Mon Nov 4th 2024

Week Nine Review

Week nine in the NFL is over. Sadly, it was a terrible week for my fantasy teams, but watching all the games and cheering on my dynasty teams was still fun.

It's the time of year when you have to decide if your team is a contender or a pretender. Judging by the amount of trades made in my leagues this week, people have made up their minds about their teams. It was a fun week of trading.  Speaking of trades, let's talk about some trades that the NFL teams made before today's trade deadline.

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Dynasty Impact

Oh My!

• Four dynasty-relevant trades have already taken place. Davante Adams was traded to the Jets a few weeks ago, and he had his first breakout game on Thursday night.  Adams is in the last years of his career, but the move to play with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets gave his dynasty value a slight boost compared to his value on the Raiders. Adams is the perfect player for tanking teams to trade away and for competitive teams to buy. He'll have a very productive end of the season. He has two years left on his contract, so if Aaron Rodgers continues to play for the Jets, he can remain a valuable dynasty asset beyond this year. Amari Cooper scored a touchdown in his first game as a Buffalo Bill, but he's been injured and has hardly played since his first game. The Bills receivers have played well without Cooper, and their youngest players, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, have been improving. I think the competition and youth in Buffalo hamper Cooper's long-term dynasty value if he were to stay with the Bills beyond this season. He's in the last year of his contract, so he's more likely to sign with another team next year. Hopefully, he can get back on the field and help dynasty managers this season, but his dynasty value dips as a result of this trade. DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs, where he will attempt to play the Rashee Rice role. He's lost a step,p but he still has the size and savvy to be productive this season. He gets a huge quarterback upgrade compared to what he had in Tennessee. Even so, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense spreads the ball around too much to make Hopkins a star. Unfortunately, he fits the role they need in the offense and will help the team more than dynasty managers. He has one more year on his contract unless the Chiefs void it. When Rashee Rice returns next season along with Marquise Brown, the depth chart will be too crowded for 33-year-old Hopkins. The trade I liked least was Diontae Johnson going to Baltimore. Zay Flowers has turned into an alpha receiver and the focal point of their offense. Beyond him, the ball gets spread around too much to make anyone reliably productive. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are dominant in the run game, making the WR-2 in Baltimore a pretty irrelevant player in fantasy. I love the player, but Johnson's landing spot was not ideal. His dynasty value takes a hit with the Ravens, but he'll be a free agent again at the end of this season and could rebound if he signs with a different team.

Oh No!

• After starting off 2-0 and crushing their first two opponents, the Saints are on a seven-game losing streak, and they're taking dynasty teams down with them. After losing to the Panthers on Sunday, they fired their head coach and one of the more likely teams to trade away players at the trade deadline. Alvin Kamara is still the one bright spot from a fantasy perspective. He's their only weapon since they lost Rasheed Shaheed for the season and will lose Chris Olave for at least four weeks after his terrible concussion on Sunday.  Bub Means is on IR, too, leaving Mason Tipton and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the next guys up. The Saints use all three of their tight ends, making none reliable for dynasty managers, including Tysom Hill, who played again this week and vultured a goal-line touchdown run from Kamara again. Apart from Kamara, who could become the team's top-targeted player in the passing game, there are no Saints worth starting in dynasty lineups for the rest of this season. They got beat by the worst team in the league on Sunday and have now become the worst team in the NFL.

Ouch!

• I already mentioned Olave's injury. I believe he will be placed on IR since it's his second concussion of the year, and he's had concussions before. The Saints will tank for the rest of the season, so they may not even allow him to play for the rest of the year. Drake London injured his hip on his touchdown catch on Sunday or perhaps on the silly celebration he did afterward. Reports indicate it was not a big deal, and he should be back soon if not next week. A.J. Brown injured his knee and did not play in the second half of the game on Sunday. He's scheduled for an MRI, but the team does not think it's serious. It doesn't qualify for an "ouch" segment, but Puka Nacua threw a punch at a defender and was kicked out of the game for it. I only mention him here so that I can say that one of my lineups rolled out London, Olave, and Nacua as my starters this week. That did not go well for me. Dynasty managers with Olave, Nacua, London, or Brown were unsuccessful this week. I had one or more of them in my starting lineups in seven of my nine dynasty leagues, and I lost the game in five of those seven. Injuries are the worst!

