Tue Jun 9th 2026

Dynasty Stock Fallers Since Last Year

• Nabers was drafted 9th in last year’s draft and was drafted 26th in this year’s draft. He was a first-round pick a year ago and a third-round pick this year.
• It’s been a full year of bad news with Nabers since he tore his ACL in week four last year.  His surgery was more complicated than most, and is taking much longer to heal than dynasty managers expected.  As a result, he’s no longer seen as a top-tier dynasty receiver worth drafting in the first round, but a second-tier wide receiver to draft at the top of the third round. Dynasty managers have dinged him a bit, but still believe he can come back and produce even more than he did in his rookie seasons since the Giants have a much better quarterback with Jaxson Dart. He was the sixth receiver selected in this draft, and he remains my seventh-ranked dynasty wide receiver. I believe he will bounce back fine this season and could even climb the dynasty rankings again by the end of the year.

Brian Thomas

• Thomas was drafted 18th in last year’s draft and was drafted 54th in this year’s draft. He was a second-round pick a year ago and a fifth-round pick this year.
• I still believe in Nabers, but I have lost faith in Thomas, and so have dynasty managers, given his fall to the fifth round. He’s fallen to 38th in my dynasty rankings, one spot ahead of his teammate, Jacoby Meyers, who is ranked 39th. I have their teammate, Parker Washington, who outplayed them both at the end of last season, ranked 48th.  So they are all within ten spots of each other in my rankings. No one knows quite what to expect from the Jaguars receivers next year, which is why I have them ranked so closely together for now, but very early in the season, I am sure the three will separate themselves. Thomas fell to the fifth round of this most recent draft, while Meyers was drafted in the twelfth round and Washington in the eleventh. Clearly, I am much lower on Thomas and higher on his teammates, as evidenced by my rankings and rosters: I have no shares of Thomas and have Washington and/or Meyers on five of my ten dynasty rosters.

Nico Collins

• Collins was drafted 19th in last year’s draft and was drafted 42nd in this year’s draft. He was a second-round pick a year ago and a fourth-round pick this year.
• Collins still holds great dynasty value. He’s my eleventh-ranked dynasty wide receiver and was the tenth receiver selected in this draft, but his dynasty stock has slowly fallen over the last two seasons, primarily because C.J. Stroud has not played as well as he did in his breakout rookie year.  Stroud scored 322 fantasy points as a rookie, but just 258 and 245 the last two years. Stroud has struggled, and the Texans have built one of the best defenses in the NFL and have chosen to try to win with it and a conservative offense. These are the factors affecting Collins, not his on-field play and ability. I expect much of the same in the years to come, which means Collins’ upside on dynasty rosters is capped. He’s still a fantastic player to roster and start, but his dynasty stock will not rise again.

Kyler Murray

• Murray was drafted 33rd in last year’s draft and was drafted 90th in this year’s draft. He was a third-round pick a year ago and an eighth-round pick this year.
• Murray was the last quarterback with significant upside who was drafted in this most recent start-up. I planned to draft him with my next pick, but he was selected six spots ahead of me. His dynasty stock is the lowest it’s ever been, but I am confident he will succeed in Minnesota this year and become the latest quarterback redemption story, as Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones were the last two seasons. Only this time, the Vikings won’t let him walk in free agency as they did with Darnold and Jones. Murray has all the weapons in place and an offensive system that will help him thrive. He should not have fallen to the eighth round in this start-up draft. He’s my 16th-ranked quarterback, but he was the 24th quarterback selected in this draft.

Kyren Williams

• Williams was drafted 35th in last year’s draft and was drafted 61st in this year’s draft. He was a third-round pick a year ago and a sixth-round pick this year.
• Williams continues to prove everyone wrong every year, but many dynasty managers don’t believe in him. He holds off the rookies the Rams draft each year and maintains the leading role on one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. Blake Corum did cut into his workload more last year than he did in his rookie season, and that’s largely the reason the managers in this start-up draft let him fall to the top of the sixth round, but I think these managers made a mistake in doing so. Williams is as reliable and productive as any running back in the league. Since earning the starting role, he’s scored 222, 236, and 227 fantasy points over the last three seasons. There’s no reason to think he won’t do the same over the next few years, too.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

