Tue Apr 1st 2025

Off-season Trade Evaluations

I won't post an article next week because I'm off to a destination wedding tomorrow. Before I leave town, I thought it would be fun to do a quick "grade the trade" article, commenting on the trades that have taken place in my leagues over the last few months. It's a good chance to consider how Dynasty Freek managers value players at this time of year. Some of these trades are quite surprising, proving that it only takes one manager with a different value on a player to make a significant trade.  More trades were made in my nine dynasty leagues than this, but these are the ten I find most interesting.

Patrick Mahomes <=====> C.J. Stroud

• This was my only off-season trade so far. I received an offer for Stroud for Mahomes and immediately accepted. I have Mahomes ranked as my 6th ranked dynasty quarterback and Stoud as my 8th, so they are close. Still, I'd rather have the far more proven Mahomes than Stroud, even if Stroud is six years younger. I should clarify that this is in a one-quarterback league. I don't think I would have accepted the trade in a superflex league, but I would have seriously considered it. Mahomes has deeply disappointed dynasty managers the last two years, but he's still got all that it takes. I am excited about the receiving weapons they have surrounded him with and think the Chiefs could become more pass-heavy in the coming years. I also must admit that I have had no shares of Mahomes until now, so I was excited to have him on one of my rosters for the first time.  

Tony Pollard <=====> 2.11 and 3.11

• A strong contending team traded Pollard for the 2.11 and 3.11 to a rebuilding team that needs picks in this year's draft class. The trade seems pretty even to me, though I have concerns whenever trading for running backs at this time of year, especially this year with a class so deep at running back. If the Titans draft a running back on day three, I'd be concerned for this future in Tennessee. The 2.11 or 3.11 pick could even be a player selected by Tennessee in this year's draft. If the Titans don't draft a running back or wait until late day three, I see this trade as a win for the team that traded for him, but if they do not, I'd give the edge to the team that added the two draft picks. That said, the 2.11 and 3.11 hardly ever hit, so I get buying the known player for the two unknown.

David Montgomery <=====> 2.6

• A rebuilding team traded Montgomery to a contending team for 2.6. This feels like a fair trade between a contending and rebuilding tea. That said, the 2.6 (pick 18) and Mongomery have a lot of question marks. It's hard to hit on pick 18 in rookie drafts, so there is a lot of uncertainty there. Still, Mongomery's dynasty value is as questionable as it has been in a while since his injury last year showed how productive Jahmyr Gibbs can be when given a full load. The Lions have lost their offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, who took the head coaching job for the Bears. Montgomery's role is more of an unknown than it has ever been.  Given the uncertainty of the pick and the player, both managers took a risk on this trade. It's an even trade that will take until next year to determine the winner.

A.J. Dillon <=====> 3.10

• This simple trade makes more sense when knowing that the team that traded for Dillon has Saquon Barkley on their roster. They secured a presumed handcuff for a late third-round pick. I say presumed handcuff because I still believe the Eagles believe in Will Shipley and see him as their primary backup to Barkley, especially after his few impressive performances at the end of last year. The Eagles are far more likely to split their running back workload next year after giving Barkley so many carries last year, but I'm not sure who will become the primary back to share the load, Dillon or Shipley. For a 3.10 pick, I could see hedging your bets that it's Dillon, but I believe Shipley will share the load with Barkley next season, making me favor the 3.10 pick side pick of this trade.

Michael Penix, Ben Sinnot, 2025 1st and 2nd round picks <=====> Saquon Barkley and Adam Thielen

• In this superflex tight-end premium league (1.75 PPR), Barkley was sold for a haul of players and picks. This is the biggest trade I have seen this offseason. Obviously, the team that traded for Barkley considers themselves a win-now team, given how much they gave up, or perhaps they don't believe in Penix as a future starter and were disappointed when the Commanders re-signed Zach Ertz. I disagree with this manager and see the haul of second-year players and rookie picks as the clear win in this trade. I believe in Penix but have questions about Sinnot but the two extra stabs in the first and second rounds of this year's draft put this trade over the top for me. In a superflex league, I'd gladly trade Barkley for Penix and a first-round pick, but he added a second-round pick and Sinnot in a tight-end premium league. That's a clear win for me.

Davante Adams <=====> Two 2nd round picks

• This trade seems about right for me. I loved Adams landing with the Rams and am confident he has two years of highly productive season ahead of him. If I was a contender, I'd love to have Adams for two more years. If I were a rebuilder, I would love to have two second-round shots at a player in this class.  I prefer a first-round pick rather than the two in the second round, but I don't think Adams, as good as his landing spot was, is tradeable for a first-round pick any longer. It's a fair trade for both teams. The rebuilding team needs to hit on one or two of his three second-round picks since he still holds his own pick. I like those odds in this year's class.

Jonathan Taylor <=====> DeVonta Smith

• This trade looked lopsided to me, so I assumed the only way it made sense was that a team loaded at wide receiver traded for a team loaded at running back, but when I looked, that was not the case. I far prefer Taylor over Smith in this trade, but it reveals that some Dynasty Freeks have soured on Taylor. Whether it's his injuries or concerns about Anthony Richardson not moving the offense or stealing goalline carries. Some managers have soured on Taylor. I'm in the other camp, however, and feel like he's poised for a tremendous bounce back this next season, especially if Daniel Jones wins the starting role and the Colts draft Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland to improve their passing game. I'm still way higher on Taylor than Smith as a WR-2 in Philadelphia.

Brock Purdy <=====> Sam Darnold and 1st round pick

• This trade was made in a superflex league where one manager was obviously not pleased with Darnold's signing with Seattle and, thus, thought he was tradeable even while adding a first-round draft pick. Both teams made a bold move based on their hopes for Darnold's future in Seattle, and everything will come down to that. It shows that some dynasty managers believe he can solidify a long-term role as Seattle's starter, while others do not. Purdy seems sure to sign a new contract and solidify his long-term role in San Francisco, but Darnold's role is far more uncertain. This trade reveals how Dynasty Freeks are betting on Darold's future. I, for one, am betting on it.  I think he can become the Seahawks's long-term starter and, thus, would love to have Darnold and a first-round pick for Purdy. It's a risk I'd be willing to take.

Jonnu Smith <=====> Christian McCaffrey

Jonnu Smith <=====> Evan Engram and Braelon Allen

• These last two trades for Jonnu Smith shocked me. He had an incredible season last year in Miami in the eighth year of his career, but I cannot believe he is valued by some dynasty manager as much as he's valued in these trades. These trades were both in my tight-end premium league where tight ends get 1.75 PPR, where Smith finished as the 5th highest-scoring tight end, even though he was picked up off the waiver wire last year. I'm amazed at how many dynasty managers, or at least these two, have placed in Smith after just one year of production in a season with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle injured for much of the season. I expect last season to be the best of Smith's career rather than him building upon it. He'll be a suitable starter in dynasty rosters for a few years, but he's not worth trading for Christian McCaffrey or Evan Engram in dynasty leagues, even if it's a 1.75 PPR league for tight ends. Some managers have taken a big step of faith to think so.

 

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