Tue Dec 27th 2022

Week Sixteen Review

Merry Christmas. I hope you enjoyed football and family this weekend as I did. It was fun to have a full slate of games on Christmas Eve and three on Christmas day. The games were less exciting than in previous weeks, but every game is exciting when following fantasy players in the playoffs.

I am still alive in three semifinal games, but the games will be decided on Monday night. I have a 70% of winning in two of the games and a 30% chance in the other. It will be a fun night to watch football as I seek to make the Super Bowl in three of my nine dynasty leagues.

After following all the week-sixteen games, here are some quick observations from a dynasty perspective.

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Week Sixteen Observations

Winter Weather

• The weather was this week's story, as more than half the games were affected by wintery weather. The week started with a rainy game in New York, which stifled the performance of all Jets and Jaguars not named Evan Engram, though Zack Wilson stifled the Jets more than the weather did. Cleveland hosted the Saints for the coldest game in their team's history and created the lowest over-under in 14 years at 31 points. They hit the under with 27. Saturday games were capped by David Carr playing predictably awful against Pittsburg in the cold and rain, where the teams combined for 23 total points in the Steelers' victory 13-10. The weather was an equal opportunity destroyer of fantasy outputs, making this holiday weekend full of less cheer than usual for dynasty managers in the playoffs.

Pouncing Panthers

• The Panthers are pouncing and now control their own destiny to make the playoffs by winning the awful NFC south. Steve Wilks deserves all the credit for the team's turnaround and could earn the job permanently if he continues to win. The Panthers blew out the red-hot Lions 37 to 23, but the game was not even that close. They pounded the Lions' stout run defense with 320 yards on the ground, including career-high rushing yards for D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard with 165 and 125 yards, respectively. After writing last week about how Hubbard had taken over the lead role ahead of Foreman, this week Foreman out-touched Hubbard nearly two to one. Sam Darnold helped the team two, connecting with D.J. Moore or a touchdown for the second week in a row. Darnold's contract expires at the end of this season, as does Foreman's, so they're doing all they can to prove that they're worth re-signing, just as their interim head coach is.

Iowa Boys Go Off

• George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson went off this week, singlehandedly winning games for their dynasty managers. Kittle has gone ballistic the last two weeks with 23 and 30-point games in the fantasy playoffs. He's always been capable of such game-winning performances, but they have been too few and far between this year. It's not a coincidence that his two biggest games of the year occurred with Deebo Samuel out with an injury. Kittle needs Samuel off the field to become the top-targeted player like he was this week. Hockenson scored two points more than Kittle this week in his best week of the season. He's been a vital part of the offense since he was traded to the Vikings, averaging more than ten targets per game, making him the second-most targeted player behind Justin Jefferson. His dynasty value has risen significantly after the trade, and he's now the second-highest-scoring tight end in the league behind only Travis Kelce, two spots ahead of Kittle, who is now the fourth-highest-scoring tight end this season. These Iowa boys are carrying dynasty teams in the playoffs and are top-tier dynasty assets in the prime of their careers.

The Future Is Bright #1

• The Steelers played in one of the low-scoring weather-affected games, but they gave dynasty managers a lot to look forward to in the future with their young talent. Kenny Picket looked respectable coming back from his injury to start again. What's best from a dynasty perspective was witnessing his connection with George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, connecting with Pickens on a touchdown and Freiermuth a team-leading seven times. Najee Harris had a mediocre game from a fantasy perspective. Still, he was heavily involved in the offense with 18 carries and six catches, and Jaylen Warren continues to look great when he's given a series to spell Harris. The Steelers have improved as the season progressed and have a chance to make the playoffs, especially if they can beat the struggling Ravens in the game the NFL moved to next Sunday night. Dynasty managers have to be excited about the future of the young players on this team on the rise.

