Tue Nov 19th 2024

Week Eleven Review

It's almost time for the fantasy playoffs. That makes watching all of the NFL action on Sunday a little more nerve-racking. These last few weeks of the season will make or break dynasty teams, sneaking them into the playoffs or knocking them out. It was a fun Sunday to watch football. After following all the games, here are my takeaways from a dynasty perspective.

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Dynasty Impact

Oh My!

• I don't have a dynasty take to start this article. Instead, I have a humble brag. I was invited into the Scott Fish Bowl for the first time this year. I'm proud to say I won my league and will be in the playoffs next week! I finished the year 16-6 and in first place. I finished in the top 15% of all 4000 teams in scoring, which is important because your average weekly score gets added to your score in each playoff game. I'm sure I won't advance too far in the playoffs, but I am happy to have the chance. Winning the division and making the playoffs in my first year is awesome, so I had to take a minute to share my good news. Cheer me on!

Oh No!

• Dynasty managers should learn to expect low-scoring games when Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off. I heard one commenter say that neither team has scored more than 20 points in their games against each other in several years. Pittsburgh has the Ravens' number, and this game was the lowest-scoring game of the season, with just 16 offensive points. It was Lamar Jackson's lowest-scoring fantasy week, as well as Derrick Henry's. Their dynasty manager can't complain, given how on fire they've been this season, but it was a gut punch this late in the season to see them underperform. For their part, the Steelers were stifled, too, and disappointed their dynasty managers. Russell Wilson had his first touchdown-less game. The only dynasty managers who left this game with smiles are the ones with Chris Boswell as their kicker. I have him on several rosters where he scored between 18 and 25 points, depending on the scoring system. Dynasty managers who want to eliminate kickers point to games like this as evidence.

Ouch!

• There were not a lot of dynasty-relevant injuries on Sunday. Gabe Davis tore his meniscus, so he's likely out for several weeks, though dynasty managers were leaning on him this season. His injury gives Parker Washington another opportunity to play more, albeit in the hapless Jaguars offense.

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Stock Up

Juaun Jennings

• Jenings is the wide receiver one in San Francisco right now. He's Pudy's favorite target ahead of Deebo Samuel. He's taken over the lead role while Brandon Aiyuk is injured, and he's earning a permanent role in the future. The odds are that the 49ers will let Samuel go after this season, and Jennings will pair with Aiyuk as the starting receiver next season. He's held off Ricky Pearsall this season and can do so again next season. His stock is on the rise.

Josh Jacobs

• When Jacobs was signed by the Packers this offseason, the coaching staff said they signed him to be their workhorse back. Given their history of rotating backs, I had a hard time believing them. We now know they meant what they said. They're feeding Jacobs the rock, and he's bounced back to his younger form of himself after a disappointing last year in Las Vegas. He's averaging 17.6 rushes per game this season. Dynasty managers love that.  Backs averaging that many carries per game provide a safe floor week to week. He's a workhorse, and his dynasty stock is on the rise.

Jonnu Smith

• Smith has quietly become a key component to the Dolphins offense this season. He's averaging five targets per game, which is more targets than Jaylen Waddle is receiving. He went nuts on Sunday with six catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns, including a 57-yard play where he outran the defensive backs. At the weak and perplexing tight-end position, he's become a serviceable starter this season. The 29-year-old scored the most fantasy points on Sunday than he's scored in his eight-year career. Even at his age, his stock is on the rise.

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Stock Down

This week, these are not truly stock-down players. Their dynasty stock is still very high, but I wanted to mention their disappointing weeks, some of them consecutive weeks. These are more personal rants from me this week.

Kyren Williams

• After scoring a touchdown in eight consecutive weeks, Williams has been shut out of the end zone for the last three weeks.  In the previous two weeks, he's had the fewest amount of touches that he's had all season, with just 15 touches and no targets on Sunday. He was a cornerstone of many of my rosters, carrying me to victories early in the season, but he's been average at best the last three weeks. Hopefully, he will bounce back and help my teams in the playoffs.

