Mon Dec 30th 2024

Week Seventeen Review

I missed a week of writing and podcasting due to travel and family time during the holiday, but I’m delighted to be back this week to report on week seventeen NFL action and championship week in dynasty leagues. I’m pleased to announce that I made the Super Bowl in three of my nine dynasty leagues. I have one championship wrapped up, and I am in a dogfight in the other two, which will be decided in the Monday night game. I’ll report back next week with the final results.
 
This week was one of the most unique fantasy championship weeks in history. There were two games on Wednesday, one on Thursday, three on Saturday, eight on Sunday, and one left to go on Monday night. Following the games and cheering on my dynasty teams was a blast.
 
After watching all of the championship week games, here are my thoughts from a dynasty perspective.

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Dynasty Impact

Oh My!

• One of the most fun and fabulous parts of this season has been the incredible comeback seasons from Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Mayfield was the first pick in the 2018 draft, and Sam Darnold was the third. Baker had a great rookie season with the Browns but struggled after that, losing his starting job. Darnold struggled from his first year with the Jets and later lost his starting job. They’ve each played for several teams since leaving the teams that drafted them until landing starting jobs this season and having the best season of their careers six years after being drafted. Baker threw five touchdowns on Sunday, leading his team and his dynasty managers to victories after scoring 38 fantasy points. He’ll finish this season as the fourth-highest-scoring quarterback in the league. What a year for Baker! Darnold had a career-high in passing yards on Sunday with 377 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll finish the season as the eighth-highest-scoring quarterback. Their incredible seasons should cause dynasty managers to take a more patient approach to quarterbacks, especially with quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Mayfield signed a new contract with Tampa Bay this year, while Darnold is set to be a free agent. The Vikings planned to move on to J.J. McCarthy next year as their starting quarterback, but Darnold’s excellent play has forced them to consider re-signing him. If he does not start for the Vikings next year, he will be with another team. It will be one of the most intriguing offseason stories of the year.

Oh No!

• Dynasty managers with Texans, Bears, and Seahawks in their starting lineups experienced the pain of watching all their players underperform as these teams’ offenses scored a total of eleven points. Houston did not score an offensive point, but only a safety. The Bears’ offense could only muster up one field goal, while the Seahawks kicked two field goals against the Bears for the win. Managers with Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud, Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Zach Charbonnet saw their winning percentage fall during the Wednesday and Thursday slate of games. Thursday’s Seattle vs. Chicago game was the lowest-scoring game of the season, which of course, takes place during championship week. D.J. Moore was the only player on those three teams who helped dynasty managers in their championship games. At the time of my writing this part of the article (Friday morning), there are many games with predicted rain and bad weather as there was Thursday night in Chicago. It could be a week with many low-scoring games, which would come as a relief to those who have fallen behind because of the terrible play of the Texans, Bears, and Seahawks. If games are indeed rainy, they may still have a chance in their championship games.

Ouch!

• The worst injury from a dynasty perspective since the last time I wrote was Tank Dell’s gruesome knee injury. He dislocated his kneecap and tore ligaments in his knee and will now likely miss the entire 2025 season. This injury dramatically impacts Dell’s dynasty value. Missing an entire year of playtime gives other younger receivers a chance to surpass him on the depth chart and solidify starting roles. John Methchie can relate. He missed his entire rookie season while enduring cancer treatments. It’s ironic that he’d be the benefactor of Dell’s injury, but it appears to be the case as he led the team in targets this week, even ahead of Nico Collins. That won’t happen often, but he has a chance to solidify the WR-2 role by the end of the season and start next year in that role. Sadly, Dell will have to wait a year to try to make a Metchie-like comeback. Kenneth Walker was placed on IR this week, giving Zach Charbonnet one more chance to seize the starting job. Walker has been injured every season of his career. It’s time for the Seahawks to consider switching roles by giving Charbonnet the leading role next year. Charbonnet was a bust this week when he had the least amount of fantasy points this season when starting the game, but he’ll have at least one more chance to prove something next week. As a manager with four shares of Charbonnet, I hope the Seahawks find a way to sneak into the playoffs so he can get a few more starts and give his coaches more to think about in the offseason. Things got worse over the weekend when Tua Tagovailoa, Tony Pollard, and Chuba Hubbard were ruled out. On the Super Bowl weekend, dynasty managers were left without many of their starting players.