The Future Is Bright #2

• Pittsburg is not the only team with young players that are improving. The Falcons have two of their own as well. Drake London has looked the part of a WR-1 the last two weeks with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, receiving a season-high seven catches in each of the previous two games. At the same time, Tyler Allgeier received season-high carries, with 17 and 18 carries each of the last two weeks. The young Falcons' offense was kept out of the end zone on Saturday by the very tough Ravens defense, but they fought hard and gave dynasty managers hope for their future. As for Ridder, the verdict is still out on his dynasty stock, but he improved in his second start, completing 67% of his passes compared to 50% in his first start and had 6.6 yards per completion compared to his terrible 3.7 yards per completion last week. That's quite an improvement. If the Falcons continue to lose, they will find themselves in position to draft another quarterback, so I'm tempering my hope for Ridder while keeping my hopes modest for Allgeier and very high for London.

The Future Is Uncertain

• Another rookie quarterback will get a chance to prove himself to end the season after Ryan Tannehill surprisingly had ankle surgery at the end of the last week. Malik Willis got his first start of the season on Saturday and lost to the worst team in the league, the Houston Texans. Willis's start was about as bad as Ridder's first start last week. He only passed for 99 yards, and he threw two interceptions. As expected, he provided fantasy points with his legs, running for 43 yards and a touchdown, giving him ten fantasy points on the ground. Take away his production running, and he would have scored negative points passing this week. It's not fair to judge Willis too harshly after his first start in one of this week's weather-affected games, but he did not look good. Unlike the Falcons, the Titans will not be in position to draft a quarterback in this class, and they have Tannehill under contract for another year. Unless Willis drastically improves over the last two weeks of this season, he'll be Tannehill's backup for one more year, causing dynasty managers to keep a backup quarterback on their roster for one more season because he could ultimately be worth the wait.

Quarterback Carousel

• Atlanta and Tennessee are among many teams who could have a different starting quarterback next season. I predict a quarterback carousel this offseason. With 4-5 quarterbacks likely to get drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and starters in the last year of their contract or with cheap buy-out options in their contracts, many teams will have fresh faces leading their teams next year, and many career starters will have to accept backup roles. The quarterback carousel worked for the Buccaneers three years ago when they signed Tom Brady, and it worked for the Rams two seasons ago when they traded for Matt Stafford, but this season nearly all quarterbacks that landed with new teams failed. Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, and Russell Wilson all failed this season with their new teams, and except for Wilson, they should be backups next season. Lamar Jackson is sure to get a deal done in Baltimore, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones have proved enough to re-sign with Seattle and the Giants, but Seattle has Denver's first-round pick, so they'll still draft a quarterback. Next year, the following teams will likely have new quarterbacks: the Jets, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Texans, Commanders, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Seahawks, and Raiders. That's more than 25% of the league. I could be wrong, but I believe Brady will retire, the Raiders and Commanders with buy out Wentz and Carr, Kyler Murray will not be healthy to start the season, and the Texans, Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, and Jets will draft quarterbacks. Quarterbacks cause the dynasty value of players on their teams to rise and fall, and the market will get shaken up this year.

 

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Week Sixteen Waiver Wire

Remember, I play in leagues with 300 to 360 players rostered. In dynasty leagues with that many players rostered, here's a list of the players I plan to add to my rosters this week.

Shane Zylstra

• I have to consider adding Zylstra to my teams after his three-touchdown performance on Sunday. He led the team in tight end snaps for the first time this week and had six targets. He's in the final year of his contract, so his future is very uncertain, but he's the player I'm most willing to take a shot on this week, even if to hold in the offseason to see what the Lions do with the position. They may fill the big hole left when they traded T.J. Hockenson with a free agent this offseason, but they may re-sign Zylstra if he proves something at the end of this season like he did this week.

Jordan Akins

• Houston continues to rotate their tight ends, and a different tight end leads the team in snaps almost every week, but Akins is the definitive leader on the team in tight end targets, which have ticked up even more in recent weeks. He has 43 targets compared to Brevin Jordan's 24 this season. Both numbers could be better, and the Texans will make many changes next season. Akins is in the last year of his contract, so he may not be with the team, so he's not a must-add this week, but he's a player I'd consider adding in deep leagues.

Trenton Irwin

• Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all under contract in 2023, so I'm hesitant to add Irwin to my rosters, but I'd consider adding him in deep leagues. He scored three touchdowns in the last three weeks, including two this week. He was the clear WR-3 on the team while Chase was injured and will start for the team when any of their top three options are injured. He's under contract for one more year, too, so he's a player I'd add in super deep leagues. I already picked him up in a 14-team league last week.

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