Tue Nov 8th 2022

Week Nine Review

Week nine did not provide the fantasy fireworks we saw last week, apart from a few players, but most of the NFL games came down to the wire and were fun to watch on Sunday. I enjoyed watching games throughout the day, even though my fantasy teams struggled quite a bit, and the teams I was rooting against as a Cowboy fan ended up winning their games. It's still a blast to follow all the games on Sunday.

After following all the week-nine games, here are some of my observations from a dynasty perspective.

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Week Nine Observations

The NFL trade deadline occurred the day after my last article was posted. It was an active trading day, too, shaking up the dynasty value of many players.

Trade-deadline Winners

• T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings, which immediately crushed the dynasty value of Irv Smith. If his first week with the Vikings is any indication, Hockenson deserves a little boost to his dynasty value. Hockenson jumped right into the starting lineup for the Vikings and contributed a team-high nine receptions for 70 yards. Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than Jared Goff, and the Vikings' offense is also playing better than the Lions. Hockenson did not have much room to move up in my dynasty rankings, but this trade solidified him in the second tier of my dynasty rankings with room for improvement. Hockenson has lacked consistency throughout his career, but the Vikings will make him a more reliable fantasy starter.
• Jeff Wilson got traded to Miami after they traded away Chase Edmonds to Denver, and Wilson was the most active and productive running back with the Dolphins on his first week with the team. Wilson saw his dynasty value plummet after Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers and bounce right back after he was traded to the Dolphins, whose coach, Mike McDaniel, led the 49ers offense for years with Mostert and Wilson splitting work. McDaniel brought Mostert to the Dolphins in free agency and traded to get Wilson on the team, too. Wilson's presence has already impacted Mostert's fantasy impact and lowered his dynasty value a bit. Wilson and Mostert are older backs whose dynasty value cannot rise too high, but they are valuable players to roster and help teams until the Dolphins draft the running back of their future.
• Nyheim Hines did not make an impact on his first week with the Bills, but he will see his role increase as the season develops. The Bills have been grasping to find a passing-game running back since the offseason when they tried to sign J.D. McKissic in free agency and drafted James Cook in the draft. Now they traded for Nyheim Hines. They have a plan for Hines, and we'll see it in play once he acclimates to the team. He didn't prove it this week, but he will be a dynasty winner on the Bills. His addition to the team quenches the dynasty value of James Cook significantly and Devin Singletary slightly. Singletary will keep his role as the most-used first and second-down back, but Hines will get the passing downs, and hurry-up offense plays.

Trade-deadline Losers

• Zack Moss and Chase Edmonds are dynasty losers after they were traded to the Colts and Broncos, respectively. They have top-tier dynasty running backs ahead of them on their rosters and even have backs capable of demoting them to third-string backs on their teams. Moss and Edmonds lost the most dynasty value last week.

Trade-deadline Undecided

• Then there are a few players for whom I need more time to be ready to call winners or losers with their new teams. The verdict is still out on these players, so I am not prepared to take a stand on them and would be reluctant to trade or acquire them after they landed on new teams.
• Calvin Ridley got traded to Jacksonville, where he can try to revive his career after a year-long suspension for gambling. Ridley was once a top-ten to twenty dynasty receiver, but his mental health issues and gambling suspension have caused his value to drop the last two seasons while he's seldom been on the field. If he can get his mind right, he has several more years of production ahead of him, but that's an assumption I'm only ready to make once I hear from him or see him on the field. Jacksonville has a lot of outs in the complex trade they made for Ridley, so if his mind is not right, they can let him go pretty quickly.
• Chase Claypool was traded to Chicago, where their offense is drastically improving while their passing volume is still among the league's worst. He should quickly settle into the WR-2 position behind Darnell Mooney, but the Bears need to make significant improvements to their passing game to make their WR-2 viable from a fantasy perspective. Justin Fields is improving every week, but he'll need to pass more and run less to cause Claypool's dynasty value to rise. I wonder if he can do it.
• Kadarius Toney was traded to the Chiefs and received the first target of Mahomes on Sunday night but was not involved in the offense much beyond that catch and one more where they force-fed him the ball. I've always questioned Toney's mental makeup, which has kept me from moving him very high in my dynasty rankings. He cannot become the new Tyreek Hill for Mahomes and the Chiefs. He could carve out a role, but not a big one on a team that has distributed the ball to many players this season, with Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster receiving the lion's share of the targets. Even if he proves me wrong and gets his mind right, he's got a lot of competition now and in the future.