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Stock Up

Quentin Johnston

• I never thought I would write this, but Johnston dynasty stock is rising.  He started the season pretty hot but has been completely quiet since week three. Sunday was the most productive game of his young career. He scored 20 fantasy points while catching four of five targets for 188 yards and a touchdown. What's more surprising is that he was second on the team in wide receiver snaps behind Ladd McConkey. It's hard to know if that was a choice specific to the game plan against the Browns or if Johnston's role will permanently increase, but we'll find out in the coming weeks. In the last few weeks, the Chargers have also opened up the passing game. Johnston can earn a bigger piece of the pie and redeem his first-round rookie draft value.

Zay Flowers

• Flowers is an outstanding football player. He's so shifty and fun to watch. For the second time this season, he had more than 100 yards receiving before halftime. His 53-yard touchdown catch was amazing as he slipped out of the grasp of several tacklers and outran everyone to the endzone.  He's become Lamar Jackson's top target this year, a role Mark Andrews had forever. The Ravens have drafted and traded for wide receivers since they drafted Lamar Jackson, but none of them grew into the alpha receivers they wanted. They finally found their man in Flowers. He's an alpha, and his dynasty stock is on the rise.

Devon Achane

• Achane is the RB-1 and the WR-1 for Miami. It's incredible what he's doing on the field this season. He led the team in carries and catches this week. He had another touchdown run and catch on Sunday. When healthy, he's unstoppable. I'm not sure any coach would know how to use him this way other than Mike McDaniel, but he sure knows how to play to his talents. Achane is one of my biggest misses in his rookie class. Several times, I drafted Zack Charbonnet ahead of him. It's one of my biggest, most recent regrets. He's a superstar.

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Stock Down

Tyreek Hill

• One of the most shocking things this season has been Tyreek Hill's lack of productivity. It made sense when Tua was injured, and backups were passing the ball to him, but since Tua has been back, he's had about the same amount of production as he had with the backups. He's not played terribly. He's scored ten fantasy points in each of the last two weeks with Tua, but his dynasty managers are used to game-winning performances from him on almost a weekly basis. Unbelievably, he's scored just one touchdown this season, and that was week one. I don't think he's over the hill yet, but his dynasty stock is moving in the wrong direction this season.

Keenan Allen

• Allen has had only one good game this season. He's suffering from terrible quarterback play from Caleb Williams and his inaccuracy, but it's not just Williams' problem. Allen's play has fallen off, too. Rome Odunze's production is ramping up at the expense of Allen's. Dynasty managers knew this would happen, but many did not expect it to happen so soon. I was able to trade away all but one of my shares of Allen over the last two years. I got out at just the right time, which is sad because he's one of my favorite receivers.

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Young Guns

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• I was very concerned last week when JSN did not take advantage of the increased workload in the offense when D.K. Metcalf was injured. I was more concerned midway through the first half of Sunday's game when he was struggling again. In fact, during the game, I have a sheet of paper where I write down the names of players that are candidates for this article. I just started to write down JSN as a stock-down player when he scored his first touchdown. After that, he was off to the races and had the highest-scoring fantasy day of his young career, scoring 33 points. Seattle and his dynasty managers expected this kind of play after drafting him in the first round. Hopefully, he can build upon this performance and become a top-tier dynasty receiver by the end of the season. He and D.K. Metcalf can both be productive for the Seahawks and could become one of the top receiving duos in the NFL if he improves.

Xavier Legette

• I was higher on Legette than most dynasty managers, so he was one of my most drafted rookies this year. While he's yet to have a blowup game, he's becoming a reliable red-zone threat. All four of his touchdown catches this year were from eight or fewer yards out. His big body makes him a perfect weapon in the red zone and that's how the Panthers are using him. They, too, like to see his galloping celebration dance. His workload has increased since Diontae Johnson was traded, and he'll continue to develop this season, even with poor quarterback play. If somehow Bryce Young figures things out or the Panthers draft a new quarterback, Legette will look even better.