• Harrison was drafted 38th in last year’s draft and was drafted 75th in this year’s draft. He was a fourth-round pick a year ago and a seventh-round pick this year.
• Harrison’s dynasty value has been on the decline from the moment he was drafted by the Cardinals. Yet, dynasty managers are still rightfully holding out hope that the Cardinals’ coaching change this year and hopefully a new quarterback drafted in 2027 will finally be the key to unlocking Harrison’s productivity. Michael Wilson’s breakout season last year was the contributing factor to Harrison falling from the fourth to the seventh rounds over the last year. Dynasty managers wondered why Wilson could break out on a bad team but Harrison could not. It’s a fair question to ask. If Harrison can’t have the best season of his career this season in year three, it’s time for dynasty managers to give up on him ever living up to his once-in-a-generation receiver hype when he was drafted with the 1.1 in most rookie drafts.  

Bucky Irving

• Irving was drafted 42nd in last year’s draft and was drafted 77th in this year’s draft. He was a fourth-round pick a year ago and a seventh-round pick this year.
• Irving rightfully deserved a fall in dynasty stock after an injury-plagued season last year when two different Buccaneers outproduced him in the backfield. Rachaad White may be gone, but the Bucannerrs kept Sean Tucker, whom they trusted more in the red zone, and brought in Kenny Gainwell, who had the best year of his career last season with the Steelers. The Bucs backfield will be crowded again this season, and I don’t expect Irving to get even 50% of the team’s running back touches next season. I think Bucky’s rookie season is an outlier, and he’s never going to have a season like that again in his career.

Rome Odunze

• Odunze was drafted 47th in last year’s draft and was drafted 67th in this year’s draft. He was a fourth-round pick a year ago and a sixth-round pick this year.
• Odunze started last season on fire, but then fell off a cliff and battled injuries for the rest of the season, while Luther Burden and Colston Loveland did just the opposite by starting slow and ending the season on fire. That’s why Odunze dropped twenty spots from last year’s startup draft to this year’s. I’m still confident in Odunze’s talent and expect him to solidify a stronger role in the offense in this system, and I believe he’s better than Luther Burden, but the gap between them has decreased. Odunze is my 21st-ranked dynasty receiver, and Burden is my 23rd. That’s how close it’s become with the bets dynasty managers are making regarding who will become the top wide receiver target in Chicago in the years to come. In this most recent startup draft, Burden was selected 13 spots after Odunze. The bigger problem each of them faces is Loveland becoming the Bears' top target-getter, which he was at the end of the season, when he averaged 12 targets per game over the last four games they played.

D.K. Metcalf

• Metcalf was drafted 55th in last year’s draft and was drafted 103rd in this year’s draft. He was a fifth-round pick a year ago and a ninth-round pick this year.
• Metcalf has rightly fallen each of the last two seasons since they were the two least productive of his career. His playing style does not lend itself to the way Aaron Rodgers has to play in his old age, too, so he’s not going to get more productive this season. The Steelers added Michael Pittman to their roster this year, too, and he is built to succeed in the short passing game that Rodgers needs to play, so I expect Pittman to outtarget Metcalf this season. Unfortunately for his dynasty managers, Metcalf’s precipitous fall of 48 draft spots from last year to this year is rightly deserved.

T.J. Hockenson

• Hockenson was drafted 57th in last year’s draft and was drafted 140th in this year’s draft. He was a fifth-round pick a year ago and a twelfth-round pick this year.
• The biggest faller award goes to Hockenson, who dropped 83 spots from his draft position last year in a tight-end premium league. Hockenson averaged less than four fantasy points per game last season with the Vikings, whose passing game was pathetic due to terrible quarterback play. Hockenson is clearly past his prime, but some dynasty managers believe in him more than I do. He’s fallen to the 19th-ranked tight end in my dynasty rankings, but in this start-up draft, he was the 15th  tight end selected. Last year’s amazing rookie class of tight ends has moved all veteran tight ends down the dynasty rankings. I now have four second-year and two rookie tight ends ranked ahead of Hockenson.

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