Mon Nov 20th 2023

Week Eleven Dynasty Takes

Week eleven was not as exciting as last week's action, but there were close games, even if they were low-scoring. Injuries put a damper on the week from the first game of this week, so that is disappointing, but NFL and dynasty teams have to keep moving on with who they have available. Hopefully, backups on dynasty rosters can carry teams to wins like some of the NFL backups did this week.

After following all the games this week, here are some of my dynasty takes from week eleven.

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Week Eleven Observations

Thursday Disappointment

• Sadly, the week began with a huge disappointment. The matchup between the Bengals and Ravens on Thursday was the best TNF matchup in weeks, and it promised lots of fantasy goodness. Excitement turned to despair when Mark Andrew and Joe Burrow got injured, and we now know they will miss the remainder of the season. It stinks to lose players vital to fantasy playoff runs and to have players affected by the loss of a star quarterback. Burrow's injury is a blow to Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon's managers, as they will have far fewer scoring opportunities than they would have with Borrow leading the offense. They are good enough players to have spike weeks like Saquon Barkley and DeVante Adams proved this week playing with their backup quarterbacks. Still, it's a significant downgrade to their fantasy floor week to week. I have Tee Higgins in two leagues and Joe Mixon in three, and in each league, I am in first or second place and vying for a bye week in the playoffs. My chances took a blow Thursday night, and I know other managers feel the same. I traded a 2024 first-round pick for Mark Andrews a month ago in a league where I am tied for first place. He'll be sorely missed as I make my playoff run. Injuries stink!

Quarterback Shuffle

• We also learned last week that Deshaun Watson's injuries in week ten would cost him the rest of the season, and the Browns planned to give Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) the starting role ahead of P.J. Walker. Welcome one more quarterback to the shuffle and more players losing fantasy points for the rest of the season. For the rest of the season, Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Jerome Ford will be harder to trust in dynasty lineups. Amazingly, DTR led his team to a game-winning drive on Sunday. While he was unimpressive from a fantasy standpoint, he got the job done for the Browns against the stout Steeler defense. I'm glad the Browns went with DTR because now we'll have a good amount of film to decide if he can become a starter in the NFL. He looked fantastic in the preseason, terrible in the one game he played this year, and competent in this game. Still, I'll expect less of the rest of the Browns players except David Njoku, who received more than 33% of DTR's targets with fifteen. Any tight end that gets the team's top tight end share is a starter in dynasty lineups. Thankfully, in the league where I lost Mark Andrews, Njoku is the next man up on my roster. It's still a hit, but not as bad as it could have been.

Giant Upset

• There's one more backup quarterback to talk about, and his name is Tommy DeVito. After getting crushed last week by Dallas, he rebounded and smashed the Commanders, throwing three touchdown passes. In only three games, he already has more multi-touchdown games as Kenny Pickett. That's a terrible truth for Pickett managers. What's best for dynasty managers is that he fed Saquon Barkley, the recipient of two of his touchdown passes. Barkley had a massive fantasy day, scoring 28 points. Even though Barkley fits the category of players I already described as hard to trust because of their quarterback play, I grew in confidence this week after what he told reporters. He said he loved his teammate too much to allow the coaches to limit his workload. He said he wanted to play even if the team was out of contention. He backed up his words this week, and I expect he will the rest of the season, too. Barkley is my RB-2 in two of my leagues, where I am in first place. I benched him in one league last week because of the quarterback uncertainty, but I started him in both leagues this week, and he helped me not only remain in first place but also lead the league in scoring this week. I no longer will be afraid of his fantasy floor with DeVito at the helm.

Changing The Guard

• There's an exciting "changing of the guard" on two teams that positively impact my teams as we near the fantasy playoffs. In one case, a player has taken over a lead role by his performance. In the other, an injury has moved the cracked door wide open. Jaylen Warren was named the starter ahead of Najee Harris last week and responded by having his first 100-yard rushing game. This week, he improved on that by running for 129 yards, which Harris has only done once in his entire young career. Harris does enough things well to keep a role in the offense, but he can't break a 74-yard touchdown run as Warren did on Sunday. Warren averages 6.2 yards per carry this season compared to Harris's 3.9. The stubborn Steelers have finally moved to Warren, who has moved from a startable flex play in PPR leagues to an every-week starter in every league, which is nice since I have him in seven of my nine dynasty leagues!
• The other changing of the guard is Zach Charbonnet over Ken Walker. Charbonnet out-snapped Walker each of the last two weeks, so the takeover was already in motion, even though the snap counts were affected highly by game script since Charbonnet played more on third downs and when the team was trailing. Walker left this week's game with an oblique injury, giving Charbonnet a window of time to prove what he can do with a full-time role. The Rams have the Seahawks' number and stifled their offense this week, and Seattle's next three opponents are San Francisco, Dallas, and San Francisco, two of the most formidable defenses. I'm disappointed that his first chance to start and earn a full-time role will be against those defenses, but I am excited to see what he can do. I drafted him in three leagues last year and have been waiting to put him in my lineups. In one deep league, I will start him this week. In the other two shallower leagues, I'll take a wait-and-see approach. Coach Carroll secretly wants Charbonnet to get a more significant share of the backfield. Now, he gets to see what happens when he does.

