Tue Dec 3rd 2024

Week Thirteen Review

Thanksgiving week is my favorite football week of the year. I love the three island games on Thanksgiving and the addition of the Black Friday game this year. Saturday is rivalry week in college football, and Sunday is another full slate of games, especially this year with no bye weeks. I had a wonderful weekend watching all of the games and considering the dynasty impact of each.

Here are my dynasty thoughts on week thirteen in the NFL.

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Dynasty Impact

Oh My!

• I was amazed by Russell Wilson's play on Sunday. He had one of the best games of his career. He had 247 yards passing at halftime, the most yards he's ever thrown for the first half of a game. The Bengals and Steelers have played each other 110 times, and this was the highest-scoring first half in the history of their rivalry. Wilson distributed the ball to everyone, with ten different players catching passes from him and giving touchdowns to George Pickens, Calvin Austin, and Pat Freiermuth. After finishing the game with 414 yards, it's time to admit that Russell Wilson is cooking again. What a great game!

Oh No!

• I figured it would be bad for the 49ers in the Buffalo snow, but I was surprised by how bad they played. Purdy passed for just 94 yards in the snow, making his day and all his pass catchers way below season averages. What's worse for dynasty managers is that Christian McCaffrey injured his knee and is likely out for the year. The only people who see this as good news are the dynasty managers with Jordan Mason. He'll be a surprise strength in dynasty rosters in the playoffs, just as he was at the start of the season.

Ouch!

• Trevor Lawrence took a wicked cheap shot and was clearly concussed by it. Given the Jaguars' record, I doubt Lawrence will see the field again this year. That leaves the offense to Mac Jones, who will undoubtedly impact the fantasy weapons on the Jaguars in a negative way. As dynasty managers head into the playoffs, they will have far less confidence in Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas, and Evan Engram, which is a bummer. Taysom Hill was injured, and the team has already announced that he's lost for the year. His loss will give Juwan Johnson another chance at an increased role, making him a target on the waiver wire this week in most leagues.

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Stock Up

Chase Brown

• Brown has firmly taken the reigns as the future RB-1 in Cincinnati. He's looked excellent since Zack Moss was lost for the season, and he's kept Khalil Herbert, who the Bengals traded for, quiet on the bench. He's scored 24, 18, 17, and 18 points in the last four weeks. Sunday, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 10 yards per catch, combining for 100 total yards and a touchdown. He's been incredibly productive as a pass catcher, averaging 44 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks. What a pleasant surprise for dynasty managers who drafted him in the later round of rookie drafts last year.  

Rico Dowdle

• Dowdle has the best game of the season and his career on Thursday. He's not zooming up my dynasty rankings, but he's done enough to merit a bump up.  With a few games left in the season, he has an opportunity to prove that he can be the Cowboys' future starter. In the last two weeks, they've given him more opportunities with 19 and 22 carries, compared to the 10.3 carries he averaged before. I'll watch him closely over the next few weeks to see if he can cause the Cowboys not to look for a running back in the draft or free agency next year.

Bryce Young

• I'm amazed that Bryce Young has improved since being given the starting role back. For the second straight week, he's led his team in comeback efforts that fell just short, and both were against good teams. He's had his two highest-scoring fantasy games of the season in the last two weeks, throwing for more than 250 yards in each. After the way the season started, I thought he was forever doomed to a backup role, but he's rebounded well. He has a few more weeks to give the Panthers reason not to draft a quarterback in this year's draft. He's given dynasty managers in superflex leagues renewed hope that they did not waste a first-round pick on him.

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Stock Down

C.J. Stroud

• Stroud is playing much worse in his second year than in his first. He's already thrown nine interceptions this year compared to five in all of last year. He's only had three games with more than 20 fantasy points this season when he scored more than 20 points in 50% of his games last season. The Texans' strong running game is part of the reason why Stroud is less productive in passing, but he has regressed, too, this season. He's still a top-12 dynasty quarterback, but he's moved closer to the back end of the top 12 now.

Tank Dell

• Dell caught just one pass on Sunday. It was his second-worst game of the season. He's not a focal point of the offense. He's only had five or more catches in four games this season. He averaged 4.7 catches per game last season but averages 3.5 catches per game this season. Dynasty managers were okay with that last season because it seemed like at least one of his catches would be a bomb or a touchdown. That's not the case this season. He's no longer a startable player in most dynasty leagues.

Cade Otton

• Now that Mike Evans has returned to the field, Otton's target share and involvement in the Buccaneer's game plan have decreased. He's scored 3.5 and 4 fantasy points in the last two weeks. What looked like a possible breakout season now looks more like a flukey few weeks. After Evans was injured in week seven, Otton saw 10, 10, 11, and 8 targets in those games. The last two weeks, he's seen three and seven. He's back to being a streaming tight end again rather than a reliable starter.  

