Tue Dec 19th 2023

Week Fifteen Dynasty Takes

Week fifteen, the first week of the fantasy playoffs, was high-scoring. Several teams in my leagues scored the most points they have all season. What a time to do so! It resulted in upsets in the playoffs and games coming down to the wire on Sunday and Monday nights.

I am pleased to say that I had bye weeks in four of my nine dynasty leagues, and it looks like I'll make the semifinals in the one playoff game I played this week since I am a 91% favorite headed into Monday night. I'm glad I had bye weeks because I would have lost to several teams in this high-scoring week.

After following all the games this weekend, here are my week-fifteen dynasty takes.

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Week Fifteen Dynasty Takes

On Fire At Home

• The Lions dismantled the Broncos Saturday night, reminding dynasty managers that Jared Goff is on fire when playing at home. Goff scored a season-high 33 fantasy points after throwing five touchdowns. Goff averages 23.4 fantasy points when playing at home compared to 16.7 on the road. As Goff goes, so goes the fantasy production of the team. Managers who had Lions this week were treated to game-winning performances, including a season's best 26 points from Sam LaPorta, 21 from Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 24 from Jahmyr Gibbs. LaPorta is having the best rookie tight end season in history and is my #1 ranked dynasty tight end. Gibbs has scored 12 more fantasy points than fellow rookie Bijan Robinson and is my #4 ranked dynasty running back. St. Brown is arguably the most consistent wide receiver in fantasy and is my #5 ranked dynasty receiver. Detroit is loaded with young weapons and carried dynasty teams into the semifinals this week. Unfortunately for their dynasty managers, the Lions' next two games are on the road. At least both games are in domes since Goff averages 14.85 fantasy points in outdoor road games compared to 21.45 in indoor road games.

Road Woes

• Washington's offense looked terrible Sunday afternoon, leading coach Rivera to bench Sam Howell. Once Jacoby Brissett entered the game, the team started moving, sparking Terry McLaurin's best fantasy game of the season. McLaurin has been benchable in shallow leagues after averaging 6 points per game over the last five weeks. I thought this would be a breakout game for him since he complained that he was doing "a lot of cardio out there" after his zero-point fantasy game last week." I thought the squeaky wheel would get the juice, but Sam Howell didn't provide it. Brissett did. Coach Rivera said after the loss that Howell would start for them next week. I believe he will, but he will be on a short leash again. He's unreliable in the fantasy playoffs next week, especially since he's playing the top-ranked defense against quarterbacks at the Jets. I mentioned last week how I had to turn to Howell as my starter in two leagues after Justin Herbert was placed on IR. I'll start Russell Wilson ahead of Howell in one league and look to the waiver wire this week for a starter in the other. Sunday was as bad as it gets for Howell during this up-and-down season. There's hope for his future, but there's also a strong possibility that the Commanders draft a quarterback in this class. Their chances increase with each Commander's loss.

Unstoppable

• The 49ers are unstoppable, and Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level. He was the 4th highest-scoring quarterback headed into this week, and his 28-point outing on Sunday will keep him up there. Dynasty managers who snagged Purdy off the waiver wire last season when he came in off the bench are thrilled to have found a diamond in the rough. At the end of last season, I remember being offered Purdy for a first-round pick in a superflex league. Uncertain about his ability to keep the starting role, I declined. I made a big mistake on that one. Christian McCaffery is unbelievable, and for the first time in his career, he's stayed healthy all season. He's averaging 23 fantasy points per game and looks as quick and powerful at 27 years old as he did in his rookie year. The guy who is surprising me at the end of this season is Deebo Samuel. He's been on fire the last four weeks, averaging 26 points per game. Coach Shanahan is using Deebo more like he did in his magical season in 2021. He lost a step in 2022 and had a slow start to this season, but now he's among the unstoppable players on this offense. He's peaking at just the right time for dynasty managers. I traded my last share of Deebo last offseason. I traded him for Joe Mixon in a league where I was stacked at wide receiver and needed more running back depth. Mixon has scored six more points than Deebo this year, and he helped me secure a bye week and the number one seed in that league, but now that we're in the playoffs, I'd much rather have Deebo, especially now that Chase Brown is cutting into Mixon's workload.

League Winners

• Like Deebo, a couple of players are breaking out at the end of the season and are poised to be league winners for teams. Trey McBride and David Njoku dominate their teams' targets and explode at the right time in the fantasy playoffs. Since Joe Flacco took over in Cleveland three weeks ago, Njoku has seen 28 targets, and the Browns have become one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, passing the ball 44, 45, and 44 times. Njoku has a 21% target share since Flacco took over. Since Kyler Murray returned to Arizona in week ten, he has targeted McBride 45 times, an average of 9 targets per game. McBride has a 26% target share since Murray took over. Njoku and McBride will play a significant role in advancing dynasty teams in the playoffs. I have them on two of my five semifinal teams and am excited about the steady floor they provide me at tight end.
• I'm not as confident that these running backs are league winners, but Devin Singletary and Ty Chandler could fit the bill. Both dominated their team snaps and touches this week and looked like a star running back. Singletary had 30 touches and produced 170 total yards and had 75% of the team's snaps. The Texans need to ride Singletary to keep their playoff hopes alive. Chandler had 26 touches and produced 157 total yards, and had 81% of the team's snaps. The Vikings need to ride Chandler to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Vikings could have won the game had they not tried two stupid brotherly shove plays with Nick Mullens instead of giving the ball to Chandler.

