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Fri Feb 8th 2019

Assessing My 2018 Trades

Winners, Losers, and To-Be-Determined

Here's an honest assessment of the trades I made this year.  I welcome your thoughts and feedback.  I see some as winners, some as losers, and some as to-be-determined.

Winning Trades

Nick Chubb, Carlos Hyde and OJ Howard for Devonta Freeman and Trey Burton

This was my favorite trade this season.  Chubb was the #1 guy I tried to trade for this year.  I was thrilled to get him.  This was early in the season when everyone was high on Burton and Freeman was still healthy.  Hyde was out touching Chubb like 10 to 1, so the owner may have been impatient with Chubb.  I felt like Freeman was past his prime and was ready to trade him even before he got injured.  This was a classic sell-high and buy-low type of trade.  It was perfectly timed.

Michael Thomas and Jamaal Williams for Kalen Ballage, Brandin Cooks

This trade was made during the rookie draft with an owner who really wanted to trade up for Ballage.  Michael Thomas had a good year before but did not catch a lot of touchdowns so maybe the owner thought Cooks was about equal to Thomas.  Cooks had a great year too, but Thomas is a top five dynasty WR so I love him as the prize in this trade.   I still like holding Jamaal Williams as a back up to Aaron Jones who I believe will be injury prone.

DeAndre Hopkins and Devonta Freeman and OBJ

This was a block-buster trade for sure.  I suspect some of you will consider this a losing trade for me, but I could not be more happy with it.  I already said I was down on Freeman this year and had been looking to move him.  OBJ, while a top five WR for sure, has a few red flags that concerned me.  He has a bad and aging QB (particularly at the time when I traded him), he is injury prone (he did get injured again), and he has an attitude problem.  Those reasons were enough for me to make this trade.  Hopkins is my #1 ranked WR and a #5 ranked player overall, so I feel like I got the best player in the trade.

Marlon Mack, Jarvis Landry for Tyler Boyd, OJ Howard, and 3.8

This was another attempt to buy-low and sell-high.  I timed this one pretty well too.  Mack went on a tear after the trade and I believe he has won the lead back role there in Indianapolis.  Landry never really broke out as I hoped, but I still trust his talent and feel Cleveland is an ascending offense.  I believe in Boyd, but don’t feel like he can have a better year than he did last year.  I was willing to trade Howard because I have Ertz as my starting tight end in that league.  I kind of wish I had not given up pick 3.8, but I was willing to do so because this is a league that is very active in making trades during the rookie draft.  If I need to get back into the 3rd round, I think I’ll be able to do so.

Anthony Miller for Josh Rosen and 2.12

This trade was made during the rookie draft in the salary cap league I co-manage with my buddy, Dave.  We have a lot of young stud RBs and good contracts and a few top WRs who are older.  We wanted to get younger at WR and add another rookie contract so we’d have more money in the free agent auction draft.  Plus we’re super high on Miller and Nagy’s offense.  Miller played well enough this year to make me consider this trade a win.  We won the championship for the second year in a row so the pick we gave up turned into the 2.12, so that was also good news.

Losing Trades

1.9 for George Kittle

This is my biggest regret.  The team I traded with was by far the worst team in our league two years ago.  It because an orphan team last season and was picked up by a great owner.  I thought this team would yield me at least a top four rookie pick when I made the trade.  Instead, Kittle, Chubb, Lindsay, and McCaffrey varied his team to the Super Bowl and I ended up with pick 1.9 in a 10 team league.  I’d rather have Kittle.  I am loaded at WR in that league (Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Juju) but very weak at RB.  This is not the best rookie draft for RBs, so It looks like an even worse trade now.

Eli Manning and Jeff Heuerman for Eric Ebron

This trade looks awful, but it’s important to note that it was in a salary cap league.  We offloaded a lot of money to make the trade.  It was early in the season and we expected Jack Doyle to return and limit Ebron’s touches.  Plus, we had OJ Howard starting for us while still on his rookie contract.  Doyle did come back, but promptly got hurt again and OJ Howard was lost for the year to injury too.  Thankfully we still won the Super Bowl for the second year in a row, helped largely by Kyle Rudolf’s one big game in the fantasy Super Bowl.  I think we’d still like to have Ebron for depth, but we’re fine knowing Howard will start for us next year and we have about 6 million more dollars to spend in free agency.