Game-Wrecker

• Joe Mixon was this week's game-wrecker. This after a terrible game on Monday night last week. The Bengals altered their game plan radically this week and fed Mixon 22 carried (most in the first half) compared to the top eight he received last week, and he carried the team and fantasy teams to victories. He's the player dynasty rosters could not overcome this week, scoring 55 fantasy points with five touchdowns. PFF metrics showed Mixon to be one the least inefficient running backs in the NFL when comparing his actual fantasy points to predicted fantasy points. It was just a matter of time until it balanced out, and he finally caught up this week. Hopefully, he can be more consistent in his production for the rest of the season. The Bengals have their bye week this week. I hope they use the time to realize they need to be more committed to the run, even when their offensive line is struggling. If so, this is undoubtedly not Mixon's only 100-yard rushing and multiple-touchdown game of the season. Congrats if you had him on your rosters, and apologies if you played against him. I had one of each this week.

Better Late Than Never

• Two once highly thought-of players had the best fantasy games of their young careers and are getting more involved in their offenses. Cole Kmet scored two touchdowns on Sunday and had his season-high in targets. He scored 19.5 fantasy points, the best of his three-year career. As Justin Fields and the Bears' offense improves, Kmet should see his role and fantasy production increase, something his managers have been waiting a long time to see. Meanwhile, Terrace Marshall scored the first touchdown of his career and has seen his snap percentage grow to more than 90% since Robbie Anderson was traded. Managers who patiently held Marshall on their rosters while he rarely saw the field in his first year and a half may see the reward for their patience. If the Panthers were not such a terrible team, there would be even more reason for hope. That said, the Panthers will be in a prime position to draft a quarterback in the 2023 draft, and Marshall could benefit. He has a chance to prove to management and whoever coaches the team next year that he can be the WR-2 opposite D.J. Moore. Kmet and Marshall were second-round draft picks in rookie drafts but had been on the roster bubble in most dynasty leagues but finally are showing signs of hope.

Passed His Prime

• Aaron Rodgers is not startable in one-quarterback leagues for the first time in his career. His performance on Sunday was pathetic, and as much as Rodgers likes to blame others, he has no one to blame but himself this week. Rodgers threw three interceptions (including two in the end zone) and completed a season's worst 53.5% of his passes on Sunday. He's missing a lot of weapons, and even more Packers got injured in this game, but the best quarterbacks can still carry their team to victories and fantasy wins. Rodgers has yet to score more than 20 fantasy points this season and is averaging 16.3 points per game. For comparison, Geno Smith is averaging 20.6 points per game, Trevor Lawrence 17.9, Daniel Jones 17.75, and Marcus Mariota 16.9. Something is off for Rodgers, and he doesn't have it this year. He can't be trusted as a starter in lineups, and he's bringing down the entire offense, which is 27th in points scored per game with 17.1. It's sad to see a player with such an incredibly fantasy-productive career that made so many players around him productive start to go downhill, but in Rodgers' case, it's not sad at all. His act has gotten old and tired, and arrogance and finger-pointing are annoying. He deserves what he's getting and needs to point his finger in the mirror.

Getting His Juju Back

• During the first half of the season, I've written about how the new Kansas City offense, minus Tyreek Hill, has distributed the ball evenly to all its players aside from Travis Kelce. Still, in recent weeks the tide has turned, and Juju Smith-Schuster has established himself as the definitive WR-1 and second-most targeted player on the team. Juju has had eight targets in five of the first seven games and received twelve targets this week, the first week after the Chiefs' bye week. Other wide receivers have scored more touchdowns than Juju, but he's received the bulk of the targets and yards, which are more important to me. Before this week, I believed Kelce was the only reliable fantasy starter for the Chiefs apart from Mahomes (even the running backs aren't startable), but now Juju will provide a safe floor for dynasty managers, especially in PPR leagues. The Chiefs have made the shift and Mahomes has eyes for Kelce and Juju above everyone else. His dynasty value is on the rise again after years of falling. He'll never return to the top-twelve dynasty value he had after his first years in Pittsburg, but he's moved back up to 41st in my wide receiver rankings with room to grow since he's only 25 years old.

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Week Nine Waiver Wire

Remember, I play in leagues with 300 to 360 players rostered. In dynasty leagues with that many players rostered, here's a list of the players I plan to add to my rosters this week.

Samori Toure

• Toure saw the most uptick in snaps after Romeo Doubs left the game with an ankle injury, and he received several deep shots downfield from Aaron Rodgers, even though they failed to connect on them. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Packers, so they have a slight interest in seeing what he can do with this short window of opportunity. He can't play any worse than Sammy Watkins, who the Packers still allowed to play 60 snaps on Sunday compared to Toure's 28. He's the best player from a dynasty perspective to add this week.

