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Mon Sep 16th 2019

Week Two Review

Week Two Course Correction

Week two is in the books!  Here are some of my overall impressions after watching all of the games along with comments on Dynasty and NFL transactions that were made this week.

Top Four Observations

Team Course Correction

  • Week one always causes overreactions.  Week two there are a lot of course corrections.  Many teams and players that gave us great concern in week one, bounced back in week two.  Jameis Winston is not going to lose his job.  He will get comfortable in the Arian's offense.  Matt Ryan and Julio Jones did their normal thing this week after Atlanta's pathetic week one, though their offensive line is still a mess (more on that later).  Green Bay's offense can move the ball fine when they are not playing Chicago in Chicago on opening night.  Jimmy G and the 49ers offense can score often and win games without needing defensive touchdowns.  Shanahan can get fantasy value out of literally any running back. Lamar Jackson is still going to run the ball if that's how a team's going to make Baltimore win.  Each week in the NFL gives us more data points to help solidify player value.  Don't overreact just yet.

Quarterbacks are falling.

  • This was the biggest news by far this week.  Sam Darnold gets Mono of all things (out for 4 weeks) and then his back up, Trevor Siemian, busts his ankle.  Ben Roethlisberger injures his elbow and has surgery this week (gone for the season).  Drew Brees injures his thumb and has surgery this week (out 5-6 weeks). Cam Newton hurts his foot (likely not to play this week).  If you add to that list the Andrew Luck retirement, Nick Foles injury last week, and Daniel Jones replacing Eli Manning, 22% of teams are starting quarterbacks that they did not intend to start 3 weeks ago!  It's brutal because it's destroying the value and impact of so many players since offensive production is so directly related to the quarterback.

Kickers and defenses are the worst... and the best.

  • I know many people prefer to play in leagues without kickers and defenses, but I actually like them.  Weeks like this, however, are a great argument against me.  Kickers were the worst this week.  There were so many missed field goals and extra points leading to many missed fantasy points or negative points depending on your league rules.  If you played against the New England defense like I did in three different leagues, you lost as I did.  It's ridiculous that New England scored 40-50 points against me in those leagues.  It's so hard to come back from that!  For the rest of the season, whatever defense plays against the Dolphins is assured 25-50 points. It's going to be brutal.

Offensive Lines Are Killing Running Backs

  • Several teams have horrendous offensive lines and they are killing their running backs.  Joe Mixon has no chance in Cincinnati.  He has 27 total yards rushing this year!  Washington really needs Trent Williams to come back.  Washington is averaging 37 yards rushing per game.  Adrian Peterson is too old to create his own yards, so Chris Thompson is the back to own because of his play in the passing game.  Finally, Devonta Freeman can't do anything in Atlanta so long as their two rookie lineman are injured.  He only has 41 yards rushing, and I don't see that changing at all this season.

Week Two Injury Impact

Drew Brees

  • Everyone in New Orleans needs to be downgraded for sure, but not as much as most people think.  I believe Sean Peyton will be creative enough to keep Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara productive.  The Saints defense has been playing fantastic this year too.  If the defense keeps games close, Peyton can have a healthy run to pass ratio and keep Bridgewater or Hill from having to win the game.

Ben Roethilsberger

  • Mason Rudolph looked really good in the preseason and has been with the team for more than a years now.  Pittsburg showed their faith in Rudolph when they traded Josh Dobbs to Jacksonville.  He was productive this week when he came in after Big Ben's injury.  Now they can build future game plans around his skills so that he can carry the offense.  I am more confident in Rudolph to keep the Steelers players productive on our fantasy teams.  I suspect James Conner and Vance McDonald will get more opportunities with Rudolph than they would have with Ben, but Juju will get targeted less.  Of course, everyone will speculate that he will target the heck out of his college teammate, James Washington.  I want to wait and see on that one, but Donte Moncrief has certainly played his way onto the bench.

DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert

  • Philadelphia was walking wounded on Sunday night.  These injuries thrust Nelson Agholor back into the spotlight and gave rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (J.JAW) 93% of the snaps.  I would try to sell Agholor, especially if he has one more excellent game before his teammates heal.  I don't believe he has longterm dynasty value in Philadelphia.  It took these injuries for him to go from 2 receptions week one to 8 receptions in week two. Plus I like J.JAW as the primary dynasty value among these WRs.  He did absolutely nothing Sunday night. I believe that's because he has not practiced with the first team and was unprepared for 93% of the snaps.  He'll be ready this week and show why he was one of my favorite rookies last year.

