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Tue Oct 1st 2024

Week Four Review

I took a week off last week while celebrating my 23rd wedding anniversary in North Cascades National Park. I'm back on schedule this week to share my dynasty takes on week four in the NFL. Here's what stood out to me from a dynasty perspective.


Dynasty Impact

Surprise!

  • Who would have thought that the first and third picks of the 2018 draft, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, would be among the most productive quarterbacks in the league last week and through the entire early season? They scored three touchdowns each and were on fire in the passing game on Sunday. Though they have bounced around the league on several teams over their careers, they have landed on their feet again and have revived their dynasty value in the 7th year of their careers. Both have become reliable starters, even in one quarterback leagues. Darnold is my most rostered quarterback after I picked him up off waivers just after he signed with Minnesota. Now, he's in many of my starting lineups. Dynasty managers who were patient with these two first-round draft picks are finally seeing their reward.

Oh, No!

  • The Kansas City and Philadelphia offenses looked broken this week. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith out with injuries, Jalen Hurts could not get the offense moving, and Saquon Barkley was held in check for the first time this season. Kansas City found themselves in the same boat after Rashee Rice was injured early. Now they are down Rice and Marquise Brown for the season, so their offense will continue to struggle. At least Philadelphia will get their wide receivers back at some point this season if not next week. The Eagles did not record a first down until there were six and a half minutes left in the second quarter. The Chiefs, who have converted 48% of their third downs over the last few years, have only converted 35% this season. Injuries have played a part, but it's also possible that defenses have caught up with them. For now, it's much harder to trust players in these offenses that have been so strong and reliable in recent years.

Ouch!

  • It was a relatively calm week on the injury front, but one emerging top-ten dynasty wide receiver is likely lost for the season. Rashee Rice avoided suspension and started the season on fire. He had taken the top-target role away from Travis Kelce and was on pace to have an excellent second season. The hopes of his dynasty managers came crashing down after he injured his knee, likely tearing his ACL. The Chiefs' plan for this season was to keep Travis Kelce on a pitch count, but they must change their plan now. Kelce will become their top target again. Xavier Worthy should also see a significant bump in targets and an increased role in the offense now, and Justin Watson becomes a player worth targeting on the waiver wire this week. Rice's dynasty value will hold steady but won't rise as it could have this season.

Stock Up

Jayden Daniels

  • Daniels is on fire and deserves to be ranked ahead of Caleb Williams and among the top ten dynasty quarterbacks, if not higher. He has the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in the first four games of their career. The Commanders dominated the Cardinals, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury received the game ball after the game. Kingsbury and Daniels are on fire to start the season. They went two and a half games without a single punt before finally having to punt on Sunday.  I expected Daniels to be productive on the ground, but I did not think he'd pass the ball so well this early in his career. He's exceeded my expectations, and I've moved him up in my dynasty rankings this week.

Justin Fields

  • Fields has earned a staring role with the Steelers. While they did not win the game, he showed that he could lead the team in comeback mode. They hid him the first three weeks by running the ball and playing great defense. This week they could not hide him since Indianapolis jumped out to an early lead. He played a pretty clean game and did more of what he used to do in Chicago, scoring two rushing touchdowns and leading the league in quarterback fantasy points this week. I expect the coaches to announce him as their future starter, making his dynasty stock to rise again while Russell Wilson's continues to fall.

Nico Collins

  • Collins is a beast! Unless Tyreek Hill or Amon-Ra St. Brown go completely nuts on Monday night, Collins will be the highest-scoring wide receiver in the league at the end of the week. He's getting more than ten targets a game and is averaging 122 yards a game. If there was any question about which wide receiver would become C.J. Stroud's number-one man at the start of the season, there is no question today. Collins is by far his favorite and best target, ahead of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. What's great about Collins is how often he's targeted deep down field. He is second in the league in air yards with 487. Stroud is excellent at buying time and hitting Collins on deep routes across the middle. His outstanding play and chemistry with Stroud carry his dynasty stock into the top tier of dynasty wide receivers. He's solidified his place among the best.

