Fri Oct 25th 2019
Week Seven Review
A Very Unpredicable Week
Week seven is in the books, and it was a very unpredictable week. Here are some of my overall impressions after watching all of the games along with comments on the dynasty and NFL transactions that were made this week.
Top Five Observations
First-quarter injuries drastically impacted fantasy teams.
- David Johnson played a few plays and was never heard from again, even though reports before the game indicated he would play. Instead, Chase Edmunds was the one busting through holes and piling up 150 total yards and three touchdowns. In most cases, this put the Johnson and Edmunds owners on tilt - one for starting Johnson and the other for not starting Edmunds. Adam Theilen at least scored a touchdown on the play where he was injured and lost for the game. He likely would have had a great game because his back-up, Olabisi Johnson, turned 8 targets into 4 receptions and a touchdown of his own. Kerryon Johnson and Will Fuller finally lived up to their injury-prone label and scored a total of 4 points between them before leaving the game. These injuries and many other factors made this a wacky week of scoring.
The weather made a big difference this week.
- San Francisco played one of the sloppiest games I've ever seen in Washington this week. Shanahan's revenge narrative never got off the ground because neither team could run or pass in the pouring rain leading to a 9-0 victory for the 49ers and a lot of losses to our fantasy teams with players in this game. The Giants hosted the Cardinals in the rain which led to dropped passes from Evan Engram and an awful game from all of the fantasy-relevant players on the Giants. Arizona's players we equally pathetic minus the previously mentioned breakout performance by Chase Edmunds. Kyler Murray had 38 fantasy points the week before. This week he had a measly 7 fantasy points. Needless to say, his receivers suffered too. These rain-filled games made for a wacky week.
Surprise players explode on our benches.
- Some of the highest-scoring players were on a lot of team's benches this week too. Jacoby Brissett unloaded on the Texans with four touchdown passes and 39 fantasy points. He was only started in the deepest of leagues or most injured of teams, I'm sure. All week long fantasy analysts wrote about how there were many quarterbacks worth starting over Aaron Rodgers this week since the Green Bay offense was not producing like it usually does. Rodgers, known to listen to the media and then say he does not listen to the media, must have been listening because he threw for five touchdowns and ran for another in his 56-point explosion. I benched him for Jimmy Garoppolo in one of my leagues and was infuriated when I saw the rain in Washington and the touchdowns being thrown by Rodgers. Thankfully, unbeknownst to me, my co-owner switched Rodgers into the line-up just before kickoff. Props to co-owners! Hardly anyone started Marvin Jones, but this week he rips up the Vikings secondary, scoring four touchdowns of his own. If you were playing against these players, you likely had that percentage of winning icon tilting in your favor before the games. By halftime of these games, you did not.
Surprise players we wished were on our benches.
- Then there were the players that everyone started. Many of which laid an egg on Sunday. Many dependable players who had been consistently contributing to our teams were duds on Sunday. Matt Ryan scores 3 points, Phillip Lindsay 4 points, Evan Engram 1 point, Marlon Mack 7 points, Kenny Golladay 3 points, and Mark Andrews 5 points. The combination of surprise players exploding and stud players coming up lame or injured set owners on tilt during this very unpredictable week seven.
Some historically reliable players are being surpassed.
- Some players that we've counted on for many years seem to be being passed by others on their teams. Brandin Cooks is one of my most owned players because he has had more than 1000 yards receiving every year of his career, even while playing for three different teams. He's barely on pace to do so this year. The increased volume of passes to Kupp and Everett makes me believe he is not going to do so this year. I love Zach Ertz and own him in several leagues too, but I now fear he is being passed by Dallas Goedert. Goedert has outscored Ertz each of the last two weeks. Philadelphia is playing a lot of two-tight end sets and Goedert is simply getting open more often than Ertz. Ertz still has the bulk of the snap counts, but not by as much as you would think. Since week four, Goedert has been within 10-20% of the snap counts as Ertz. I love Goedert and have him ranked higher than almost any analyst I follow. Thankfully, I have Goedert in several leagues too, including leagues where I also have Ertz. This week I may have to decide which of the two to start.
Week Seven Injury Impact
It was a light week as far as injuries go, but there were a few significant ones.
- Mahomes hurt his knee Thursday night on a failed quarterback sneak. Early reports were of a torn patella tendon and that he'd be lost for the year. Later the news became more optimistic since he had only dislocated a knee cap and would only miss 3-4 weeks. He's been doing some light work in practice already this week so he should not miss as much time as expected. Matt Moore combined with Andy Reid's play-calling should keep Kansas City's offense afloat, but there is no way this does not bring down the weekly value of all of the fantasy options in Kansas City for the few weeks Mahomes is out. No dynasty value is lost, but start/sit decisions may be more difficult in the coming weeks with players like LeSean, McCoy, Damien Williams, and Sammy Watkins. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are too good to bench even with Moore at quarterback.
- Ryan hurt his ankle during the end of the game while trying to collect garbage points like he has done so often this year. Coach Quinn indicated that he could play on Sunday. I think this is a short-term injury. If he does not play, I'd still start Austin Hooper and Julio Jones, but likely sit everyone else. Ryan has carried a lot of our fantasy teams even though he cannot carry the Falcons to wins this year, so this will be quite a loss if he is gone for long. I don't think he will be.