Spencer Ware for Tre’Quan Smith

I made this trade in a league I described above where I am really weak at RB and loaded at WR.  I picked up Damien Williams off waivers so I wanted Ware too after the Hunt suspension.  Ware barely did anything, of course, and now he is a free agent.  If he resigns with Kansas City, I would like this trade for me.  I did not know he was going to be a free agent this offseason, so that was not very smart of me.

CJ Uzomah for Keelan Cole

This one is not worth mentioning really, but it happened.  I needed Uzomah during a bye week.  I add it to the losing trades list because I would rather have Cole and Uzomah right now, though I have actually dropped both players from my rosters completely in leagues where I had either of them. If Uzomah re-signs with Cincinnati, I would like him more than Cole.

To-Be-Determined Trades

Chris Thompson and 1.8 for Derrick Henry

So far, I am really happy about this trade.  I have been trying to trade Henry since his pick last year at the end of the season.  Well, he peaked again and I finally got a first round pick for him.  I have solid RB starters in this league (McCaffrey, Conner, K. Johnson) while I really need depth and a started WR-3 behind Hopkins and K. Allen).  I like this year’s WR draft class and now have two first round picks.  Henry has had all the time needed to prove he can be consistent, but he’s not.  He is too up and down for me.  I was glad to finally sell him high.  Chris Thompson has some hope to get back to his 2017 form if he can stay healthy and they can find a QB.

D’Onta Foreman for 1.12

This is a bit more complicated given it was in a salary-cap league.  Our team is stacked.  I co-manage the team with my buddy, Dave.  We won the Super Bowl two years ago and made this trade during the rookie draft.  We thought Foreman would play this year (and beat out Lamar Miller) and we’d have his rights under a rookie contract for two more years.  Obviously, he did not return from injury until late in the season.  The good news is that we won the Super Bowl for the second year in a row, so we only gave up pick 2.12.  We sill love Forman’s talent way more than Miller, but now fear Houston may be in the market for a free agent RB.  Time will tell.

Ben Roethlisberger for 2.8

I did this trade the week before the playoffs started.  I had Rivers as my starting QB with Garoppolo on IR.  I had a Super Bowl caliber team and feared Rivers’ match-up against Baltimore in the fantasy Super Bowl.  It was a gutsy call that didn’t work out because I lost in the semi-final game by 1 point when I chose to start Big Ben over Rivers who scored far more than him.  Been there.  Done that.  Still, Ben was the QB2 in this league, so I am happy to stream him with Rivers and Garoppolo next year.  I am not too confident in the #18 pick of this year’s rookie draft.

Jared Goff, Matt Stafford for Zach Ertz and Joe Flacco

This one looks bad on paper for sure, but let me explain.  Russell Wilson was my only QB with Rosen and Bradford behind him.  Seattle started the year so bad and so run-focused that Wilson was costing me games.  Goff was super hot, so he was my target.  I had another trade in place to get me Cook as my starting TE, so I made the deals on the same day.  I put this in the “to-be-determined” category because I still believe Goff can become a top 5 QB and I fear Seattle is going to continue to be a run-first team.  Honestly, I am really good at finding young tight ends and have Ian Thomas to back up and replace Cooks.  I also believe Goedert is going to cut into Ertz’s production in the coming year.  I still call this one a toss-up.

Golden Tate and Jared Cook for Doug Baldwin, David Moore

As I just mentioned, I became very frustrated with the shift in the Seattle offense to being so run-heavy.  I needed a TE to help me survive the Ertz trade, so I aimed for Cook who ended up as the #5 TE on the year.  I really hope he resigns with Oakland and gets a few more good years out of that system.  Unfortunately, Tate was traded to Philly the week after I made this trade.  This made me a loser right away.  However, I’m still not hopeful for the future of Baldwin or Moore.  I think the late remaining years of Cooks and Tate could be more productive, depending on where they land in free agency.  I think the jury is still out on this trade.

4.8 for Rod Smith

I was just trying to pick up a pick for Rod Smith.  I traded him to the Zeke owner so he’d have a handcuff.  I really wanted a 3rd round pick but couldn’t get it.  I think he’ll win the trade if Smith stays in Dallas, but if Smith is buried on another depth chart after free agency, I could win depending on who I get with the 38th player in the rookie draft.

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