, but there has been some action at least. Here are my thoughts on the few trades made over the last two months.

Tyrion Davis-Price <-----> Jakobi Meyers

  • In this league, Davis-Price was drafted as the 25th pick in our rookie draft, pick 3.1. That's about where most dynasty managers draft him, though I have him ranked far lower than that in my rookie rankings, where he's number 38. I didn't like his college film or his lack of production at LSU. But most dynasty managers liked his landing spot with the 49ers. There are two distinct ways dynasty managers think about Davis-Price. One way is to believe that he was drafted by the 49ers, who have a history of making late-round running backs fantasy relevant and will play whichever running back like regardless of their draft capital. The other way is to believe he was drafted by a team that rotates their running backs and already has a crowded backfield, including another late-round rookie breakout from last year, Elijah Mitchell. I fall in the latter category, so I like the Meyers side of this trade slightly more than the Davis-Price side. In a league with three starting wide receivers and two flex spots, Meyers could be the last player in lineups this season. He averaged 9.1 points per game last season in this half-PPR league. DeVante Parker's presence in New England will surely decrease his opportunities. Still, he was targeted more than Kendrick Bourne last year, so he should fill in the WR-2 role on a team with a quarterback (Mac Jones) who will improve after his rookie season.

Tyler Allgeier <-----> Elijah Mitchell

  • Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, the same team that traded for Davis-Price then traded away Elijah Mitchell. The trade for Davis-Price made a little more sense if he was trying to secure a share of the 49ers backfield by rostering Mitchell and Davis-Price, but by trading Mitchell, the manager showed that he expects Davis-Price to win the job in San Francisco. I don't think so. I like the Mitchell side of this trade by far. I'll almost always side with what I have seen versus what I've not seen, and I saw Mitchell become an every-week fantasy starter after week one last season. I like Allgeier's college film and production, and I have him ranked higher than most analysts in my dynasty rankings at 18th, but he's still unproven. His fifth-round draft capital makes him very replaceable in next year's draft as the Falcons continue to work on their rebuild plan. I'm excited to see if Allgeier could become this year's Elijah Mitchell and believe it's in the realm of possibilities for him, but I much prefer to roster the guy who is last year's Elijah Mitchell.

Zach Ertz <-----> Albert Okwuegbunam

  • In my last article, I listed Zach Ertz as one of the ten players I'm trying to acquire in trades. The last few weeks, I put my money where my mouth and traded for Ertz twice. I have Dallas Goedert as my starting tight end in this league but have growing concerns about his target share in Philadelphia after they traded for A.J. Brown during the NFL draft. On the other hand, Ertz should see his targets tick up after DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the season. I'm also not concerned about Trey McBride cutting into Ertz's playtime because it takes time to develop at the tight end position. Ertz already held off Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia. I traded away a younger tight end that does have upside with the addition of Russell Wilson and the loss of Noah Fant, but I made this trade to give me a little edge this year and next before Trey McBride takes over for Ertz. As for Albert Okuegbunam, he too could be replaced in a year or two by Greg Dulcich, after my second-ranked rookie right end in this class.

Zach Ertz <-----> Melvin Gordon

  • I made the trade offer for Ertz right after Gordon signed back with Denver. I offered Gordon to the manager who had Javante Williams on his squad, thinking he may appreciate locking up Denver's backfield. He immediately accepted, especially since he T.J. Hockenson as his starting tight end. I have George Kittle as my starting tight end in this league, but my concerns are growing for him, given he's likely to have Trey Lance passing to him this year instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. I believe Ertz will out-target Kittle this year. Kittle will still have more blowup games and big plays, but Ertz will be very consistent weekly. I have plenty of running back depth in this league, so Gordon was very expendable.

Christian McCaffrey and a 2023 2nd round pick <-----> Javonte Williams, AJ Dillon, and a 2023 3rd round pick

  • The team that traded me Ertz for Gordon to have as William's handcuff later traded Williams in this monster trade to get McCaffrey. McCaffrey has been moved around in this league over the last few months. I sold him at the end of last season for Elijah Mitchell, Rashod Bateman, and 1.12. As much as I love McCaffery, I'd prefer to have the package side of this deal. It's close, and the new McCaffrey manager was right to get back a second-round pick for a third-round pick to get this deal done, but I like the package or players and years bought back by adding Williams and Dillon to that team. Williams and Dillion have yet to hit their dynasty peaks, and the arrow is certainly pointing up with both. In contrast, McCaffrey has hit his dynasty peak already, and his arrow is slowly moving down.

Tyreek Hill and Darrel Williams <-----> D.J. Moore and Darrell Henderson

  • I negotiated this trade shortly after taking over an orphan team with D.J. Moore on my roster. I value D.J. Moore far less than most managers, so I put him on the trading block to see what offers I could get. One manager quickly contacted me, and after several direct messages, we finally struck this deal. I was happy to get an upgrade at wide receiver, even though Hill makes my team older and will likely be less productive in Miami than in Kansas City. I was pleased to get rid of Moore, whose quarterback play will continue to limit his upside in Carolina. I value Henderson more than Williams but was willing to downgrade my bench players to upgrade a starter. I was excited to see Williams sign in Arizona to backup James Conner, who gets injured often. I still like Williams even though coaches praised Eno Benjamin during recent OTAs. The only way I think I'd regret this trade is if Cam Akers cannot return as the Rams' starter and Henderson becomes the starter next season, which is a possibility - one the other manager is undoubtedly hoping for.

Cam Akers, Tyrion Davis-Price, Rashod Bateman, and a 2023 2nd round pick <-----> Tony Pollard and Jaylen Waddle

  • Here is another trade that's utterly dependent on Cam Aker's health. If he returns to start for the Rams, this trade is close to even. If not, it's lopsided the other way. Jaylen Waddle is the best player in this trade, and often the winning side of a dynasty trade is simply the side with the best player. That said, he had to give up a lot to get the best player in the deal. This is a ten-team league, and the team that gave away his 2023 second-round pick is rebuilding, so the pick should be no worse than the 15th pick. That's an essential piece of this trade, given the 2023 class is loaded. Additionally, we're moving this league to superflex in 2023, making the draft class even deeper. I believe Pollard will be more involved in the Cowboys' offense next year, but I don't think Dallas will ever move on from Ezekiel Elliot in favor of Pollard, so Akers, if he returns to a starting role, is a substantial step up from Pollard. I like Bateman more than most managers and analysts, so I see the dropoff from Waddle to Bateman as significant but less significant than others might think. Waddle is currently my 8th ranked wide receiver, and Bateman is 27th. It rightly takes a big package to buy Waddle, and it did here. I think the price was right in this trade.

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