Mon Nov 13th 2023

Week Ten Dynasty Takes

What a week in the NFL! It was the first time in history that five games were decided by game-winning field goals as time expired. It was a great week to watch the Red Zone channel and follow all of my dynasty teams. I watched every minute of it. After watching the games, here are some of my takeaways from a dynasty perspective.

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Week Ten Observations

Bye-Week Scramble

• This week will be remembered as the bye week scramble. Four fantasy productive teams were on a bye week. Not having the Eagles, Dolphins, Rams, and Chiefs players to pull from left me scrambling to the waiver wire in two leagues. In one league, bye weeks and injuries left me without Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Puka Nacua, my three highest-scoring players. In another very deep 14-team league where we start 11 positional players, I was almost forced to start players projected to score just 2-3 fantasy points. In both cases, I added Trenton Irwin off waivers and started him. I looked smart after he scored on the Bengals' first possession, but he cooled off after that. I added Nick Westbrook Ikhine in one of those leagues and started him, too. That was not so smart, as he gave me a goose egg. I will lose one of those games if Jerry Jeudy scores two points tonight, but thankfully, my team in the other did great and carried me to a win. I'll be glad to have all. I'm in first place in another league and lost this week despite having the second-highest score. I could have won if A.J. Brown and Puka Nacua had been in my lineup. At least the bye weeks are over for those players, and I can return to winning again.

Welcome Back

• Welcome back, Kyler Murray, and welcome to fantasy football, Trey McBride. Murray showed no limitations in his first week back and carried his team to one of those walk-off field goal wins. Murray has the rest of the season to prove that he's their future starter, not a quarterback in this year's class, and if he keeps winning, a quarterback will not fall to them anyway. He had a modest fantasy day that could have been better had Clayton Tune not come in for a brotherly shove touchdown, had Marquise Brown made a pretty difficult catch in the end zone, and had Michael Wilson's catch not been ruled short of the end zone. Still, Murray looked like his old self and will increase the dynasty value of the players around him. He helped McBride have the first breakout game of his career. McBride had 28% of the target share and caught eight passes for 131 yards, becoming the first Cardinal tight end to have a 100-yard game since 1989. McBride's dynasty value is skyrocketing now. It's again a reminder that dynasty managers must be patient with tight ends. Sometimes, they take three years to break out. This year's class appears to be an expectation with Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave, but there is reason to hold out hope for someone like Michael Mayer, who caught his first touchdown this week. Cheers to you if you drafted Trey McBride and held onto him the whole time. I got my only share of him off the waiver wire at the start of this season. The time of McBride's breakout could not be better since I am in first place in that league and just lost Dallas Goedert.

Packer Problems

• Jordan Love is not the answer for the Packers, and he's bringing down the talented young players around him. All of the Packers players are hard to trust right now, and no one is emerging as the top target or the lead back. A.J. Dillon had more fantasy points than Aaron Jones this week, and Jayden Reed led the receivers in fantasy points. Romeo Doubs scored another touchdown this week and has done well in the Red Zone, but he only caught two passes. Christian Watson is the receiver whose dynasty value has fallen the most this season. He's been the least productive of the three. I'm highly invested in Doubs and Reed, so I am glad I have what looks like the better of the three guys on my teams, but I don't start them with any confidence and have kept them on the bench in my shallower leagues. Love completed just 53% of his passes against Pittsburgh and is at 58% for the season. On average, he had 19.5 completions per game. Add completion to Luke Musgrave and Aaron Jones each week, and the Packers wide receivers can't get the volume they need to trust in fantasy lineups. It's Love's first year as a starter. I would not be surprised if it's his last. I was offered Love for Travis Kelce in a superflex league this week. After rejecting the trade, my comments were, "I don't know if he's their future starter."

Competent Committee

• The Lion's backfield was a strange reversal of how it started this season, but no one seemed hurt by it. I assumed that David Montgomery would resume his goal line role, at least even if Gibbs ate into his overall touches. Instead, Gibbs got two goal line carries for touchdowns. Montgomery surprised by doing Gibbs-like things when he broke off a 75-yard touchdown. Their roles have not been reversed. From now on, there will be no more roles. They will be a true tandem backfield. Even so, both can be trusted as starters in dynasty lineups for the rest of the season. Gibbs's managers are thrilled to see the roles evaporate and see that the Lions trust him on the goal line. I need to adjust my dynasty rankings now that that's the case, and he'll move up to a top-six back, putting him much closer to Bijan Robinson than I would have imagined a month ago.

Filling In Fine

• I've written about C.J. Stroud too much recently, so I'll refrain from doing so again. Instead, I'll comment on how amazing one of his targets has played in the last two weeks. Noah Brown has looked like a superstar the previous two weeks, and his final catch and run set the team up for their game-winning field goal on Sunday. Robert Woods and Nico Collins's injuries gave Brown a chance to play more in recent weeks, and he's earned a role at Houston's WR-3. He's had 325 yards receiving in the last two weeks. Now, the toothpaste can't get back in the tube. He'll continue to be a part of this well-coached and productive offense for the rest of the season. It's rare for a career backup to break out like this in his seventh season, but it happens. Dynasty managers who added him off waivers this season or kept him on their rosters were pleasantly surprised. He filled in just fine for Nico Collins this week and will keep Robert Woods on the sideline more as a result.