- Johnson's injury carries with it a little more dynasty concern in my opinion. He has a track record of being injured at this point. Chase Edmunds looked great on Sunday and his play-time had been increasing a bit each week while Johnson's was decreasing. There is plenty of room in the Arizona offense for both Edmunds and Johnson to score points, but Johnson's upside may be headed down. As for now, Edmunds looks like he will get the start this week and if he plays well again Johnson's value may have hit its peak.
- This was the knock on Kerryon coming out of college. He is ending his sophomore year on the IR (most likely) just like last year. This time it is a different knee, which to me makes matters worse. I don't think Ty Johnson has the talent to play well enough to earn a starting role over Johnson next year, but that does not mean that Kerryon's value is not dropping. It is falling based on the fact that he is injured yet again. I suspect the Detroit offense will become more pass-heavy. I like the opportunity T.J. Hockenson and Kenny Golladay will have to increase their dynasty value at the end of the season. Matthew Stafford is surprisingly the 7th highest scoring quarterback per game already. He's a sneaky guy to try to trade for now.
- Theilen injured his hamstring on a touchdown catch and will not be well enough to play four days later on Thursday night. I bet this is a short-term injury for Theilen so I don't see this as having much dynasty impact. Olabisi Johnson was a hot waiver wire pick up this week, but I was not interested in him because Diggs and Theilen are the guys to own in Minnesota until they draft someone who really can compete with them and eventually become a starter.
- Like Kerryon Johnson, Will Fuller is again living up to his injury-prone label. He's going to miss several weeks of action, giving Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee a chance to prove themselves. Stills already seems to have earned a more active role ahead of Coutee, which was quite a surprise given they offseason hype on Coutee and the fact that Stills was traded to Houston just before the season started. I need to move Stills up in my rankings and move Coutee down quite a bit. This could be Coutee's last chance to earn a more prominent role. If he does not, he's going to be the gadget player like he was last week when he scored on a running play.
Week Seven Waiver Moves
As a reminder, I play in dynasty leagues that roster 27-30 players. It was an awful week on the waiver wire, especially since Ty Johnson was already on a roster in all of my leagues. What can I say? I play with active sharp owners so the waiver wire is super slim. Ty Johnson was dropped in one of my leagues a few weeks ago, but I quickly picked him up that week. I'm very happy about that move now.
1. Jonnu Smith
- Walker's nagging injuries have given Jonnu Smith another chance to become the starting tight end in Tennessee. We've seen this before though each of the last two years and he was unable to steal the job from Walker. This year, however, there is a new quarterback since Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota. This gives me hope for this to be the third-year breakout for Smith. He caught all three of his targets from Tannehill last week and they were deep passes too, averaging 21 yards per reception. I like his chances to break out. I picked him up in every league where I was weak at tight end. I think I beat people to the punch on this one because I only had to pay $1 FAAB for him.
2. Chris Conley
- I did not make any claims for him this week, but I did want to mention him here. He's been involved in the Jacksonville offense, surprisingly playing more snaps than Chark and Westbrook, but he's still the third target in that bunch. I don't like having #3 wide receivers on my rosters overall, but he has played well enough to consider picking up.
3. Mike Davis
- This is a sneaky speculative move that I only made in one league. Chicago's running game was awful last week. David Montgomery had 2 carries while Tarik Cohen had 3 carries. Chicago's coaching staff got away from the running game and paid the price last week. They are going to emphasize the run going forward because they know Mitch Trubisky cannot pass them to victories. I've not liked what I've seen overall in Montgomery this year. At some point coach Nagy has to give Mike Davis some carries to see if he can do more with them. If you have a droppable guy on your roster, I would make this preemptive pick this week. I did.
Week Seven Trades
There were three trades in my leagues this week. Here are some of my thoughts on the trades and which side I favor.
Mike Gesicki <======> DeVante Parker
- The team that traded for Gesicki traded Chris Herndon to me the week before. They likely just wanted some youth with upside to replace Herndon. They have a lot of middle to upper-tier receivers so they were willing to part with Parker. The guy that traded for Parker did not need Gesicki since he is loaded at tight end with Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, and Vance McDonald. Parker has been playing well and the coaching staff seems to like him, unlike the previous coaching staff. I like the Parker side of this trade. He's at least shown that he can have a fantasy impact whereas Gesiki has not.
Tom Brady and Demarcus Robinson <======> Marcus Mariota, Washington Redskins, and a 2020 2nd
- This was a win-now move for a 5-2 team that just lost Mahomes for a few weeks. I can see why they want to strike while the iron is hot. Mariota and the Redskins are worthless in this trade. The second-round pick next year is where the value lies. The team that got the 2020 second-round pick already has four 2020 first-round picks and now has three 2020 second-round picks. I like his side of this trade. He will dominate the 2020 draft, but if Brady wins some fantasy games for the other team until Mahomes comes back to lead them to a championship they'll be just fine with what they gave away.
John Brown <======> Latavius Murray
- I like the John Brown side here. I might see it a little different if the Murray owner also had Kamara, but he does not. This is a short term move, though Murray is one of the best back-up running backs to hold as evidenced by his outstanding game last week while Kamara was out. Still, I think John Brown is playing as good as he ever has. He's the clear #1 wide receiver in Buffalo and will have a few more years to improve his connection with his quarterback, Josh Allen. I'll take a #1 wide receiver on an NFL team over a #2 running back on a team every time.
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