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Thu Sep 12th 2019

Week One Review

What A Week For Rookies

Week one is finally in the books!  Here are some of my overall impressions after watching all of the games along with comments on Dynasty and NFL transactions that were made this week.

Top Five Observations

Rookie Wide Receivers Break Out

  • 7 rookies scored among the top 60 WRs in week one.  Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin scored among the top 12 WRs, while other rookies like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Preston Williams, KeeSean Johnson, and Miles Boykin scored among the top 60 WRs.  It normally takes WRs 2-3 years to make this kind of impact.  Granted, it's only week one, but this WR class already shows signs of competing with the incredible rookie WR class of 2014 which broke out in their rookie year.

Rookie Running Backs Poised to Break Out

  • None of the rookie RBs broke out except for Josh Jacobs who finished as the RB #7 for the week.  His #7 finish was mostly based on volume and touchdowns.  Other rookies like Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and Devin Singletary looked to be more impressive RBs than the veterans in front of them.  They all split time in week one, but it appears that they will become the #1 RB within the next few weeks.  Each of them looked sharp and only in need of picking up the final nuances of their offenses to gain lead roles in their offenses.

New Head Coaches Mostly Struggled

  • It's only week one, but only Zac Taylor with Cincinnati had a great debut.  His offensive production minus AJ Green was impressive, and he may have learned how to make John Ross a star.  All of the other new head coaches, however, really struggled to produce fantasy-relevant players.  Kingsbury (Arizona), Kitchens (Cleveland), Fangio (Denver), LaFleur (Green Bay), Flores (Miami), Gase (NY Jets), and Arians (Tampa Bay) all struggled in week one.  It's too early to write anyone off yet, but it was noticeable to see how the new head coaches did not help fantasy teams in week one.

New OCs Mostly Succeeded

  • Not all new OCs produced in week one, but the new OCs where the head coach remained the same did exceptionally well.  Kellan Moore (Cowboys) showed a more diverse offense and play calling resulting a #2 QB scoring week for Dak Prescott.  Greg Roman (Baltimore) unleashed Lamar Jackson on a defeated Miami defense.  Arthur Smith (Tennessee) got Mariota performing and Derrick Henry involved in the passing game.  Kevin Stefanski (Minnesota) stuck to his (or head coach Zimmer's) run-first approach and destroyed Atlanta.  John DeFilippo (Jacksonville) showed that they can establish a passing game, even with a back-up QB.  Darrell Bevell (Detroit) proved not to be a run-first team in week one but a diverse offense that utilized their first-round TE, TJ Hockenson.

It's Not Time To Panic

  • Many players had an awful week one performance.  There is no need to panic, overreact, or sell low.  Guys like these who had awful weeks one will bounce back just fine so don't panic.
  • QB: Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger
  • RB: Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Kerryon Johnson
  • WR: Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Juju Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham
  • TE: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz

Week One Waiver Moves

As a reminder, I play in dynasty leagues that roster 27-30 players.  This is a list of the players I was most eager to pick up this week.

1. Chris Thompson

  • The only good thing about losing in week one is that I was able to pick up Thompson in two leagues.  He's a great PPR target on a team that will likely be playing from behind a lot this year.  He had 7 receptions for 68 yards on Sunday after the Redskins fell behind.  Guice's injury ensures him more touches going forward.  He's explosive and a weapon in the passing game, but has a history of injuries.  As long as he's healthy, he could be a solid flex play in PPR or provide depth and start for a team when the bye weeks start to hit.

2. Phillip Dorsett

  • Dorsett showed chemistry with Brady some last year and a lot during the preseason.  I assume he was only on the waiver wire because of all the WR movement in New England this offseason.  They draft N'keal Harry.  Undrafted free agent, Jakobi Meyers, plays awesomely in the preseason.  Josh Gordon comes back and they sign Antonio Brown.  It's a circus in Boston, but Dorsett was the star in week one with 4 receptions for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He's worth holding until we can see where the dust settles.

3. Raheem Mostert

  • This is a short-term pick up since he will split time with Matt Breida until Tevin Coleman heals from his ankle injury.  I only tried to pick him up in leagues where I also have Breida.  He looks good, and Shanahan always finds a way to give his RBs fantasy points.  Breida often gets injured too, so he could become a starter for a short time if Breida and Coleman are injured at the same time.