Stock Down

Josh Jacobs

  • Jacobs doesn't have the burst he displayed earlier in his career, and he's having difficulty holding off Emanuel Wilson for playing time in recent weeks. Matt LaFleur is back to his running-back-by-committee ways. This week, they split snaps 60/40, and Jacobs only had one more carry than Wilson. We hoped LaFleur would change his ways after signing Jacobs this offseason and letting Aaron Jones sign with the Vikings. I think it's time to give up on the hopes of Jacobs being a bell-cow back like he was in Oakland so his dynasty stock must fall.

Rashaad White

  • White's sneaky fantasy production is not there this year. Last year, he finished as the 7th highest-scoring running back based mostly on volume and pass-catching. Last year, he averaged 15 carries per game.  This year, he's just getting ten touches per game because rookie Bucky Irving is cutting into his workload, and he's looked great doing it. Irving has scored one more fantasy point than White has this season, and his role is increasing. I don't think Irving will replace White as the starter, but I think they have a 50/50 split until White's contract expires.

Mark Andrews

  • Oh my gosh! Andrews might have one of the quickest falls from grace we've ever seen by a tight end if his play the last four weeks keeps up. He had the double coverage excuse in week one when Isaiah Likely outplayed him, but he's been without excuse for the last three weeks. He's laid a goose egg the last two weeks in a row and is being primarily used as a blocker.  After years of having a 20% target share in Baltimore this season, he's only been targeted 2.3 times per game. I benched him in one league last week and felt like I had to play him in another where I have the Lamar stack. Not so next week.  I will bench him in both until something drastically changes. His stock is falling quickly.

Young Guns

Jordan Addison

  • After returning to the field for the first time since game one, Addison wasted no time. I confidently started him in all of my lineups, and he busted out with a two-touchdown day, even outscoring Justin Jefferson this week. He scored on a catch and on a run, showing that he's no longer limited by his ankle injury. What a great return to action for this young gun. Kevin O'Connell's offense leaves plenty of room for a WR-2 to score fantasy points. Jalen Nailor did in each game when Addison was injured. Now, Addison can do the same but better. It was great to see him back in action.

Xavier Legette

  • Legette finally got the opportunity he deserved to start after Adam Thielen got injured. He took advantage of his starting role and will not give it up from here on out. He got 87% of the snaps this week, which led the team. He turned his ten targets into six catches and a touchdown. I was higher on Legette than most dynasty managers last year, so I drafted him in several leagues. I'm thrilled that he proved himself at his first opportunity and am thrilled to have him as one of my young guns in several leagues.

Bucky Irving

  • As I wrote above, Irving has cut into Rashaad White's playing time and has outscored him by one point this season. The Buccaneers like what they see in him and have increased his role each week. Even though he's slight in frame, they aren't afraid to use him between the tackles and on the goal line. He scored on a red-zone carry on Sunday. He's looked like a better runner than White, too. This young gun will make this backfield a true committee this year and could take the lead role as early as next year.

Old-Man Strength

Derrick Henry

  • Death, taxes, and Derrick Henry explosion games. This old man can't be stopped. He ripped off a 75-yard touchdown run on the game's first play, and the tone was set Sunday night. The Ravens fed the old man to the tune of 24 carries for 199 yards as they destroyed the Bills's defense. I thought Henry would primarily be used as a goal-line back in Baltimore, but he's been so much more than that. Shoot, he even caught three passes on Sunday night. Sadly, I played against him in several leagues and will likely lose many of those games. Still, it was fun to watch a prime example of old-man strength.

Diontae Johnson

  • Johnson is back! He's scored a touchdown in consecutive weeks. It's Andy Dalton to the rescue, and Johnson is his top target, with 14 targets last week and 13 this week. He's still got excellent route-running skills. He's just lacked a quarterback the last few years who can play in timing with the offense. Dalton, and fellow old man, knows how to do just that. They've already established a rapport, and I am sure it can improve this season. Johnson is a reliable starting wide receiver again and will have a nice later part of his career in Carolina so long as Dalton remains the starter. He has the old-man strength.