Drake Maye

• Maye had the play of the day on Sunday when he scrambled around for eleven seconds before tossing up a game-tying touchdown pass. Maye was the Patriots' entire offense. He led the team in rushing with 95 yards and 206 yards passing. He threw two interceptions including the one that cost them the game in overtime, but the kid has fight and he can play. He's become a reliable starter in one quarterback league because of his consistency running the ball. He's scored 17 or more points in three of his first four starts in the NFL. It's evident in watching him that he has what it takes to be a productive NFL quarterback. If the Patriots surround him with better weapons in the coming years, his dynasty value will soar.

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Old-Man Strength

Justin Herbert

• The Chargers jumped on the Browns early with two long touchdown passes from Herbert. They took their foot off the gas in the second half, or Herbert could have had an even bigger game. He broke his recent streak of scoring more fantasy points week after week, but that's only because the game was so out of hand. Still, he scored 22 points and is back to being a viable starter in dynasty lineups. Herbert is one of my most rostered quarterbacks. Headed into the year, I was down on him because I expected the Chargers scheme to be run first, and his receivers were so unproven. Over the last four weeks, the offense has opened up, and they are passing more at the same time that Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston start to break out. My hopes for Herbert impacting my lineups are renewed as a result.

Courtland Sutton

• After a catchless game two weeks ago, the Broncos corrected their mistake and have fed Sutton the last two weeks. Last week, it was in a winning effort.  This week, it was in a losing effort. Either way, Sutton got the ball a lot. On Sunday, he got 30% of the target share as the Broncos tried to come back against the Ravens. While the Broncos keep throwing out different wide receiver combinations in an attempt to find a WR-2. Sutton is their alpha WR-1 and was on the field for 85% of the snaps. He went over 100 yards for the second week in a row and threw a touchdown pass to Bo Nix in this game. He showed his old-man strength in several ways on Sunday.

Saquon Barkley

• What more can be said about Barkley? He's playing as well as he did in his first few seasons in the league. He's unbelievable. He had a fantastic catch on a wheel route for a touchdown that most running backs would have dropped. He had a season-high number of carries at 27 yards and 159 yards. He's becoming Derrick Henry, like at the end of games when the Eagles have the lead. They just let him pound the other team into submission. If you didn't see the ridiculous backward huddle jump, you have to look it up. It was one of the craziest jumps I've ever seen. The old man still has fight in him, and he took Jacksonville defenders to the shed this week.

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Waiver Watch

Ray-Ray McCloud

• If Drake London misses time with his injury, McCloud will become the WR-2 behind Darnell Mooney. He caught three passes and one for a touchdown on Sunday after London left the game. He's been an active part of the offense all season, which is why he's rostered in most deep leagues, but he's still available in many of my 10-team leagues. He'd only be startable in weeks where many other receivers are on bye, but there are a lot of four-team bye weeks coming up in the next few weeks.

Mason Tipton

• Tipton added the Saints in wide receiver snaps on Sunday after Olave left the game. He didn't have a catch, but he was on the field the most. He will be again in the weeks ahead until Olave or Bub Means returns. He's a complete dart throw, but he is a rookie, and if he comes out of nowhere to hit big, he would be the cheapest waiver wire find a dynasty manager can get. He'll get the chance to succeed or fail.

Jordan Mims

• Mims backed up Alvin Kamara on Sunday while Jamaal Williams was out.  If Williams' injury lingers, Mims will keep the backup role. He may even see his role increase if the Saints tank and protect Alvin Kamara from injury. He's a second-year player the Saints have held onto for a year, so they like something about him.  You know it's a thin waiver wire week when the last two players I list are New Orleans Saints.  