Justin Jefferson

• Jefferson's last two weeks have been the worst of the season.  He's had plenty of targets in those games (9 and 8), but they've been mostly unproductive, at least for what his dynasty manager has come to expect from him. I only have Jefferson on one roster. Last year, he carried me to a championship. I will likely miss the playoffs this year because I needed him in a must-win game this week. Last week, the whole offense underperformed, and Sam Darnold had the worst game of his season, but this week, Darnold played great but just distributed the ball around a lot, and Jordan Addison got the big-play touchdown. Everyone has bad games, but Jefferson rarely does. It's disappointing that they came in must-win games for managers like me.

Terry McLaurin

• My week got off to a bad start when one of my most rostered players, McLaurin, scored 1.5 fantasy points on Thursday night.  For some reason, he only received two targets compared to the 6.6 target per game he's averaged this season. The Eagles' rookie DB, Quinyon Mitchell, got the best of McLaurin this week, ending McLaurin's eight-week streak of scoring double-digit fantasy points. He and Jefferson were on my roster in my must-win game, and I'm likely out of the playoff as a result.

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Young Guns

Anthony Richardson

• Richardson played the best game of his career on Sunday, and it was not because of his two rushing touchdowns.  We all knew he could do that. This week, he improved as a passer, completing 66.7% of his passes. He was completing 44% of his passes in his previous starts. Whether the coaches changed the game plan or Richardson improved by taking a bench for the last two weeks, there was significant improvement in his quarterback play. Josh Allen improved as a passer and is now a top-tier dynasty quarterback, maybe I should not put it past Richardson to do the same. After all, this was only his 11th start of his career.

Bo Nix

• Nix has rapidly improved this season and has proven to be an excellent NFL and fantasy quarterback. He had his first 300-yard passing day and completed a ridiculous 84.8% of his passes. Earlier this season, I traded him for Trevor Lawrence. I deeply regret that now. At least I have him on the other dynasty rosters. I've been starting him in my supeflex leagues, but this week I started him for the first time in a one-quarterback league, and his 32 fantasy points carried me to a victory. He's a streamable quarterback in one-quarterback leagues and is on his way to becoming an every-week starter.

Brock Bowers

• Bowers went wild on Sunday with 13 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. He set a record for the most catches in a game by a rookie in the history of the NFL. He's set the record for the most receiving yards by week ten of a rookie season. He's simply the best tight end to come out of the draft in a very long time, if not ever. Imagine if he played for a team with a good offense and a great quarterback. Bowers has neither, but it does not stop his production. No matter how high he was drafted in rookie drafts, dynasty managers are pleased to have him. If dynasty managers could redraft rookies now, he'd be right there in the conversation with Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers for the top pick of the draft.

Old-Man Strength

Amon-Ra St. Brown

• ASB is not quite an old man, but players in their second contract can be mentioned in this segment. ASB has scored a touchdown in eight consecutive weeks and had his highest-scoring game of the season this week, catching 11 passes on 11 targets for 161 yards and two touchdowns. He and Jared Goff have a mind meld. Before last week's game, they had completed 30 passes in a row, and this week, they kept a new streak alive, going 11 for 11. What a duo!

Tysom Hill

• He's the most annoying player in fantasy football, but he's an excellent football player. This game was the most ridiculous game he's had in a while. He threw for 18 yards, had eight catches for 50 yards, and ran for 138 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yarder.  He scored 37.7 half-PPR points and was likely on the bench in most dynasty leagues. You never know when Hill is going to go off like this, but he can at any time. This 34-year-old is the definition of old man strength.

Jerry Jeudy

• Jeury is only 25 years old, but he's on his second team and second contract. He came alive for the first time with the Browns, scoring 23 fantasy points on Sunday, which is more than he has scored in a game since week 14 in 2022. It was the third-highest-scoring game of his five-year career. Jameis Winston has brought the Browns' passing game to life. He threw for 395 yards on Sunday. This week, Jeudy benefited more than Cedric Tillman. Many analysts predicted a breakout game for Jeudy this week. Dynasty managers brave enough to put him in their starting lineups were rewarded, though most managers in my leagues were not brave enough to do so. We'll see if he can earn his way back into their trust.