Waiver Watch

Joe Flacco

  • Early reports indicate that Anthony Richardson's injury will not cause him to miss more games, but Flacco is still worth adding in superflex leagues given Richardson's injury history. He led the Colts to a win on Sunday over a very strong Pittsburgh defense and raised the production of Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. It's hard to believe he could do what he did last season when taking over the Browns offense last year, but it's worth adding him to see if he can do it again in Indianapolis.

Justin Watson

  • I'm betting on Watson to be the next man up in Kansas City after Rashee Rice's injury. He had the second most snaps among the wide receivers on Sunday after Rice went down, making him a player worth adding in deep leagues. From a dynasty perspective, he's not a great addition, but he could prove valuable this season, given his increased role the rest of this season, assuming the Chiefs don't acquire a wide receiver in a trade.

Noah Brown

  • Noah Brown has moved ahead of Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey to become the WR-2 in Washington. On Sunday, he played 69% of the snaps compared to Brown's 25% and McCaffrey's 44%. He only had three catches for 26 yards, but he was on the field a lot and has an opportunity to establish himself as a new weapon in an offense that is one of the hottest in the NFL.

Dynasty Trades

Drake London <=======> Zay Jones

  • I made this trade for London after a manager put him on the trading block. I sent him a message asking if he liked Zay Jones, Jayden Reed, or Jordan Addison more than London. I have them ranked closely together, but I prefer London. I think he can become a true alpha wide receiver, whereas Jones is more of a gadget guy for Baltimore. Jones is more gamescript-dependent, too, as the Ravens will often stick to the run game when dominating an opponent. I'm pleased to have London instead of Jones.

Trevor Lawrence, George Pickens, Aaron Jones <=======> Bo Nix, Jayden Reed, and David Njoku

  • I made this trade with the same manager a few days later, and someone posted in the group chat that he and I were swapping teams with one another. It's a superflex league, so the key part of the trade for me was acquiring Lawerence over Nix.  While neither quarterback is playing well, I trust that Lawerence will have a better career than Nix, who, apart from his production running, has looked terrible to start his career. I like Lawerence's weapons in the passing game more, too. I was willing to trade Njoku because my other tight ends are Trey McBride and Dallas Goedert. Jayden Reed was hard to give up, but he's competing each week to be the Packers' WR-1, whereas Pickens is the established WR-1 in Pittsburgh. I am weak at running back in this league, so Jones gives me a chance to compete this season even though he won't impact my team long-term. I see this as a pretty even trade that I thought long and hard about before accepting. Lawrence over Nix is what made me willing to depart with Reed.  

Aaron Jones <=======> 2025 2nd and 3rd round picks

  • Jones's hot start in Minnesota has made him the first sell-high player this season. If a team has solid running back depth, Jones is a great player to sell. If a competitive team is weak at running back, he's a great player to buy. That's what happened here with this trade. In a vacuum, I'd prefer the 2nd and 3rd round picks, but I see why each team did what they did with this trade.  

Cordarrelle Patterson <=======> 2025 5th round pick

  • In this low-level trade, the manager who traded for Patterson also has Najee Harris. He bought himself a little insurance after Jaylen Warren was injured again. Patterson would be the next man up if Harris gets injured, and he was mixed in quite a bit this past Sunday. It's a fair trade, though it looks peculiar.

Kyle Pitts <=======> 2025 2nd and 4th round picks and a 2026 2nd round pick

  • I can't believe Pitts continues to hold this kind of dynasty value. I would much rather have two seconds and a fourth than Pitts.  Kirk Cousins has not revived Pitts' young and fading career trajectory. He's played just as poorly as he did last year. The team who acquired Pitts, road Evan Engram to a Super Bowl win over my team last year, but Engram's injury has left him in a tough place this year. I see what he sought Pitts as an answer, but I don't think he is an answer.

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