I Was Wrong

• I'm man enough to admit when I am wrong on players, and it's time for me to do so. I was wrong on Elijah Moore. I believed all the offseason hype about his chemistry with Deshaun Watson and the various ways the Browns would use him, and I traded for him in two leagues. That's not gone well for me. While he did score a touchdown this week, he's not had the volume I expected with his new team. He's averaging six targets per game but is only scoring six fantasy points per game. He's not seen my starting lineup this season, and I doubt he ever will.
• I was also wrong about Rachaad White. I faded him in rookie drafts, and I faded him even when he appeared to have the leading role when Leonard Fournette left the Buccaneers. I thought he could only be effective as a pass catcher, not an every-down back. I also believed Sean Tucker would quickly replace him. I was wrong. He's carrying the load with back-to-back 20-carry weeks, and he'd been a consistent RB-2 in dynasty lineups. While his awesome run-after-the-catch touchdown on Sunday was beautiful, he only averages 3.2 yards per carry. Even so, he was the 16th-ranked running back heading into this Sunday, so he's making it work for dynasty managers. 

Rookie Watch

• Quentin Johnston had a modest breakout game and scored the first touchdown of his career. He caught all four of his targets for 34 yards and the touchdown. He was out-produced by Jalen Guyton, so that's still concerning, but at least he gave his dynasty managers some reason for hope. Last rookie draft season, I was among the analysts fading Johnston because I did not think he did the little things well, especially in route-running. I did not get any shares of Johnston as a result. He could prove me wrong, though. Sunday was a step in the right direction.

Changing Scripts

• I've become concerned about Chris Olave's role with the Saints because Derek Carr has been a check-down artist all year. In Sunday's first half of the game, Olave had just one target. After Carr was injured and Jameis Winston came in, Olave was targeted eight times, and almost all of them were downfield, including his ridiculous touchdown catch in the back of the end zone. Olave is one of my most rostered players, and I have started him every week, but not with confidence. In one league where I am loaded at wide receiver, I benched him this week. It would have been a wise move had Winston not come into the game. Winston helps Olave have the best fantasy day of the season with 18.4 points. The Saints may not want to see more of Winston by dynasty managers do.

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Week Ten Waiver Wire

A.T. Perry

• Perry has seen his playtime increase each week after seeing his first time on the field three weeks ago. Out of nowhere, he led the team in snap counts on Sunday and scored the first touchdown of his career. Michael Thomas's injury gave him more opportunities, and he took advantage of them with a sick, contested touchdown catch. Hopefully, he got the eye of the coaches and will get more playing time going forward. Perry won with deep balls in college. If Jameis Winston plays while Derek Carr is hurt, he'll get even more deep balls. Perry was drafted in almost all of my rookie drafts but was dropped from most rosters in leagues without taxi squads. I'm glad I have him rostered in two of my three leagues with taxi squads, and I plan to add him to more rosters this week.

Myles Gaskin

• Gaskin is back with the Vikings now that Alexander Mattison got concussed on Sunday. He'll remain behind Ty Chandler if he gets the team's next start, but he's a handcuff back worth rostering in the meantime. He's been on and off my rosters several times this season as he bounced from the Vikings to the Rams and now back to the Vikings. He's a last-guy-on-the-roster type player all year, and I'll look to add him again this week in hopes that he'll finally get playtime.

Jalen Guyton

• Guyton moved off the injury report last week but was not involved much in his first week back. This week, however, he was targeted six times and caught four passes, including a touchdown. He'll lose his role when Josh Palmer returns and if Quentin Johnston improves, but for a few weeks, he's a player with rostering in deep leagues. He's Justin Herbert's WR-3 for a short time, anyway.

Tanner Hudson

• Hudson has had two games in a row scoring more than six fantasy points. He has earned Joe Burrow's trust in the passing game. Irv Smith and Drew Sample remain ahead of him on the depth chart, but Tanner is creating a role for himself and eating into their snap counts. He led the tight ends snap counts in weeks three and four. I'd only add him in very deep leagues or tight-end premium leagues, but he's a player I have never heard of who is now on my watch list.

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Week Ten Trades

Travis  Kelce and  Jared Goff <=====> Sam Howell, Jahan Dotson, Cole Kmet, and Cade Otton

• This is a trade I made in my 48-team league. I usually don't write about trades made in this league because there are so many trades, and the trades are hard to explain since it's a relegation league with four copies of each player. However, this is a trade I made, so I can explain it. After losing Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones in back-to-back weeks in this superflex league, I put Kelce and McCaffery on the trading block. I received several offers and made counteroffers before finally settling on this trade. This is a tight-end premium league with 1.75 PPR, so Kelce routinely finishes as a top 12 player overall, including over quarterbacks, so he's an extremely valuable asset. He and McCaffrey, my first two draft picks when the leagues started three years ago, have kept me in the top division of the relegation league up to this point. Still, my team is not good enough to contend with only one quarterback, so I am trying to sell my two best players. I'm a big believer in Sam Howell, so I was pleased to buy back some years by trading him for Goff and was pleased to get another share of Jahan Dotson, whose better days are ahead of him. Adding two up-and-coming tight ends made me willing to sell Kelce, too. We essentially have six flex spots in this league since we only have to start one QB, one RB, two WRs, and one TE, so getting four players for two also helped me accept this trade. The team I traded with is in the lowest division but is 9-0. Kelce could put him over the top and reading to make a run to a championship and a promotion to the top division, the division I'll get demoted from at the end of this year.

David Montgomery and Chase Claypool <=====> Dameon Pierce, Jameson Williams, and a 2024 2nd round pick

• There's an arms race in my Diehard league, as the top four teams have loaded their rosters, trading lots of picks for players. One contending team decided he needed Montgomery to help him on his championship run and was willing to give up a pick and two young players to do so. The team that gave away Montgomery now has three young players, one to be drafted and two with upside, even though they have significantly underperformed this season. It's a fair trade, given what each manager needs. We'll see if Montgomery is the piece that can put the contender over the top. If I were that manager, I would not have given away so much, if only because the other top three teams have done the same, and winning a championship will be very tough in this league because of it.

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