Tue Apr 23rd 2024

Draft-Day Hopes

It's finally draft week! I can't wait to see where players get drafted and how dynasty values fluctuate by this time next week. More than that, I can't wait to start rookie drafts at the end of next week and throughout the month of May!

A few days before the draft, I thought sharing where I hope players land would be fun. This article is part hope but also part speculation about what I think could happen in this year's draft. It's very possible that these players could land on the teams I hope they do.

Here are my 2024 draft-day hopes from a dynasty perspective.

Drake Maye => Washington or Minnesota

• The odds are that Jayden Daniels will get selected by the Commanders at 1.2, but I prefer to see Maye drafted by the Commanders or see Minnesota trade up with New England at 1.3 to draft Maye. I've had Maye ranked ahead of Daniels the entire offseason and believe he's a better passer than Daniels. I would love to see him drafted by Washington or Minnesota, which have among the best weapons in the league for a young quarterback to thrive. Selfishly speaking, I have a lot of shares of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, who have yet to have a top-tier quarterback throwing their passes, and I have a decent amount of shares of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and want to see them not lose production with the loss of Kirk Cousins. Maye is the Justin Herbert of this class, as a player once considered the top prospect who declined in his final college season. I trust the early breakout years more than the later career falloff for these players, especially if they are given star targets, like the ones Maye lost in his last season at North Carolina. I hope he lands with Washington or Minnesota instead of New England, whose offensive weapons would limit him, at least early in his career.

J.J. McCarthy => Denver or New York Giants

• I'd love to see the Vikings move up to draft McCarthy for the same reasons mentioned above since they are a team full of weapons. Though I have many shares of Daniel Jones, I'd also like to see the Giants boldly draft him at 1.6. I'm a big believer in McCarthy and have had him ranked higher in my rankings since before he was expected to be a player teams trade up for in this year's draft. If drafted by New York, he'd have to do it himself since the Giants lack weapons in the passing game, but they could draft wide receivers in the next few rounds. If he falls to Denver, he'd have better weapons and a coach I have more confidence in grooming a young quarterback. Sean Payton developed Drew Brees and could do the same with a great prospect like McCarthy. In Denver, he'd become a starter weak one, but I'd like his chance to beat out Daniel Jones in New York by the end of the season.

Marvin Harrison => Arizona

• I'd hate to see the Cardinals trade back from 1.4 and miss out on the opportunity to draft Harrison, the most can't-miss wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson. Harrison will not lose dynasty value no matter what teams he lands with, but landing with a team with no WR-1 and a star quarterback, Kyler Murray would be an ideal situation. The only other landing spot I would like to see for Harrison is with the Chargers, but then he gets drafted by a team with a great quarterback but a run-first mentality. No matter who drafts him, Harrison is my top draft pick in one-quarterback leagues.

Malik Nabors => N.Y. Giants

• The Giants have been searching for a wide receiver who can help Daniel Jones for years. They've missed on every turn, but they've yet to have a franchise-changing player on their board until this year. Nabors is consistently projected to the Giants in mock drafts, and I hope it comes to fruition. Jones is not the best quarterback, so he needs a superb playmaker to help him turn quick passes into major production. Jones can do the little things an NFL average quarterback needs to do, and Nabors can do the above-average things an extraordinary wide receiver can do. They can help each other be great. 

Rome Odunze => Chicago

• Initially, it would pain me to see Odunze land with Chicago, given the presence of Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. If drafted by Chicago, Odunze would have a slower start to his career, but the long-term outlook of being paired with Caleb Williams makes me love a landing spot with Chicago. If Chicago drafts him, his rookie draft value will fall a spot or two, giving me more opportunities to draft one of my favorite prospects in this class. The landing spots will make all the difference in my post-draft rankings, but Odunze and Nabors are as tight as they could be in my pre-draft rankings. I'm tempted to move Odunze ahead of Nabors just before the NFL draft, but it won't matter much since they are so close in my rankings. The draft will help me decide which player to move to WR-2 in this class, behind Harrison.

