Tue Sep 19th 2023

Week Two Dynasty Takes

Week two got off to a way hotter start than last week! Scoring was up considerably, much to the pleasure of dynasty freeks! So many fantasy points were scored on Thursday night, leaving the manager way ahead or far behind heading into the weekend, but there were plenty of comebacks after teams lit up the scoreboard on Sunday. Hopefully, the Monday night games will continue the trend. It will be fun to watch, though I wish the two Monday night games did not overlap.

After watching and following all of the games on Thursday and Sunday, here are some of my dynasty takes.

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Week Two Dynasty Takes

I Was Wrong

• If I'm allowed to boast about things I got right, like being high on Puka Nacua, I also have to admit when I was wrong, as I appear to be with Anthony Richardson and possibly with Marvin Mims. Richardson got off to a hot start again, scoring twice on the ground before leaving the game in the second quarter with a concussion. He's been inaccurate, as I thought he would be, completing just 64% of his passes. Still, he's doing what most dynasty managers figured he could do on the ground. You cannot teach that, whereas he can improve as a passer with coaching and play calling. I had him third in my rankings among the quarterbacks in this class behind C.J. Stroud and Byrce Young. The verdict is still out on these rookie quarterbacks, but I thought Richardson would fall flat on his face. After six quarters in the NFL, he's proved me wrong.
• I had Marvin Mims ranked far lower than most dynasty analysts, too. After his two-catch, 113-yard, one-touchdown day, I must reconsider his dynasty value. I'm not willing to say I was wrong because my take was that he's only good for big plays. That's his only skill, and it's all he did in college. He did it again on Sunday when he caught a 60-yard touchdown and had a 53-yard catch. He had two catches on just 16 total snaps. He was fifth on the team in wide receiver snaps and first in fantasy points. That's what he can do. Let's see if he can move up the depth chart and add more versatility to his game. If he does, I'll eat my words like I have with Richardson.

Old Man Strength

• Three older men carried their NFL teams and dynasty teams this week. Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, and Keenan Allen combined for 341 receiving yards and five touchdowns on Sunday. Even at their age, they're every week's starters in dynasty lineups, as they have been for the last eight years. They've faced challenges and competition over the years but continue to overcome and produce reliable fantasy points. Keenan Allen has faced competition from Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston, Lockett from D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Evans from Chirs Godwin. Lockett lost Russell Wilson, and Evans lost Jameis Winston and Tom Brady. Nothing has slowed them down. Wide receivers usually decline in their thirties, and the cliff has to come to these guys sometime soon, but for this season they'll continue to defy the odds. It's still the wisest thing from a dynasty perspective to sell these players, but they sure are hard to get rid of when they help starting lineups, especially if you're a competitive team. I sold a few shares of Keenan Allen last year. He was among my most rostered players. I only have one share of Lockett and Evans. I love having these older men on my rosters, but I will put them all on the trading block this week to see if I get any fair offers to make my team younger, even if I'm a top-tier team in those leagues.

Youth Movement

• Speaking of getting Younger, the Packers have compiled a very impressive group of young offensive weapons, and they're already producing for dynasty managers. Last week, second-year man Romeo Doubs saw the end zone twice. This week, it was rookie Jayden Reed who scored twice. Filling in for second-year man Christian Watson, rookie Dontayvion Wicks scored this week, too. Dynasty managers need to see what the offense looks like with Christian Watson healthy before deciding which Packer wide receiver to invest in the most. Right now, they are bunched close together in my rankings. Before the season started, I had Watson ranked 29th, Doubs 42nd, and Reed 52. Watson's absence allows Doubs and Reed to move up while Watson moves back. I don't want to let two games affect my rankings too much, but Doubs and Reed have impressed a lot. I hope we can see the three of them on the field at the same time next week. It may be Watson's turn to score twice!

