Tue May 5th 2026

Rookie-Draft Grades #1

• In the Runnin’ Down a Dream start-up draft, I took a win-now approach and have built a team that will be very competitive in year one. I chose not to draft any rookies in the start-up draft, so I planned to watch the draft unfold without making a move. However, when I saw one of “my guys,” Antonio Williams, available at the end of the first round, I traded up to draft him. I gave up a 2027 first-round pick to get picks 1.12 and 2.10, which turned into Antonio Williams and Ted Hurst. I’m convinced that Williams will earn a starting role with the Commanders and make an immediate impact in year one. I’ve been higher on Williams throughout the rookie-ranking process and loved his landing spot. It’s been fun to hear other dynasty analysts come around to my line of thinking this week as I have listened to post-NFL draft podcasts. Everyone can jump on my bandwagon now! I am also thrilled to have drafted Hurst, who I also believe will see a lot of playing time this year. He won’t make an immediate impact like Williams, but he’ll become a future starter with the Buccaneers. Wide receiver is my weakest position in this new league, so adding some depth and youth was worth giving up a first-round pick, especially since my win-now team will be a top contender.

• In my Finish the Fight league, I had my own pick at 2.4 and decided to trade up to secure the 2.3 pick, too. I traded a 2027 second-round pick to get the 2.3 this year and selected Denzel Boston and Williams with my next pick. I was not happy that Boston landed in Cleveland and was drafted after KC Conception. Still, the two can make a great pair and win in very different ways. They can be the future star receiver tandem in Cleveland. Boston is my 8th-ranked rookie, so when he fell to the 13th spot in this draft, I was eager to trade up to get him. Williams is my 12th-ranked rookie, so this trade allowed me to get two first-round rookies in my rankings early in the second round of this 10-team rookie draft.

• These Penn State teammates are the third-tier running backs in this class that dynasty managers are eager to draft, given they have older and weaker depth charts to climb in Tennessee and Washington. In one of the weakest running back classes in recent memory, running-back-needy teams are reaching on these backs. Singleton went as high as 12th in one league and as low as 23rd in the other. Allen went as high as 19th in one league and 33rd in the other. They are back-to-back in my rankings at 33rd and 34th, so I am definitely not going to draft the Penn State backs in my rookie drafts this season, since they were drafted higher than I would draft them even in these drafts when they fell. I understand the need to target running backs, but I am unwilling to draft them as early as other dynasty managers clearly are. In my third rookie draft that just got underway, I drafted Ja’Kobi Lane 22nd, and Singleton went 23rd.

• It’s interesting to see that managers viewed these two teammates in Baltimore so differently. In one league, Sarratt was drafted six spots ahead of Lane. In the other, he was drafted four spots after. Sarratt was drafted roughly in the same spots at 23rd and 25th, whereas Lane was drafted 21st in one league and 29th in the other. I like both players, but the wise thing to do is to first draft the player whom the NFL team drafted. Lane, one of “my guys” this year, was drafted with the 16th pick of the third round by the Ravens, whereas Sarratt was drafted almost exactly a round later with the 15th pick of the fourth round. I’m biased because Lane is one of “my guys,” but wisdom still says that dynasty managers should draft the player with the better draft capital first when they are drafted by the same team. Lane and Sarratt win in the same ways, too, which likely means that one will play ahead of the other. My bets are on Lane, which is why I have him ranked 14th and Sarratt 20th. I was very disappointed when Lane was selected ahead of me in one league, so I had to draft Hurst, whom I also like, instead. At least I was able to draft Lane with the 22nd pick in my third rookie draft.

• Bell was drafted 22nd in one league and 35th in the others. That’s quite a big difference, especially since only two quarterbacks were drafted in the superflex league to account for the disparity. Bell is also one of “my guys,” and I have him ranked 24th in this class. Another manager felt the same way in this league, trading a 2027 third-round pick to move up to draft him in the 35th spot. That was a great trade. Bell will take some time to earn Josh Allen’s trust, but he has a great chance to become a future starter for the Bills, who need more reliable weapons in the passing game.

• Of course, the two first-round quarterbacks were the first to get drafted in rookie drafts. The only questions were how far Medonza would fall in the first round and if managers willing to be very patient would draft Simpson in the first round. In my first superflex draft, Mendoza was drafted at 1.2, and Simpson was a first-round pick, going at 1.10. I expect this to be the norm in rookie drafts this season, though I have Simpson ranked 12th, so I won’t be surprised if he falls to the second round in some superflex rookie drafts.
• The rest of the quarterbacks were selected in the order I expected based on their opportunities to play this season. Carson Beck, with a viable chance to start many games this season, went as the 19th player off the board and is my 22nd-ranked rookie. Drew Allar, with a viable chance to start some games this season or at least be the quarterback of the future for the Steelers, went 30th off the board and is my 30th-ranked rookie. Cade Klubnik, with a viable chance to start many games this season for the Jets once they are out of playoff contention, went as the 38th player off the board and is my 34th-ranked rookie. Then, Taylen Green, my only other ranked quarterback in this class, went 51st in this superflex draft, which is about where I expected, given that he’s my 56th-ranked rookie.

• Of course, Sadiq and Stowers were the first two tight ends drafted in these tight-end premium rookie drafts, going 7th and 8th (Sadiq) and 9th and 11th (Stowers). What’s interesting is the order of tight ends drafted after the top two. In one league, the order was Oscar Delp, Max Klare, Eli Raridon, and Justin Joly. In the other, it was Max Klare, Justin Joly, Michael Trigg, and Eli Raridon. Klare looks to be the consensus third tight end, but in one league, he was drafted after Delp. In one league, Delp was not drafted in the top 40, but in the other, he was the third tight end off the board at pick 36. Joly, one of “my guys” this season, was drafted 36th in one league and 42nd in the other. Trigg was drafted 38th in one league and 46th in the other. Raridon was drafted 38th in one league and 41st in the other. It looks like the Dynasty managers will have plenty of opportunities to draft their favorite tight end later in the third round or early in the fourth. It’s a deep class with plenty of choices, but few will make a year-one impact, so dynasty managers will have to be patient with these tight ends.

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