 

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Stock Up

Michael Penix

• Penix took over for Kirk Cousins two weeks ago, and he’s looked decent in the first two starts of his career. He did not have to do a lot in his first start last week against the Giants since the Giants threw two pick-sixes and fell behind quickly. Penix did not throw a touchdown pass that game, but he did throw an interception that was entirely the fault of Kyle Pitts. Penix led the Falcons in an epic duel with fellow rookie Jayden Daniels this week. He came up on the short end in overtime, but he proved he’s a worthy starter in only his second start. Pitts redeemed himself with a touchdown, and Drake London had 106 yards receiving. He’s the future for Atlanta, and their controversial first-round pick does not look so silly after all. Dynasty managers who drafted him late are elated to have a starting quarterback way earlier than they expected!

Jalen McMillan

• McMillan has been on fire since week fourteen. He has caught one or more touchdowns in each of the last four weeks, including two more this Sunday. He’s benefited from Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard’s injuries, making him Baker Mayfield’s second-most targeted player. His strong end of the season gives the Buccaneers confidence to move on from Chris Godwin next season. He’s earned the right to be the WR-2 for the Buccaneers next season opposite the never-aging wonder, Mike Evans. McMillan was one of my most drafted rookies last season, so I am very pleased to see him prove his worth and become a reliable starter in deep leagues. He only has room to grow. On Sunday morning, I took a last-minute chance by elevating McMillan from my taci squad and into my starting lineup ahead of Tyreek Hill. He outscored Hill by 3.5 points, giving me a chance tonight when I’m ahead by ten points, and my opponent has Isaac Guerendo in his lineup. If I win the game by less than 3.5 points, I’ll look like a genius. 

Chig Okonkwo

• Okonkwo has come on strong the last few weeks. Mason Rudolph targeted him like crazy, with ten targets two weeks ago, eleven a week ago, and seven this week. Believe it or not, he was on the waiver wire in several of my leagues. Wise managers quickly picked him up in those leagues, including myself in one league. In the other two, savvy managers beat me to it. Tennessee is sure to make a quarterback change next year, so Okonkwo will have to prove that he can earn targets from whomever they draft or sign as a free agent. Even so, they should have a better quarterback next season who can elevate Okonkwo’s play. Tight ends often take time to break out. Okonkwo is doing so in his third season in the NFL.

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Stock Down

D.K. Metcalf

• Metcalf has lost his leading role in Seattle. This year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) has not only surpassed Tyler Lockett on the depth chart but he’s surpassed Metcalf, too. Since Metcalf returned from his injury in week eleven, JSN has out-targeted him 58 to 42, and he’s outscored him 98 to 57 in fantasy points. Metcalf is still a great player and an every-week starter in dynasty lineups, but his ceiling has dropped considerably as JSN has passed him by this year. He needs to be seen as a WR-2 on Seattle and a WR-3 in dynasty lineups. 

Javonte Williams

• Somehow, Williams led the team in running back snaps with 37%, yet he did not get a single carry and caught one pass for negative yards. There’s no way that the Broncos will re-sign him. They’ve made their plans clear by not giving him enough touches this season. He’s now destined to be signed as a backup with another team next season, causing his dwindling dynasty stock to fall even further down than it already has this season.

 Chris Olave

• Olave has not seen the field in weeks, and he’s not likely to play next week. His injuries and lack of on-field play this season have caused him to fall down my dynasty rankings. This year’s rookie class of wide receivers has been amazing, causing young and hopeful guys like Olave to fall behind in my dynasty rankings. Plus, the Saints need to completely blow up their team and rebuild. They need a new coach and a new quarterback to make Olave productive, but I fear they need a few years to do so. Olave is a fantastic player, but his injuries and the team’s situation make him far less valuable than he could be on another team. 