Garbage Time Counts

• The Texans had a very productive day in the passing game after falling behind to Indianapolis. C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns. Like Anthony Richardson, he struggled with accuracy, completing 64% of his passes, but threw the ball downfield more. After two games, Stroud is fourth in the league in total air yards. I still believe that Stroud will become this class's most productive fantasy quarterback, and his second game showed some of that ability. As I expected and hoped, Noah Brown's injury opened the door for Tank Dell to play, and that door will not be closed again. He took advantage of the 79% snap share, leading the team in targets with ten and scoring his first touchdown. Dell tied Nico Collins with seven receptions, but Nico got the deep balls, averaging 20 yards per reception with 146 yards and a touchdown. Even old man Robert Woods contributed with a team-high 86% of the snaps and 74 yards receiving. Unfortunately for Dameon Pierce, the Texans playing catch up led to a bad day on the ground, though he had 15 opportunities. He's been a big disappointment this season, causing his dynasty value to drop while Collins and Dell's rise. Stroud has the weapons he needs to produce, and the Texan's passing offense will no longer be one to avoid in starting lineups.

Murky Mess

• I'm not interested in starting anyone in the Buffalo or Baltimore backfields. I've never believed in James Cook, so I don't have any dynasty shares. I expected him to be the lead back and get most of the team's work, but to lose goal line carries to Damien Harris. I did not expect Latavius Murray to steal goal line carries, let alone be involved in the two-minute offense like he was in week one. Murray and Harris stole goal line carries this week, putting a ceiling on Cook's fantasy production. If goal line carries are split between Murray and Harris, they also have a cap on their production. I bet on Harris this offseason, believing he could earn the lead role over Cook. I've given up on that hope and will drop him from my rosters the next time I see a player I like on the waiver wire. I've already dropped all but one share of Latavius Murray, but that one share will come to an end the next time I make a waiver claim.
• With J.K. Dobbins sidelined for the year, I figured it would be a two-headed monster in Baltimore with Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. It was on Sunday when Hill played 57% of the snaps, and Edward 43%. Edwards was more productive on the ground, and he is a much better runner, but he's a liability in the passing game. Edwards had one catch in the 2022 season and only 19 catches in five years. Hill was more involved in the passing game this week and will continue to be, but he can't hold up to the full load running the ball. Baltimore is not afraid to use him on the goal line. He had two goal line touchdowns last week. This week, it was Edwards who got the goal line touchdown. At least Melvin Gordon did not get a touch this week after being called up from the practice squad. These backfields are too messy for me to know what to do with. I did not bid for Hill off of waivers last week. In a shallow league with 20 roster spots, I put a 20% bid on Edwards and won it. I already regret that decision.

Taking Over

• After two weeks of games, it's apparent that a few off-the-radar running backs have taken over their backfield. Kyren Williams led the Rams again this week and was on the field for an incredible 95% of the plays. He scored two touchdowns, one on the ground and one in the air, and combined for 110 yards. He's a reliable every-week starter for the rest of the season, especially after Cam Akers was a healthy scratch on Sunday and is likely on the trading block because of his attitude.
• Zack Moss missed last week but returned to 98% of the Colts' snaps this week. He turned the heavy workload into 107 total yards and a touchdown. Deon Jackson fell out of grace last week with his fumbling issues, and Moss benefitted. Evan Hull is injured, and Jake Funk, though healthy, did not see the field once. Workload and opportunities are a big part of fantasy production, especially at running back. It's gross to say, but Moss should get into starting lineups.
• I'm less confident in the performance of this takeover, but DeAndre Swift had 75% of the snaps Thursday night and arguably the best game of his career. Kenny Gainwell had 62% of the snaps in week one but was injured this week. I figured Rashaad Penny, a healthy scratch in week one and called up in week two, would get the bulk of the work, but Swift stole the show on a night when the Eagles decided to abandon the pass and run the ball nearly every play. I don't trust the Eagle's coaching staff to ride one running back throughout the season, but Swift's play on Thursday has to make them reconsider their running-back-by-committee philosophy.