Kylin Hill

• Hill was my top targeted player on waivers this week until Aaron Jones's MRI revealed no significant damage, and the team reported that he's likely to return to play this week. Hill was one of my favorite late-round targets in the 2021 rookie class, and he had a few great plays and games in the preseason before tearing his ACL. He's only addable in the deepest of leagues, but I wanted to mention him here to keep him on the radar and add him to scout teams.

Jordan Wilkins

• Wilkins was called up from the practice squad last week after Jonathan Taylor was declared out, and he played almost 1/3 for the snaps on Sunday in his first game back with the team. Deon Jackson seemed to sustain a severe injury on Sunday, but he later returned to the game. The Colts are a dumpster fire right now and just fired their head coach, so I would not be surprised if they shut Jonathan Taylor down for the season, giving Wilkins a chance to play more and secure a backup role in the future now that Nyheim Hines was traded to Buffalo.

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Week Nine Trades

Here are my thoughts on trades made in my leagues this week.

D'Onta Forman and Eno Benjamin <=====> 2023 2nd round pick and a 2024 3rd round pick

• I traded away these future picks for two running backs that could help my contending team make a push in the playoffs. I have a solid team in this league, except for the RB-2 position after losing Javonte Williams for the season. I've managed to score a lot of points and hold my own with the RB-2 weakness, but I've fallen behind in the standings a bit and wanted to shore up a floor at the RB-2 spot. I and a top-three team in this league and figured that my 2023 second-round pick would be a late one, and I rarely care about third-round picks, so I was willing to add it to the deal. I overpaid a bit for two guys that may only help me this year, but I was glad to do it anyway. The other team is rebuilding, so he was pleased to get some additional picks to help his team-building process.

D'Onta Foreman <=====> Rex Burkhead and a 2023 3rd round pick

• Another competitive team in one of my leagues added Foreman for his playoff push, too. He only had to give up a third-round pick instead of a second and third-pick. He paid a more fair price than I did in the previously mentioned trade. Burkhead is a strange throw-in player that doesn't make sense to me, but he was added to this deal for some reason, too, though he likely will never see the starting lineup on that team's roster. I like the Foreman side of this trade, but like I already said, I overpaid to get Foreman in another league.

Josh Jacobs, 2023 3rd round pick, and 2024 3rd round pick <=====> 2023 1st round pick and 2024 1st round pick

• This big trade was executed late Saturday night. I offered the Jacobs manager a first-round pick for Jacobs, and I sent a separate offer of Deebo Samuel for Jacobs. He found a much better deal from another manager willing to give up two first-round picks for Jacobs. He jumped on that deal to help with his rebuilding process while the new Jacobs manager is the reigning champ and trying to make another Super Bowl run. Jacobs has cooled off significantly over the last few weeks and he was unproductive again on Sunday while the Raiders continue to struggle offensively. Based on the offers I made, I believe Jacobs can bounce back from his midseason woes, but I was only willing to give one starting player or one first-round draft pick. Giving two is too much. I like the picks side of this trade, no matter the roster composition of either team.

Deon Jackson <=====> 2023 3rd round pick

• The team that traded for Jackson has Jonathan Taylor on his roster and needed an RB-2 to start this week. He paid a fair price to get Taylor's current handcuff. I wish the Jackson manager would have tried to hold the other team over a barrel and get a little more for Jackson, given his position that week, but I doubt he would have paid more than a third-round pick for one week of production. Jackson didn't help his team this week, but his team won anyway. There's not a player on the Colts that I'd trust going forward this season, so this was a one-week fill-in that didn't net much. I like the third-round draft pick side of this trade as a result.

Jared Goff <=====> 2023 2nd round pick

• One manager in this one-quarterback league got stuck in a pickle with both of his starting quarterbacks on bye weeks this week. His team is 8-0 and he wanted to do his best to stay undefeated by acquiring a quarterback this week rather than take a zero at the position. He found a perfect seller in a rebuilding team that's happy to compile picks. The seller now has three first-round picks and four second-round picks in 2023. He's going to have a blast rebuilding his roster with those picks, and Goff is a perfect player to sell since he already has Justin Fields and Matt Stafford on his squad. Sadly, the addition of Goff will likely not result in a win for the 8-0 team. Goff only scored 15 points, and his team is 17 points ahead, and his opponent has three players in the Monday night game. We'll see if he gets his first loss of the season tonight.

JaMycal Hasty <=====> Travis Homer

• This trade only makes sense when you know that the teams traded handcuffs for handcuffs. The team that traded for Hasty has Travis Etienne on his roster, and the team that traded for Homer has Kenneth Walker on his roster. That's it. It's a simple handcuff trade. Contrary to some dynasty managers and analysts, I like to have a few of my own handcuffs, so I approve of a trade like this. Both teams have a slight sense of security now.

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