Tue Sep 12th 2023

Week One Dynasty Takes

Football is back! It was a blast to watch the NFL and follow our dynasty teams this weekend. Dynasty managers were as excited as ever to start the season, while their dynasty players struggled to produce this week, especially in the early games. At halftime of the eight early games, there were only 13 touchdowns scored. That's 13 touchdowns from 16 teams in the first half. Thankfully, things picked up after that, especially in the afternoon games, where there were a few shootouts and games that went down to the wire before my Cowboys smashed the Giants Sunday night. Hopefully, Monday Night Football will deliver us an exciting and fantasy-relevant game to end the week.

After following all the players and games on Thursday and Sunday, here are my dynasty takeaways after week one.

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Week One Dynasty Takes

Surprising Roles

• A few young running backs whose dynasty value was low coming into this season appear to have new roles that will make their dynasty stock rise a lot. By measure of snap count and touches, especially in the first half, Kyren Williams appears ahead of Cam Akers. Williams played 65% of the snaps compared to Akers' 35%. Williams got the goal-line carries and scored twice, and he looked much quicker and explosive. In the last few weeks, beat reporter Jourdan Rodrigue hinted that coach McVay wanted to feature Williams more. We should have listened. If Williams keeps this lead role, his dynasty value will shoot way back up.
• The same can be said for Kenny Gainwell, who answered the question about who would lead the Eagle's backfield. Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch, and DeAndre Swift barely did a thing. Gainwell played 62% of the snaps compared to Swift's 29%. Swift touched the ball twice, while Gainwell touched the ball 18 times. Penny might return and mix things up again, but Gainwell has locked in his spot ahead of Swift.
• Joshua Kelley split carries 50/50 with Austin Ekeler with 16 carries each. Both scored touchdowns, too. The Chargers seem set on giving Kelley more touches this season to keep Ekeler healthy. Kelley looked powerful and explosive, too. He's come into his own in his fourth season and is an excellent thunder to Ekeler's lightning. I added Kelley off the waiver wire this offseason in two leagues and drafted him in a free-agent auction. He's a surprise pick-up who could see my starting lineups this season as a last flex spot, even if Ekeler stays healthy. 

Immediate Impact

• Three rookie receivers made immediate impacts: two first-round picks and one drafted in the 5th. Zay Flowers was the top-targeted Raven in the first game of his NFL career. He was targeted ten times and caught nine passes. He looked like the quickest guy on the field, shaking defensive backs and finding holes in the defense all day. Mark Andrews missed the game with an injury, so there were more targets to go around than usual. However, Flowers will likely be Lamar Jackson's favorite receiver ahead of Rashod Bateman and O'Dell Beckham Jr. What a great start to his rookie season.
• Jordan Addison did not play as many snaps (56%) as Flowers, but he was effective when in the game. He had four catches and a touchdown while playing 56% of the snaps. The Vikings did the same thing with Justin Jefferson in his rookie year. It did not take long to see that Jefferson was better than Bisi Johnson. It won't take long for them to see Addison is better than K.J. Osborn. Within weeks, his snap counts and targets will rise to the WR-2 level in this pass-first offense.
• My most drafted rookie, Puka Nacua, was the highest-scoring rookie in week one after catching ten balls on 15 targets for 119 yards. I've been beating his drum for the last few months, and he exceeded my expectations. What a start for a fifth-round pick, outplaying all of the receivers drafted ahead of him. Things will undoubtedly change once Cooper Kupp returns from his injury, but until then, he's moving into my starting lineups. I believed he'd be an immediate starter for the Rams but did not think he'd become an immediate starter in six of my nine dynasty teams.

Left Wanting

• As for the top two rookie running backs, they looked fantastic in their first game, but dynasty managers were left wanting more. Bijan looked terrific with every touch, especially the highlight reel touchdown when he made three guys miss. However, Tyler Allgeier was far more involved in the offense than dynasty managers wanted. Bijan had four more snaps than Allgeier, but Allgeier out-touched him, got two short-yardage touchdowns, and scored more fantasy points. Sadly, this is what the Falcons want to do with these two backs. When they are in a more negative game script, Bijan will be more involved in the passing game, but in a game like Sunday, when they had a lead for the whole game, dynasty managers should expect a pretty even split between them.
• Jahmyr Gibbs looked terrific on Thursday night. He looked like the fastest guy on the field, breaking tackles left and right, even at his size. David Montgomery, however, was far too involved in the offense. Dynasty managers expected this split backfield more than they did in Atlanta, but the first game was still frustrating to Gibbs' managers because they could see with their own eyes that Gibbs deserved more touches. Unfortunately for Gibbs, the Lions trust Montgomery as a pass protector, so game script can't help Gibbs. He's more than a gadget guy in their eyes, but his workload will be limited by Montgomery far more than his managers would like.