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Week Two Waiver Wire

I'm not thrilled about any players on the waiver wire this week, but here are a few players I'd consider adding this week.

Kylen Granson

• Granson scored a touchdown this week. More importantly, he led the team in tight-end snaps with 65%. Last week he led the team, too, with 61%. He's the Colts' starter and, thus, deserves to be rostered in most dynasty leagues.

Justin Watson 

• Watson is tied for second on the team in targets with nine, and he's third in snap count among the wide receivers. Even so, he's only worth adding in deep leagues since Kansas City distributes the ball evenly among its weapons. Watson has been on my watch list for the last year or so, bouncing on and off my rosters in deep leagues. He may be a startable player in those leagues when injuries and bye weeks become a factor.

Craig Reynolds

• Reynolds came in the game after David Montgomery was injured on Sunday. Even if Montgomery misses a few weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs will not get the between-the-tackles role. Reynolds is the only other running back on the roster, though I am sure they'll call someone up this week. Even so, Reynolds will take some of Montgomery's role in the coming weeks. I can't imagine starting him in lineups, though, so he's only addable in the deepest leagues.

Dontayvion Wicks

• Wicks has played the WR-3 role, while Christian Watson missed time the last two weeks. He'll immediately forfeit that role once Watson returns and can't overtake Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed in the lineup. He did score a touchdown this last week and played 50% of the team's snaps. He's only an addable player in the deepest leagues, but he is a guy to add to watch lists and scout teams in all leagues.

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Week Two Trades

J.K. Dobbins <=====> 2024 2nd round pick

• This trade was made in my FFPC league, where rosters are thinner than most dynasty leagues. The roster size is 20. In this league, A manager posted on the message board that he did not want to carry Dobbins on his IR through the year, so he tried to sell him to the highest bidder. He found a taker for a future second-round pick. Likely, Dobbins will not be ready to play at the beginning of next season. In recent years, we've seen some running backs return from Achilles injuries, but none have returned to form. I don't expect Dobbins to break that trend. Sadly, I, too, would rather have a second-round pick.

Darnell Mooney <=====> 2024 3rd round pick

• A manager in this league has mismanaged his team. He's very thin at wide receiver and got desperate last week when two of his likely starters, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper, landed on the injury report. He traded a 3rd round pick for Mooney and added Terrance Marshall off the waiver wire. Mooney gave him a goose egg this week, and I won't be surprised if Marshall does the same on Monday night. I would trade Mooney for a third-round pick. I even dropped Mooney in a league because my roster was full of wide receivers with more upside. I could never imagine myself putting Mooney in my starting lineup in that league, so I dropped him. He was picked up off waivers the following week. Mooney deserves to be on most dynasty rosters but is droppable or tradeable on teams with better wide receiver depth.

Jacoby Brissett <=====> 2024 4th round pick

• This minor trade was made in a 14-team superflex league with 28-man rosters without defenses and kickers, making Brissett a player worth rostering in case Sam Howell gets injured or loses his starting role. I wish I knew he was available for this price because Howell is one of my starting quarterbacks in this league. He would have been a great addition to my team. I don't believe Howell will lose his starting role, but he could easily get injured, just as any quarterback can. He's worth a fourth-round pick in a league like this, where I have seven backup quarterbacks, including Carson Wentz, on my roster.

Baker Mayfield <=====> Miles Sanders

• In the same 14-team superflex league, a manager with three starting quarterbacks was willing to sell Mayfield for Sanders to strengthen his top-tier starting lineup. The team that sold Sanders did not have a starting quarterback on his team and wanted at least one. He's the same manager that traded for Brissett. He's trying to piece something together to compete this year, but it doesn't work, given the depth of this league. In a vacuum, I would much rather have Mayfield in a league like this, but I see why each team did what they did. In context, I like the move for the top-tier team since his roster is loaded, and he has Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert.

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