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Thu Feb 21st 2019

7 Rookies I Am Lower On Than Most Experts

Differences between my rankings and DLF

I spent the last few weeks looking at film and creating my super-early rookie rankings. Last week I finally compared my rankings to others. I compared them to the Dynasty League Football (DLF) website to see how my rankings compared to their experts. I like comparing to DLF rankings because they have 5 experts ranking players and list the composite rankings of these experts.

Last week I noted the 7 players I was higher on than the DLF experts were.  Today I am noting the 7 players I am lower on than the DFL experts as of Monday, February 18th. This is just a list of the players whom I am lower on than they are at DLF. For my full rookie rankings, go to my Rookies Page.

Of course, rankings will change drastically after the combine and after the draft, but it’s very a valuable exercise to rank players based on what you see on film first. I’ve done this valuable exercise, and here is where I differ from DLF… for now at least.

Marquise Brown (10 spot ranking difference)

  •  I have him ranked #20 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #10.
  •  I have him as my #9 rookie WR, while they have him as their #6 ranked WR.

I was really surprised to see how high he was ranked in the DLF rankings and in high many NFL Draft analysts project he will be drafted.  Don’t get me wrong, I loved (actually hated, as a Texas fan) watching him in college.  I just saw him as a bit more of a suspect NFL player based on his size.  He’s lightening fast, though after today’s news about his Lisfranc surgery we won’t get to see him timed.  I assume he will still weigh in though.  I hear a lot of people comparing him to Desean Jackson.  I just think he is even smaller and slower than that.  I’d like to take a chance on him in the back half of the second round, but he seems too risky for the back half of the first round like he is being ranked by DLF currently.

Trayveon Williams (21 spot ranking difference)

  • I have him ranked #36 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #15.
  • I have him as my #14 rookie RB, while they have him as their #7 ranked RB.

I can’t argue with his insane career stats, especially a senior year with 271 carries, 1760 yards, and 18 touchdowns.  That’s nuts!  For me, there is just something about his film that makes me question his ability to be a three-down back in the NFL.  He’s best runs always seem to be in space, and I tend to like an RB who can run in traffic. I think that translates better to the NFL.  You don’t see that a lot with him.  He has a thin frame and runs very upright.  He reminds me a bit of Kerryon Johnson last year who I ended up being higher on than most experts, but I’m not convinced with Trayveon.  His combine could make me more open to moving him up, but for now I would not draft him until round three.

Justice Hill (21 spot ranking difference)

  • I have him ranked #38 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #17.
  • I have him as my #15 rookie RB, while they have him as their #9 ranked RB.

I feel like I could say almost the exact same thing for Justice as I did with Trayveon.  If you’ve not picked up on it yet, I much prefer thicker, compact, low center-of-gravity RBs.  I just don’t believe a 190-pound RB can be a long-term productive dynasty RB.  There are some exceptions but they are few and far between.  A Chris Thompson or Phillip Lindsay may pop up every now and again, but they don’t last long (we’ll see in Lindsay).  I believe NFL teams will only draft him to be a complimentary back.  He’s a fourth round rookie pick for me.  There no way I’d draft him in the second round like DLF is projecting.

Emanuel Hall (16 spot ranking difference)

  • I have him ranked #41 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #25. 
  • I have him as my #18 rookie WR, while they have him as their #10 ranked WR.

I was really surprised to see Hall ranked so high by DLF.  I saw nothing special in his film or his college stats.  He never had more than 37 receptions in a season.  It’s just that his yards-per-catch the last two years was 23.  In other words, he’s a deep ball guy.  Some of that’s the product of the Missouri offense and he does track the deep ball well, but I prefer to see a prospect have a more developed route tree and have a way, way more catches per year than Hall.  He’s a fourth round pick for me.  I would not draft him any earlier than that no matter how he does in the combine.

Paris Campbell (11 spot ranking difference)

  • I have him ranked #37 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #26.
  • I have him as my #16 rookie WR, while they have him as their #11 ranked WR.

I love his quickness, speed, craftiness, and multifaceted skills.  I just see him as a mixed-use kind of guy.  At his best, he is a Percy Harvin.  At his worst, he’s a Tavon Austin.  He is super-athletic, but I am not sure where he excels.  I am sure he’ll do well enough at the combine.  His ranking could change quite a bit for me if he is drafted by a team that knows how to best use him.  For now I would not draft him until the fourth round.

Miles Gaskin (15 spot ranking difference)

  • I have him ranked #46 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #31. 
  • I have him as my #17 rookie RB, while they have him as their #13 ranked RB.

I see Gaskin really similar to Trayveon Williams and Justice Hill, but they are ranked as the #7 and #9 RB in the DLF rankings where as Gaskin is ranked #13.  In that case, I’d be more open to drafting Gaskins late in the third or fourth round after Trayveon and Justice are drafted.  Gaskin has ridiculously consistent yearly statistical average after starting for four years at Washington.  He basically has 225 carries a year for 1300 yards.  Shoot, now that I’m writing this, I think I need to move him up in the rankings!  He’s at least a better value than Trayveon and Justice.

Diontae Johnson (25 spot ranking difference)

  • I have him ranked #61 player overall, while DLF has him ranked #36.
  • I have him as my #29 rookie WR, while they have him as their #17 ranked WR.

Alright, I’ll admit my “conference-ism.”  I feel like we’ve been burned on MAC conference stars lately.  Maybe I’m burned by the most recent Corey Davis experience, but I am beginning to downgrade WRs in mid-major conferences (maybe not RBs).  I especially don’t think a smaller (though super savvy) guy can rise as high in my rankings as some of the other WRs in this draft.  I would not draft Diontae in a 12-team five-round rookie draft.  I’d rather take guys from top-tier conferences like Miles Boykin (Notre Dame), Jaylen Smith (Louisville), Terry McLaurin (Ohio State), or Mecole Hardman (Georgia).  I have all of them ranked ahead of Diontae Johnson.

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