Michael Gallup

  • This is a real bummer for me as a Cowboy fan.  Gallup was off to an incredible start to the season and could have easily moved into a top 30 dynasty WR.  He'll be back in a few weeks and pick back up where he left off.  The ghost of Devin Smith came out of nowhere to have a huge game last week and it looks like he's going to play in place of Gallup while Cobb stays in the slot for Dallas.  Smith won't get near the target-share that Gallup would have so I am not eager to buy him for these few weeks.  I do believe Cobb will see an increase in targets though so his value will go up.  Dak should be just fine without Gallup.

Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy

  • The muddy backfield gets even muddier.  They are calling each of these guys "day-to-day" in their recovery, but what fantasy owners really want is at least one of them to be ruled out.  Ankle and knee injuries tend to linger so I would not plan to play either Williams or McCoy this week unless one was ruled out and I was in a real pinch.  Darwin Thompson, the preseason riser, has only had a 3% and 5% snap-count the last two weeks.  I am not sure Reid is willing to trust him fully just yet so Darrel Williams should be in the mix too.  Sadly, we have to avoid this awesome backfield until we get some clarity.

Week Two Waiver Moves

As a reminder, I play in dynasty leagues that roster 27-30 players.  This is a list of the players I was most eager to pick up this week.

1. Demarcus Robinson

  • This one hurt.  When Tyreek Hill was under investigation for a time this offseason, I picked up Robinson in several leagues.  When it can time to cut back the rosters I dropped Robinson in all of my leagues since Hill was reinstated and they drafted Mecole Hardman.  Thankfully I was able to pick him back up for my worst team since I had the #1 waiver position.  I also bought him for $225 in my FFPC league which has a $1000 FAAB.  As if his 7 catch, 172-yard week was not enough, when I saw that he played 91% of the snaps opposite Sammy Watkins and heard Mahomes speak about the chemistry they developed over the offseason, I had to bid for him aggressively.  I'm a believer.

2. Mason Rudolph

  • As I already stated above, I believe Mason can keep the Pittsburg offense producing this season.  He's worth holding too because who knows if Roethlisberger will completely heal from this significant surgery.  Let alone the fact that Big Ben always talks about retiring.  Now he has a year to think about it and decide.  Maybe Rudolph can make his decision for him by playing well.  I picked him up in one of my leagues at least.

3. Will Dissly

  • He was supposed to be injured.  Instead, he comes out and scores two touchdowns.  He started incredibly hot last year too before he was lost for the season with an injury.  I am willing to pick him up to see.  His snap counts are a little disturbing so far (51% and 59%), but he may have caused coach Carroll to play him more after last week's performance.  I picked him up in one league and plan to start him over Jared Cook given the Brees injury.

4. Ty Johnson

  • I had Johnson as my #4 priority waiver add even before the news broke that C.J. Anderson was cut by Detroit.  He's just looked way better than Anderson and it was clear that he would be a better handcuff to Kerryon Johnson.  I remember his play at Maryland because he tore up my Longhorns two times.  He really can play.  If Kerryon gets hurt (which happens often), Ty can certainly be productive.  Sadly, I was unable to pick him up this week.

5. Teddy Bridgewater

  • Like I said above, I trust more in Peyton than I do in Bridgewater.  I did not make any bids on him this week.  Concern about splitting time with Taysom Hill combined with the fact that Drew Brees is coming back in 5-6 weeks made me not want to actually make any bids for Teddy.

Week Two Trades

Here are the trades that were made in my leagues this week.

Tyler Boyd <======> Russell Wilson and a 2020 3rd

  • This trade was made by the poor guy that I traded Roethlisberger to last week.  With Big ben down, he was desperate for a quarterback.  I would not have made this trade, because he still had Jared Goff on his roster.  He has good WRs on his team, but I would not have sacrificed so much for Russell Wilson.  Boyd has a great future in Cincinnati with his new offensive-minded head coach, Zac Taylor.

D.J. Chark, Raheem Mostert, and Greg Olsen <=====> Latavius Murray and Antonio Brown

  • This one is tough.  Brown is obviously the best player in the trade, but he sure is full of risk.  I sold all of my A.B. shares last offseason, as you know.  I doubt he can keep his mind and learn the "Patriot Way" and stay off of the commissioner's exempt list, but if he does that team clearly wins this trade.  D.J. Chark has really impressed and appears to the #1 WR in Jacksonville.  He's a rising dynasty asset for sure.  Mostert will never become the #1 RB for the 49ers, but this team has Tevin Coleman so he has value while Coleman is injured.  Olsen is an injury and a retirement waiting to happen, but this team just lost Hunter Henry so they needed a filler for this year.  This is a pretty even trade given the risk on the Antonio Brown side.  It could look very lopsided really soon depending on which way the AB saga goes.

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