Adonai Mitchell => Buffalo

• Mitchell should fall to the end of the first round, allowing Buffalo to select him as their new WR-1. Josh Allen needs a receiver with a wider wingspan and catch-radius. Mitchell fits the bill (pun intended). He's a controversial prospect since film and analytics people divided about his profile. He has some bad analytics profiles, but having witnessed him first-hand at UT games, I believe in this film above the analytics. He consistently made plays in the biggest of games in the biggest of moments. He's ready-made to become a starter on an NFL team from day one. An enormous open window at Buffalo would give him an an immediate chance to make an impact on the Bills and in dynasty leagues.

Xavier Worthy => Kansas City

• I'm reluctant to favor any receiver at Kansas City, giving they spread the ball around so much and see Travis Kelce as their top target. However, if Worthy lands at Kansas City, he could become their new version of Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs did not want to let Hill go, but finances (and perhaps character) caused them to do so. Though smaller than Hill, he can do all the things Hill could do back in his heyday in Kansas City. Sadly, if Kansas City drafts Worthy, his dynasty value would shoot up, just as it has for all of the receivers that have landed with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in recent years. The likely retirement of Kelce in the next year or two and the long-term contract the Chiefs could have by drafting Worthy in the first round would enable them to shift back to a wide-receiver-based offense over their tight-end-based offense. I'd trust coach Reid to make Worthy a star more than most NFL coaches who could draft this unique prospect.

Xavier Lagette => San Francisco

• I've not studied every mock draft, but I've examined a lot and have yet to see Lagette mocked to the 49ers, but I'd love to see him land there. From the speculation side, this hope is contingent upon the 49ers trading Bandon Aiyuk before or during the draft. If the 49ers lose Aiyuk, Lagette would be the perfect replacement for a long-term cheap salary. Lagette must land with a team that can use his athleticism and diversity. His kick-return skills and diversity of skills make him a great candidate for teams with a do-it-all player position. Legette is a do-it-all player, and I hope he can land with a team that knows how to use him. In that case, the Rams and Steelers would also be great candidates to draft him.

Javon Baker or Malik Washington => Pittsburgh

• Pittsburg is traditionally successful in drafting wide receivers late. Their record is overrated since they've had a lot of misses, too. Still, I give them credit for drafting wide receivers in the later rounds and finding some gems. If they try this year, I hope they try to draft Baker or Washington, guys I have ranked far above others as "My Guys" in this class. Baker and Washington are my favorite sleepers who have tremendous run-after-catch skills. Baker wins in more ways than Washington and can be an outside X receiver, whereas Washington is limited to more of a Z or slot receiver. Either way, the door is wide open for a starting role in Pittsburgh, and both Baker and Washington are better than the players on the current roster. The Steelers always draft a wide receiver or two. I sure hope they draft one of these two.

Blake Corum or Jonathan Brooks => Dallas

• Corum and Brooks are my running backs #1 and #2 in this class, and my favorite landing spot for a running back this year is with the Cowboys. Brooks is the more versatile back and could be used more in the passing game, but Corum is my favorite pure runner in this class. He's the shiftiest back and best short-yardage back in this class. Corum has the proven college pedigree, whereas Brooks has just a year of college production after playing behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Still, Brooks has the most unseen upside and proven effectiveness in the passing game. He has the greatest upside, given what's unseen in his profile. Dallas has the most open running back depth chart in the league and is sure to draft a running back. Whoever they draft, including Trey Benson, will become the RB-1 in rookie drafts this year.

Braelon Allen or Audric Estime => L.A. Chargers

• The most popular expectation is that the Chargers draft Blake Corum, Jim Harbaugh's former player at Michigan. I'm more hopeful and expecting that they will draft one of the big backs fitting the Harbaugh style. Allen and Estime are two of the biggest and most productive prospects in this class. Both players could become the next Derrick Henry-type player who's a bruiser in the run game but inactive in the passing game. Inactivity in the passing game is a knock in the dynasty value of these guys, but some players make their fantasy production solely through the run game. Allen and Estime could do the same as some of the biggest and most productive backs in this year's class.

Ray Davis => Panthers and Raiders

• Davis, one of my guys, is a player I believe can become a productive NFL running back. I would love for him to land on a team with a questionable depth chart. The Panthers have a new coach, with Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard as their leading backs. The Raiders have Zamir White and Alexander Mattison as their leading backs. Both teams need to draft for running back depth and have space for a rookie to compete for a leading role. I like Davis's chance to compete for a leading role if he lands with one of these teams.

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