Rookie Watch

• Two rookie wide receivers finally see more playing time and give dynasty managers more hope for their future. Since week nine, Cedric Tillman has out-snapped Elijah Moore and become the WR-2 in Cleveland. He had his highest target share of the season with 18% and turned eight targets into four catches for 52 yards. Managers who have patiently waited for Tillman to find a role have been rewarded. He's still not a player to take off a taxi squad, but he has the rest of the season with the pass-happy Flacco-led team to improve his role in the offense. 
• Similarly, Tyler Scott had his most productive fantasy day on Sunday with three catches for 49 yards. He still needs to surpass Darnell Mooney to become the WR-2 in Chicago, but he's getting more involved in the offense. Mooney is in the last year of his contract, so Scott is waiting to see an increased role next year, that is unless the Bears keep Justin Fields and draft Marvin Harrison with the first pick of the draft.

Old Man Strength

• This week's old man strength award goes to a pair of Buccaneers, Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield. Both old men had their highest-scoring fantasy week of the season, while the Buccaneers established themselves as the team to beat in the NFC South. Godwin has had a down season and was on the injury report all week, so it would not be surprising if he were on the dynasty bench during his 20-point day. It was good to see that Mayfield has eyes for more than Mike Evans. Mayfield is a great candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year. He was the 15th-highest-scoring quarterback in the league heading into this week. His 33-point fantasy day may move him into the top 12 by the end of the week. He, too, was likely on the bench in one-quarterback leagues this week, but he is an every-week starter in superflex leagues. He's one of my most hated players, given his cockiness and his hatred of The University of Texas, but I have to admit he's got some old-man strength, and he's been fun to watch this season.

Bounce-Back Candidates

• Cooper Kupp has the back-to-back 21-point games and appears to be the apple of Matt Stafford's eye again. He's finally bounced back from his injuries and will be a big boost to dynasty lineups in the playoffs if they are lucky enough to get in the playoff this season with his poor start. In one league, I secured a bye week, and the team with Kupp advanced to play me. His team scares me way more than before, and I bet he will be favored to beat me now. Tee Higgins has been benchable this season. I've benched in a few of my leagues. He bounced back on Saturday and finally looked like himself again. He had one of the plays of the year on his game-tying touchdown, his second of the game. He was more involved in the offense after Ja'Maar Chase left the game with an injured shoulder. If Chase misses time, Higgins will become a safe-to-start player again, even with Jake Browning as his quarterback. He, too, could bounce back just in time to help dynasty teams in the playoffs. I hope he signs with a new team next year. I'd like to see how he could produce as a WR-1 on a team. He can do so and may prove it in the next few weeks if Chase misses time.

Stock Down

• The dynasty stock is falling on one aging back and two young backs. It looks like Austin Ekeler has hit a wall. C.J. Spiller out-touched Ekeler in the Chargers' blowout loss, and the coaching staff said last week that they need to get more running backs involved in the game. It's hard to believe he's fallen off a cliff, but it looks that way. The team's coaching shake-up and the fact that he's playing with a backup quarterback the rest of the season means he'll have a hard time producing the rest of this season, which will hurt playoff teams who somehow made it into the playoffs with Ekeler as a starter.
• Javonte Williams and Dameon Pierce are athletic and hard-running young backs whose dynasty stock is falling, even at their age. Pierce lost his starting role to Devin Singletary, and he's not getting it back. Houston's new coaching staff did not draft Pierce, so they have no motive to trot him out there, especially while Singletary is breaking out. Anytime a running back gets demoted to second string, their dynasty stock dramatically tumbles. Williams still has the leading role in Denver, but he's not produced. He's only scored one touchdown in the 13 games he's played and has only hit double-digit fantasy points four times this season. He was my 6th-ranked rookie in the 2021 class. I thought he would return to form after recovering from his knee surgery, but he hasn't. Last year, I traded Williams away for Dalvin Cook at the trade deadline. I got to the Super Bowl in that league but didn't win it. I regretted the trade after losing in the Super Bowl and regretted it more after Cook lost his job in Minnesota. Now, however, I don't feel as bad about it. Of course, I'd rather have Williams, but it doesn't look like as big of a mistake as it did when this season started.

Waiver Wire

• I recommend a few players on the waiver wire this week. The first is Tre Tucker, who caught two touchdown passes on Thursday night's blowout win over the Chargers. He received more snaps this week than Hunter Renfrow, but just barely. His breakout performance on Thursday may cause the team to give him more snaps to see what they have in him. He was a third-round draft pick last year, so the team is invested in him.
• I'm only interested in Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson in super-deep leagues. They split the workload on Saturday while Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss were out with injuries. Moss and Taylor could be back this week, so Sermon and Goodson might not play this week or the rest of the season. Both have had plenty of chances in the NFL and have proven to be backups and practice squad players. I would only add either of them if it's confirmed that Taylor or Moss will not play this week. 

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