4. Danny Amendola

  • He was a target monster on Sunday afternoon with 13 targets.  He appears to have a role like that of Golden Tate who Stafford loved to target.  He's worth a pick up in PPR leagues, especially.  He went for $68 in one of my $100 FAAB leagues this week!  He's also the player on this list that I am most confident will get injured.  The history is too consistent on him.

5. Blake Jarwin

  • This might be the best upside dynasty value on this list.  He is young and appears to have a larger role in Dallas's new creative offense.  He was the 8th highest scoring TE in week one, catching all three of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown.  He was schemed open as the #1 target on his touchdown catch.  Coaches have called Jarwin one of their best pure athletes on the team.  I like to hold guys like this on my roster as my 3rd upside TE.  I picked him up in two leagues this last week.

Week One Trades

Here are the trades that were made in my leagues this week.

Phillip Dorsett <===> Dion Lewis

  • The uncertainty in the WR depth chart in New England makes me like the Dion Lewis side of the trade here, though it's a pretty fair trade.  This was definitely a buy-low/sell-high trade after Dorsett had a great week and Lewis had an awful week.

Darwin Thompson <===> Diontae Johnson and James Washington

  • After Donte Moncrief's awful play on Sunday night, I could see why one owner would be willing to go after both of these Pittsburg WRs.  That said, I still think I'd like to have the Darwin side of this trade.  His value dropped a bit after McCoy was traded to Kansas City, but Darwin could still become the #1 RB in Kansas City by the end of the year or by next year.  This trade is a wait-and-see trade for sure.  I'd rather wait and see on Darwin Thompson.

Malcolm Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, Terry McLaurin <===> Dallas Goedert, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and Tevin Coleman

  • This is a trade I made so naturally, I will be biased.  It's a fair trade though, so no one was robbed.  I have the Goedert, JJ, and Coleman side of the trade.  I was willing to make the trade for a few reasons, even though I love Terry McLaurin.  In this league, I had 4 QBs.  I was eager to get rid of one so that I could roster one more player at RB or WR.  I also have Zack Ertz on this team and had been trying to trade for Goedert to lock up the Philly TEs and because I have Goedert ranked as my #8 TE overall already.  I have Matt Breida in this league so was happy to give up Brown to get the 49ers backfield locked up even though Coleman is currently injured.  Finally, as much as I love McLaurin and know he's already a starter in Washington, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has moved up to my #3 ranked rookie WR so trusted my rankings and was willing to trade McLaurin even though he broke out in the first game of his NFL career.  The other owner here wins immediately, but I believe I will win in the long run with these guys (Goedert and JJ) that I rank higher than most analysts.

Week One Injury Impact

Tevin Coleman

  • This is simple.  I already had Breida ranked higher than Coleman, so now he can prove it to everyone else that does not.  As mentioned in the waiver comments, Raheem Mostert is also worth an add given Coleman's injury.  He should be back healthy in 5-6 weeks, but Breida will still be a better player.

Hunter Henry

  • This is very disappointing news.  They claim he will be back in 5-6 weeks, but JJ Watt had the same injury last year and missed the season because of it.  Mike Williams should get more red-zone looks now (though he has an injury now too) and Kennan Allen and Austin Ekeler should benefit with more targets.

Nick Foles

  • At first look, this would seem to be an immediate downgrade to all Jacksonville pass catchers.  However, I am not so sure.  Gardner Minshew looked pretty good in relief.  I would bump all Jacksonville players down a bit, but not as much as others, I suspect.  I didn't mention him in the waiver wire section because I wanted to mention is here, but I picked him up in one of my leagues because I want to see what he can do in the next 6-8 weeks before Foles can come back.  He's not inept.  He could play well and will this job.  I want to wait and see.

Tyreek Hill

  • This is a real bummer for everyone in Kansas City.  If Hill cannot play for 6-8 weeks, I'd bump down Mahomes and all of the KC RBs, but bump up the value of Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman.  In Andy Reid we trust.  He will find a way to keep scoring points, but a guy the caliber of Hill will make Kansas City score less than they could with him.

Devin Funchess

  • I am eager to see how this will give Deon Cain and Parris Campbell a chance to shine.  Both received action in Sunday's game.  Campbell seems locked into  a more versatile role whereas Cain should become an every-down wideout for the Colts.  I am more hopeful about how this will affect Cain's value than I am for Campbell.  Campbell's role and dynasty value should remain about the same.  Cain's role and value, however, will change significantly.

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