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Young Guns

Bucky Irving

• Irving has steadily cut into Rachaad White's workload as the season has progressed, and Sunday, he proved that he's the Bucanneer's future leading back. He looked electric for the second week in a row and had a season-high of 152 rushing yards on Sunday, with a season-high of 25 carries. I did not think Irving had the size to be a workhorse back, but he's proven me wrong. I'm upset that I only drafted him once in my dynasty leagues. He's an every-week starter for me in that league now, and he's carrying my team to a second-place finish and a bye week in that league.

Ladd McConkey

• McConkey had a season-high 12 targets and 9 receptions on Sunday. He had more than a hundred yards receiving by halftime. Sadly, he cooled off in the second half after sustaining a knee injury. Still, it's clear that the Chargers have found their WR-1 in McConkey, and his future is bright with Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. After a slow start to the season, he's hit the ground running, and his dynasty managers are thrilled. Injuries are the only thing holding him back, so let's hope he does not become an injury-prone player.

Brock Bowers

• Bowers leaped ahead of George Kittle to become the highest-scoring tight end of the season after his season-high 25-point game on Black Friday. The quarterback change to Aidan O'Connell didn't hurt him at all. Bowers is the engine of their offense, and they get him the ball in so many ways. Friday, he was their downfield weapon, averaging a season-high 14 yards per catch, including a beautiful 33-yard touchdown catch. It's incredible that he is so productive in his rookie season on a bad team with average quarterbacks and a coaching staff that's likely to get fired. What a fantastic athlete and rookie season.

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Old-Man Strength

Jonnu Smith

• Smith was the 4th highest-scoring tight end of the season heading into the week, and his 16-point game on Thanksgiving night will keep him there. He's having the best year of his career at 29 years old. He's averaged more than 20 points per game over the last three weeks and had three touchdown catches. What's more remarkable is the number of targets he's receiving with 8, 11, and 11 over the last three weeks. Since the Dolphins bye week, he's averaged more than 7.5 targets per game. Even at his age, he's become a significant part of the offense on a team with so many other weapons in the passing game. What a year for Jonnu!

D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen

• Moore had another productive week this week and has finally received the looks he deserves after the Bears changed their play-caller. He had a season-high 16 targets on Thanksgiving and had a beautiful over-the-shoulder touchdown catch. After four weeks in a row scoring five or fewer fantasy points per game, he's scored double-digit points each of the last three weeks and caught a touchdown in consecutive weeks. Keenan Allen has had his two most productive weeks of the season over the last two weeks, and the best game of the year was on Thanksgiving, where he scored two touchdowns. Caleb Williams still has room to improve his accuracy, but his play is improving, and he is making his older receivers, Allen and Moore, startable in dynasty lineups again.  

Joe Mixon

• Mixon was the Texans' battering ram as they ground out the clock to win the game. He finished the game with 101 yards rushing on 20 carries and scored a touchdown earlier in the game. He's scored double-digit fantasy points in every week of the season but two and more than 20 points in five of the ten games he's played this season. He's revived his dynasty stock in Houston even at the age of 28.

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Waiver Watch

Sincere McCormick

• I mentioned McCormick in last week's waiver watch, but he was not picked up in most of my leagues. He had another decent showing in the Black Friday game, with 64 yards rushing on 12 carries. He'll continue to get more chances with Alexander Mattison and Zamir White injured. He's young and has a chance to prove himself and earn a permanent roster spot by the end of the season. He's the player I'd most like to add this week.

Calvin Austin

• Austin is not targeted enough to be a consistent starter, but he has scored long touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Russell Wilson likes to throw the ball deep, and Austin has the speed to be his deep target. I'd consider picking him up in deep leagues since he's young and can create a more consistent role in the offense by the end of the season.

Juwan Johnson

• Johnson will benefit most from Taysom Hill's injury. He's not necessarily the best player to add from a dynasty perspective, but he could help a tight-end-needy team for the last games of this season.

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Dynasty Trades

Mike Evans <=======> 2026 2nd round pick

• A team that decided to go into rebuild mode put Evans on the trading block and accepted this offer within an hour. The team that acquired Evans got stronger for his playoff push and will need Evans next week while Nico Collins is on a bye week. I think this move will help him make the playoffs. I'd prefer to have Evans rather than a second-round pick, whether I was rebuilding or contending. I'm confident that he has a few more productive years in him.

Jonathan Taylor <=======> Joe Mixon

• This player-for-player trade is pretty even, but I'd prefer to have Taylor in dynasty leagues since he's three years younger. I do worry about Anthony Richardson stealing touchdowns from Taylor, but the age difference is still a big enough factor to prefer Taylor in this trade. The teams that made this trade are both contending for the last two spots in the playoffs, and they won their games this week since Taylor and Mixon played so well. Mixon is on a bye next week, so the team that added Mixon will miss him during a must-win week.

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