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Dynasty Trades

C.J. Stroud and Nick Chubb <=======> Jonathan Brooks and a 2025 1stround pick

• I like to start with trades I have made, and this is one I accepted when offered to me. My team is in complete rebuild mode, and a competitive team offered me this trade. I was pleased to accept it, given my rebuild status. It's a one-quarterback league that is transitioning to superflex in 2027. His starter was Anthony Richardson, who just got benched, so he wanted a top-tier quarterback and an older running back for an unproven player and a first-round pick. I smashed accept because this trade fits right into my rebuild plans. I picked up a player I would have drafted in the first round last year and another first-round pick next year, giving me four first-round draft picks, three second-round, and two third-round draft picks in 2025. My weakness is at the running back position, so getting Brooks and another first-round draft pick makes me confident I can bolster that position in next year's rookie draft. With four first-round picks, I can also add a quarterback to prepare me for our future transition to superflex. Stroud has been struggling this year compared to last year and has not helped his team as a starter this week. Still, he's a top-tier dynasty quarterback, one I will need to replace with my many draft picks. We'll see if this move can better prepare him for a playoff run this season.

Pierre Strong <=======> 2025 3rd round pick

• The same manager who acquired Chubb in the previous trade added Pierre Strong to his team, which already rostered D'Onta Foreman to solidify the Browns' backfield for the rest of the season, sans Jerome Ford. I think it was unnecessary, but he was willing to give up a third-round pick to get some security. I would have gladly traded Strong for a third-round pick.

Brandon Aiyuk <=======> Khalil Shakir

• In this ten-team league where only four teams make the playoffs, teams tied for third place made this unique player-for-player trade. One team needed the up-and-coming receiver, Shakir, after his breakout week and was willing to give up the future upside of the injured Aiyuk, who will miss the rest of the year. Given Aiyuk's new contract with the 49ers, I much prefer the Aiyuk side of this trade. Shakir has become Josh Allen's primary target this year, but Keon Coleman's role is growing. I'm not confident that Shakir will have a long-term future with the Bills, but I am sure Aiyuk will with the 49ers. I like the Aiyuk side of this player-for-player trade.

J.K. Dobbins and David Njoku <=======> DeAndre Hopkins

• In the same ten-team league where only four teams make the playoffs, teams tied for third place made this unique player-for-player trade. A tight-end needy team added Njoku and Dobbins to prepare for their playoff run where a team whose wide receiver depth is decent took a chance on adding Hopkins to be his crucial piece in a playoff run. The team that traded for Hopkins has a lot of running back and tight end depth, but I still think he gave away too much for Hopkins. His team did not need the wide receiver depth to give away Njoku and Dobbins.  The team that received Dobbins was terribly weak at the tight end, but they were glad to get Njoku and another piece for Hopkins. I favor their side of the trade. Hopkins could surprise me and become the WR-1 in Kanas City for the rest of the season, but I'd be very surprised if he does.

Terry McLaurin <=======> Michael Pittman and 2025 1stand 2nd round picks

• This trade was made between the defending champion, whose team is loaded, and the second-to-last-place team, who decided it was time to rebuild. The champ was willing to give a troubling prospect and two picks to level up for McLaurin, who is poised to have the best year of his career. This trade is perfectly reasonable for both teams. The defending champ got a weekly starter for his lineup, and the rebuilding team got an asset with the opportunity to grow and two future picks. McLaurin is older, but he's finally got a stud quarterback to make the backend of his career more productive than the first. Pittman could benefit the rest of this season now that Joe Flacco has been made the starter, but his future is uncertain if the Colts still believe Anthony Richardson is their future starter. Still, he's a player worth taking a risk on while getting back a first and second-round pick.

Cooper Kupp and a 2025 3rd round pick <=======> 2025 1stround pick

• The last-place team at the bottom of this league is in rebuild mode and gave up Kupp for a first-round pick to help in his rebuilding efforts. He did a similar trade last week, so he has set his sights on rebuilding. The team on the Kupp side of the trade is in sixth place and fighting for the last playoff spot. He must hope that Kupp will put him over the edge. At least he got a third-round pick back to hedge his bets. Given Kupp's age and the unlikeliness that a sixth-place team will make a run to the championship, I like the rebuilding team's side of this trade.  I don't think Kupp is worthy of a first-round draft pick any longer, but I'll admit he could prove me wrong if he goes on a tear to end the season. 

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