Tue Feb 22nd 2022

5 Rookies I Like Less Than Other Analysts

My early 2022 rookie rankings are now posted on my rookie page. Every year, I post my early rookie rankings that day after the NFL Super Bowl.

I create my early rankings simply by watching player highlights on Youtube, looking at their career stats at Sports Reference, and checking their recruiting profiles on 247 Sports. These tools give me a baseline for my initial rankings before reading and listening to player evaluations from NFL scouts and other dynasty analysts.

After creating my rankings, one of the first things I do is to compare my initial rankings with the professionals at Dynasty League Football. I note players I have ranked higher and lower than they do. Last week, I wrote about five players I ranked higher than DLF's analysts. This week, I'll write about five players I have ranked lower than the team at DLF.

Isaiah Spiller

• Spiller is my 12th ranked rookie, while DFL pros rank him 3rd. He's my 4th ranked running back, and DLF's 2nd ranked running back.
• I've only looked at DLF's rankings, but I am pretty sure that most dynasty analysts will have Spiller ranked as the second running back in this class behind Breece Hall. I have Jerome Ford and Kyren Williams ranked ahead of Spiller. Only draft capital and landing spot could change my mind. Spiller was a four-star recruit who earned a role in his first year at Texas A&M. He could not have been more consistent during his three-year career. He gained 1149 yards in his first season, 1229 in his second, and 1200 in his third. While he was consistent, he never had a dominant season as Williams and Ford had in their final season. Spiller scored seven touchdowns last year while Ford scored 20 and Williams scored 17. Breece Hall scored 23. If Spiller had at least one dominant year where he was the leading scorer on his team and compiled more like 1400-1500 yards, I would like him more. I liked what he did in the passing game at A&M, but I think he was average and just took what he could get most of the time as a runner. It's a pretty weak running back class, so I have seven wide receivers ranked ahead of Spiller, too. Whereas DLF only ranks Treylon Burks ahead of Spiller. 

Jameson Williams

• Williams is my 19th ranked rookie, while DFL pros rank him 6th. He's my 9th ranked wide receiver and DLF's 4th ranked wide receiver.
• It's going to be interesting to see what NFL teams think about Williams, who had only one great season in his college career, but it was historically excellent. He has 1595 yards receiving and 15 receiving touchdowns and averaged 19.9 yards per catch. There's no doubt that he's a big play waiting to happen. He wins with speed and burned defenses all season with go routes. I'm not confident he can do the same in the NFL, and I prefer wide receivers who win in ways other than sheer speed. Over the last few years, I've been leery of Alabama wide receivers because I think their stats get padded. After all, the team is so much better than 95% of the teams they play. I admit to being wrong on Jaylen Waddle last year, but Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy have been busts from a dynasty perspective, and they all had multiple years of production compared to Williams's one season after transferring from Ohio State to Alabama. I know Ohio State is loaded with top-tier wide receiver recruits, but his inability to get playing time and decision to transfer are red flags to me too. I know a lot of dynasty managers will be eager to draft Williams, and a few NFL teams will too, but I'd prefer more well-rounded wide receivers with two to three production years ahead of him.

George Pickens

• Pickens is my 22nd ranked rookie, while DFL pros rank him 10th. He's my 12th ranked wide receiver and DLF's 7th ranked wide receiver.
• To rank Pickens 10th in this class, the folks at DLF are betting on Picken's pedigree and breakout freshman season because, since that time, injuries and poorer play have changed the outlook of his future. I'm willing to gamble on a five-star recruit who was the 4th ranked wide receiver in the nation when he signed with Georgia, but not in the first round of rookie drafts. Picken's receiving yardage and touchdowns decreased every year since his freshmen season, and that's too big of a concern for me. I think it will be to NFL scouts as well. NFL teams and dynasty managers will have to take a stance on players like Picken and Justyn Ross, the receiver from Clemson who, like Pickens, had a breakout freshman season before getting injured and never returning to form. The pros at DLF have taken the gamble on Picken's but not Ross, who they have ranked 30th. I have Pickens and Ross ranked 22nd and 24th, respectively. That's where I'd be willing to bet on talent once seen over consistent production or one stellar season from a wide receiver.

Tyler Allgeier

• Allgeier is my 26th ranked rookie, while DFL pros rank him 16th. He's my 7th ranked running back and DLF's 6th ranked running back.
• It may seem unfair to some people, but I have a hard time ranking an unrecruited walk-on running back ahead of four and five-star recruits. Allgeier walked on to the BYU team and turned into one of the most productive running backs in the country last season with 1800 yards and 23 touchdowns. The chip on his shoulder could make him a player NFL teams and dynasty managers are eager to draft, but I'm less willing to do so than others apparently, based on the 10-spot differences in my rankings. The DLF pros and I have him similarly ranked among the running backs of this class, but I have a host of wide receivers, and a few quarterbacks ranked ahead of Allgeier in my overall rankings. That said, I see Allgeier as the last player in a tier. After him at #26, my confidence level in players drops significantly.

Hassan Haskins

• Haskins is my 47th ranked rookie, while DFL pros rank him 39th. He's my 16th ranked running back and DLF's 15th ranked running back.
• Haskins had an excellent senior season, but I did not see much on film other than his strength as a goal-line back, which made me think he would be drafted highly by an NFL team or dynasty managers. He padded his stats by playing on an excellent Michigan team that scored many touchdowns last season. He had 1327 rushing yards last season, but that was in 14 games. His average yards per rush was 4.9, much lower than six yards per carry, the threshold that causes me to move running backs up my rankings. Running backs under five yards per carry get pushed down in my rankings. I think Haskins can become a suitable backup in the NFL but will never have an opportunity to be a starter. With a rank of #36, the pros at DLF don't think so either, but I see him as a back-of-the-fourth round prospect while they see him as a back-of-the-third round prospect. I have seven other running backs ahead of him between 36 and 47 in my rankings, so there are plenty of running backs that think have more upside than Haskins in the backend of this rookie class.

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