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Young Guns

Xavier Worthy

• Worthy has run very hot the last three weeks of the season as the Chiefs have finally got him more involved in the offense. He’s been a huge part of their last three wins with eleven, eleven, and nine targets in the last three weeks. Plus, he’s had two or three carries each of those weeks, too. He’s finally getting the touches and making more of them, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games. Two years ago, Andy Reid waited until the end of the season to trust Rashee Rice with more touches, and when he did, Rice exploded on the scene. It looks like he’s doing the same with Worthy, and dynasty managers who have ridden Worthy the last three weeks have been rewarded, including myself.

Brock Bowers

• Unless George Kittle has 15 or more points tonight, Bowers will end the season as the highest-scoring tight end this season. It would be the second year in a row where a rookie tight end leads the league in fantasy points. Unlike Sam Laporta, I am confident Bowers will get even better in the years to come. He set two records on Sunday with the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end and the most receptions by any rookie ever. Give Bowers a better quarterback and a new coaching staff, and he will only get better. If I were to redraft this year’s rookie class in a one-quarterback league, I would draft Bowers third behind only Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas.  

Malik Nabers

• Nabers had the best game of his rookie season with 171 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Like Bowers, he’s been a beast this year, even while playing with several different terrible quarterbacks. Give him a new quarterback and coach next year, and he’ll be even better. Nabers is on pace to pass Puka Nacua’s record for number of receptions as a rookie. He would have been on top if it had not been for Bowers. He needs just two catches next week to pass Nacua. If I were to redraft this class, it would be hard to decide who to take first, Nabers or Brian Thomas. Both are outstanding players who played for the same college team. Amazing!

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Old-Man Strength

Mark Andrews

• As terrible as Andrews played at the start of the season, he quickly turned things around and became the reliable touchdown-scoring tight end he has always been. It turns out he was not washed up or being replaced by Isaiah Likely. He has old-man strength and can’t be stopped again. He’s scored a touchdown in five consecutive weeks and now has ten touchdown catches on the season. He’s back to being Lamar Jacksons favorite target in the Red Zone. The Ravens draw up plays for him in the Red Zone. He only has two catches this week, but one was a 67-yard catch and run, and the other was a one-yard touchdown. Touchdowns are the best dynasty managers can hope for at the tight end position, and Andrews continues to deliver.

Jaylen Warren

• For the second season in a row, Warren had outplayed Najee Harris at the end of the season. He did so in each of the last two weeks. He’s far more explosive and agile than Harris in the run game. He’s a better pass catcher and better with the run after catch, too. He’s had five catches in each of the last two weeks. I hope his strong play at the end of this season and into the NFL playoffs will cause the coaches to give him the leading role next year. Harris’s contract expires after this season, giving Warren a chance at the full-time role next season. He’s a better player, and he deserves it.

Tee Higgins

• Higgins possibly played his final home game as a Bengal, leaving his mark with three touchdowns and 36 fantasy points. He carried dynasty managers to championships this week. Higgins is a monster and deserves to be a WR-1 next year. Joe Borrow has said that he wants Higgins back on the Bengals next year, but he doesn’t call the shots. His dynasty value is arguably better as a WR-2 in Cincinnati than as a WR-1 on another less potent team. It will be an interesting offseason. Higgins and Sam Darnold will be the top two free agents to follow this offseason. It will be one of the biggest stories of the offseason.

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Offseason

While the regular season has come to an end, I hope you will continue to read my articles and listen to my podcasts. Here’s a bit of what the offseason schedule will look like for me.
 
Over the next six weeks, we’ll review the 2024 season. I’ll write a post-season awards article. Take a critical look at what I got right and what I got wrong last season. I’ll re-evaluate all of my 2024 trades, and I’ll diagnose my rosters and help you learn to do the same.
 
It’s important not to simply let the season end. Spend the month of January with me, critically evaluating your teams and your processes. It will make you a better dynasty manager.
 
Behind the scenes, I will be working on my 2025 rookie rankings. After studying the class and watching player tape, I will put together my 2025 rookie rankings, which I will post the day after the NFL Super Bowl.
 
For the next six weeks after that, I’ll share my thoughts about the rookie class and players who sign with other teams in free agency prior to the NFL draft. After that, it’s rookie draft time.

I hope you’ll be a Dynasty Freek and keep in touch this offseason!

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