Trouble Brewing

• "Chargers gotta Charger." The Chargers lost again in a close game where they constantly shot themselves in the foot with penalties, dropped balls, poor defense, and awful coaching. Brandon Staley will be the next coach to get fired because the team is turning against each other. The frustration was most clearly expressed on a play when the center did not snap the ball on time, and a delay of the game was called just before he snapped Herbert the ball. Herbert spiked the ball to the ground and yelled at the center, perfectly expressing what Charger fans and dynasty managers of Charger players feel every week. Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert have kept their fantasy production and dynasty value afloat amidst this team struggling team, but for Herbert, even more meat on the bone is wasted. Multiple players, including Keenan Allen, dropped passes at keep times of the game. Quentin Johnston dropped a perfect deep ball near the end of the game that was right in his hands. Even Austin Ekeler needs to look better. He lumbered down the field on one play where he'd usually burst through for a touchdown. Before the season started, I fully expected Kellen Moore to unlock this offense and make it a top-yardage and top-scoring team. He has improved them to 11th in yards per game and 8th in points per game. The defense, Staley's specialty, is the problem. They should fire Staley now and let Moore take over as the interim coach to see if he has the chops to become their head coach.

Old Man Strength

• Two older players are balling out lately. One has been doing it all year, while the other has in just the last two weeks. Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in each of the previous five games and has scored a touchdown in eight of ten games this season. He's on pace to have the best year of his career, and he's 28 years old. He's clearly Russell Wilson's top red-zone target, and some of his touchdown catches this year have been incredible, including the one Sunday night. Next Gen Stats deemed his touchdown catch last week as the most difficult reception this season. Sutton's production is touchdown-dependent, but he's as consistent as can be. He's 2nd in the league in touchdown receptions but just 37th in targets and 30th in yards. Before the week began, he was the 24th-highest-scoring wide receiver because of his scoring prowess. Dynasty managers should keep riding him while he's hot.
• At age 26, Devin Singletary has taken full advantage of his time as the starter while Dameon Pierce is injured. His last two games were more productive than any Peirce has had this year, and the team is feeding Singletary. He had 30 carries last week and another 22 this week. He's gone over 100 yards in each game and is averaging more than five yards per carry. The Texans' offense is on fire, and they need to stay in the flames by giving the role to Singletary even after Pierce is healthy. He's never had a lead role since he entered the league in 2019, so I doubt he can keep this up, but the Texans should try it.

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Week Eleven Waiver Wire

Jake Browning

• Browning is one of the backup quarterbacks still available on the waiver wire in several of my superflex leagues. He's worth adding to rosters this week, even if the Bengals add a veteran quarterback. As we've already seen, backup quarterbacks can produce and help fantasy teams. He's the player I'll look to add in my superflex leagues.

Xavier Gipson

• Gipson has established himself as the WR-3 in New York, and this week he surpassed Allen Lazard in snaps, making him second on the team. Gipson won't help a fantasy team this year since the Jets are a wreck, but he's a good dynasty stash. I added him to several of my deep leagues last week. He was one of the rookie darlings in this year's Hard Knocks show, making him a fun guy to stash.

Tanner Hudson

• I mentioned Hudson last week, but I wanted to mention him again since he was not picked up in most of my leagues last week. Even though he remains in a three-way shuffle at tight end, he's been the most productive in the passing game. I'm interested in adding him to see if he can take over the position by the end of the year.

Stone Smarrt

• I have to admit that I did not know who Smarrt was after he scored a touchdown on Sunday, but with Gerald Everett injured this week, he received 35% of the team's tight-end snaps. I'm only interested in adding him in tight-end premium leagues and want to keep him on my radar.

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Week Eleven Trades

Sam Howell <=====> George Pickens

• In a one-quarterback league, a manager with Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, and Sam Howell put Howell on the block to see what kind of offers he might receive. In that league, Justin Herbert is my starting quarterback, and I only have him backed up by Tyler Heinicke. I'm tied for first place in that league, but my season would crumble if Herbert gets injured. I love Sam Howell, so I quickly offered the other manager Pickens for Howell. He thought about it for a day but ultimately accepted the offer. In a one-quarterback league where he is likely to start Burrow or Stroud every week, a young wide receiver with upside is a fair offer. I am loaded at wide receiver in this league and rarely start Pickens, so I was happy to give him away for Howell. Herbert and Howell will be a great one-two punch in my lineup for years. This trade was accepted two days before Burrow got injured, so now the other manager may have some buyer's remorse.

Desmond Ridder <=====> Marcus Mariota

• This strange trade requires context to make sense. Even so, it's lopsided, especially since it's a superflex league! The manager who traded for Mariota has Jalen Hurts, so he wanted Hurt's handcuff in case he got hurt. At the time of the trade, Ridder had lost his job to Taylor Heinicke, so he thought it was a backup-for-backup trade. Even so, Ridder's draft capital demands that his dynasty value remain way higher than Mariota's. This week, Atlanta announced they were returning to Ridder as their starter, making this trade even more lopsided.

Marquise Brown, Romeo Doubs, and a 2025 1st round pick <=====> Cooper Kupp

• A competitive team loading up for a playoff run acquired Kupp and gave up three players for one. The team that traded for the package deal was rebuilding and did a great job acquiring a young and old player and a first-round pick. Kupp's injury this week puts a damper on how the trade looks now, but if he recovers quickly and gets back to himself, things may look differently at the end of the fantasy season. I'm not a fan of Brown, but I love Doubs's upside and how he's become Jordan Love's favorite red-zone target. A future first-round pick, even two years out, will help the rebuilding team, too. I understand what both teams tried to accomplish and see this as a great contender-pretender trade. Hopefully, Kupp will bounce back to help the competitive team.

Baker Mayfield <=====> D.K. Metcalf and Isaiah Pacheco

• The reigning champ and competing team in this one-quarterback league had all his quarterbacks injured or on bye weeks this week, so he traded quite a lot to get a quarterback. He way overpaid and lost his game this week after my first place team smashed him. This trade makes sense in a superflex league but is entirely one-sided in this one-quarterback league.

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