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Waiver Watch

Tommy Devito

• Devito has been named the new starter in New York and could help dynasty rosters in superflex leagues, especially if one of their starting quarterbacks is injured. He's the top player to add in superflex leagues this week, given the magic he had for a short time last season.

Davis Allen

• I had already written my article before last Monday night's game, or I would have had Davis as my top player to add last week. On Monday night, it was evident that he had taken the starting tight-end role from Colby Parkinson. In that game, he played 56 snaps compared to Parkinson's 11. It was a little closer this Sunday, but Allen still outsnapped Parkinson 34 to 19. Even though Parkinson had a touchdown on his lone target and Allen was not targeted, Allen has taken the lead role for the Rams and could permanently take the job in the future. I added him in many leagues last week. If he's still available, I'd add him in more this week.

Foster Moreau

• Moreau has led the team in tight-end snaps the last four weeks in a row and has become a big part of the passing game since Chris Olave was placed on IR. He caught three of four targets on Sunday for 50 yards. His role will increase until Olave gets back, and if he continues to play well, he could carve out a permanent starting role for the future by the end of the season. He's worth adding to rosters this week.

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Dynasty Trades

Blake Corum and Rasheed Shaheed <=======> Tank Bigsby and a 2024 4thround pick

• I made this trade in a league where I have Kyren Williams on my roster. I have been trying to acquire Courm all season to secure the Rams backfield for the years to come. The other manager is in first place and has Travis Etienne, so he was interested in Bigsby for the same reason. He first offered Bigsby for Corum straight up, but I was unwilling to accept that, given what Bigsby has proven this season. I asked that he add Shaheed to the deal, which was a pretty big ask, so he asked me to throw in a 4th round pick, and we found a deal. This trade won't impact either of our teams this year unless our starting running backs get injured, but it will help both teams in the future. I'm a proponent of handcuffing running backs if the team is successful running the ball and both players are talented.

Deebo Samuel <=======> George Kittle

• Two 6-4 teams and 2nd and 3rd in the rankings made this trade for their teams' needs. One team was weaker at tight end and the other at wide receiver. The team willing to sell Kittle has Cade Otton for his post-season run but needs to improve at receiver, especially with Tee Higgins's injury and CeeDee Lamb's quarterback situation. He was desperate enough to give up the top-scoring tight end for Samuel. I think he gave up too much. The team that got Kittle is loaded at wide receiver and often has Samuel on his bench week to week, so he was happy to give Samuel for Kittle for his playoff run. Both teams helped their teams for the rest of this season, but Kittle is the best player for their teams' future. Samuel will likely not be with the 49ers next year, and I doubt he will play as well when he's in another offensive system.

Kareem Hunt <=======> 2025 3rd round pick

• A team in last place wisely put Hunt on the trading back, and a team vying for a playoff spot gave up a third-round pick to help them in their playoff push.  I would have liked to get a second-round pick back, but if that's the best offer he could get, it's still worth getting something back for next year. Hunt's leading role is coming to an end soon, and his dynasty value will fall off again after Isiah Pacheco returns. If he can help his new manager win a few games at the end of the season, he'll be worth a third-round pick for a chance in the playoffs.

David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney <=======> Michael Pittman and a 2025 1st round pick

• The same team that acquired Hunt for his playoff run added two more players, Montgomery and Mooney, to give him even more power at the end of this season. Mooney is one of the year's biggest surprises and is the 8th highest-scoring wide receiver in this league. He's been amazingly consistent, too.  Montgomery will help his roster when Kareem begins to lose time to Pacheco. The team that got Pittman and the first-round pick is rebuilding, and now he has two first-round picks and two second-round picks in his rebuilding efforts, so I like what he accomplished in the trade, too. All of that said, when making trades to help in a playoff push, you must also look at the team at the top of the league and consider if the players you add are enough to make you team competitive against the top team. I am the top team in this league and have scored 230 more points this season than the team that made these two trades. These trades may help him get into the playoffs, but I doubt they will help him beat my team in the playoffs.

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