Fresh Start

• Two wide receivers got a fresh new start with their teams and came out on fire, earning massive target shares from their quarterbacks. Calvin Ridley earned a 34% target share from Trevor Lawrence and scored the Jaguars' first touchdown of the season. He ended the day with eight catches for 101 yards. That's quite a start for a guy who has not played a down in nearly two years after an injury and suspension. The Jaguars took a risk by signing the 28-year-old receiver, as did dynasty managers who held him on their rosters for two years. It is going to pay off for everyone who took that risk.
• Though his move to Las Vegas was not a high-profile move like Ridley's, Jakobi Meyers's first game with his new team was outstanding, earning a ton of targets from Jimmy Garoppolo. Meyers received a 38% target share, even more than Davante Adams. He caught nine passes on ten targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. Meyers has put the dynasty value of Hunter Renfrow to bed and is a sneaky player to try to acquire from managers who think this one game is a fluke. Coach McDaniels knew Meyers from his days in New England and has a significant role for him in his offense.

Goose Eggs

• It's terrible when you're in a close dynasty matchup and reliable players lay an egg. This week, I had four in my lineups that laid eggs. In several leagues, I had two of them on one roster. Tee Higgins played in a wind and rain storm where he received eight targets but did not have a single catch. Joe Burrow destroyed all Bengals' fantasy production by throwing for just 82 yards and leading the team to a total of six first downs. Drake London cannot blame the weather for his goose egg. He managed to play an entire game in a dome and received just one target from Desmond Ridder. The Falcons completed 15 passes for 115 yards. Ridder completed more passes to himself (1) than he did to his best receiver. Dallas Goedert, my most rostered tight end, who last season had 5.8 targets per game, had just one target in this game and gave me a goose egg in three of my nine leagues, including one with Higgins on my roster and one with London on my roster. Needless to say, I did not win those matchups. I'm sure there are better games ahead, but starting a fantasy season with goose eggs from my every-week starters was not fun.

Love-ly Start

• Jordan Love's debut was just what the doctor ordered. There's room for improvement with his accuracy and completion percentage, but he threw three touchdowns in his season debut and led the team to a 38-20 route over the Bears. Romeo Doubs was on a pitch count, playing about 50% of the snaps, but it did not stop him from scoring two touchdowns. Training camp reports continued to say that Doubs was Love's favorite target. It sure looked like it in the early preseason games before Doubs injured his hamstring. The quiet weeks following the injury kept Doubs a secret, but now the secret is out. Jayden Reed had a couple of big catches downfield, and Luke Musgrave had an average fantasy day for a tight end. The turf monster got Musgrave, or he would have had a touchdown to go with his 50 yards receiving. Without Christian Watson, who was out with an injury, Love, Doubs, and his two rookies kept the offense moving, though Aaron Jones was the engine of the offense in the running and passing game. The Packers' offense was one of the biggest question marks this offseason as dynasty managers had to project what they would look like with Love and his first and second-year pass catchers. If they lean on Aaron Jones and let Love pepper the young guys as they did on Sunday, dynasty managers have nothing to worry about.

Dominating Defenses

• The preseason was kind to the Steelers and Giants, whose starters had excellent drives at the start of games. Preseason hype was building around the hopes that their offenses would produce more as Kenny Pickett and Daniel Jones entered the second year in their systems. That hype came to a crashing halt on Sunday when the 49ers and Cowboys defenses dismantled both offenses. Both of these games were over by the end of the first quarter. It's just one game, so I don't want to read too much into it, but it was pretty discouraging to my hopes of each offense getting better. The Steelers threw a total of 12 touchdown passes last year, and the Giants 17. I thought both teams would regress to the mean this year and at least throw 25 touchdowns to make their wide receivers reliable in dynasty rosters. I'm not giving up on that hope, but this week has stirred up some doubt.

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Week One Waiver Wire

Kendrick Bourne

• As expected, the Patriots' offense looked much better, with Bill O'Bien directing the offense this season. They almost came back to beat the Eagles on Sunday, and Kendric Bourne was a big reason why. With Devante Parker injured Bourne took a more prominent role in the offense, receiving 11 targets compared to 7 for JuJu Smith-Schuster and scoring two touchdowns. He's the highest-scoring player on the waiver wire this week and should be added to every dynasty league. He has as good a chance as Parker or Smith-Schuster to lead the team in targets.

Justice Hill

• J.K. Dobbins tore his Achilles on Sunday, leaving a starting role to Gus Edwards or Justice Hill. Edwards is rostered in all my leagues, but Hill is available in some. Hill looked great in the preseason and was the goal-line back on Sunday, scoring two touchdowns. I expect Edwards and Hill to rotate, and I expect the Ravens to sign another back to their backfield for even more depth. Even though he'll face competition, Hill is a player I would like to add to a few of my rosters this week.

Josh Reynolds

• Until Jameson Williams returns from suspension, Reynolds is locked into a starting role in the Lions' offense. Knowing he had this role, I added him to several of my rosters this offseason. I have him on most of my rosters in 12-team leagues, but he's on the waiver wire in most of my 10-team leagues. He led the team in receiving yardage Thursday night. I don't expect that to happen often, but he will have big games throughout the season and be startable in deep leagues and shallow leagues during bye weeks.

Logan Thomas

• Thomas led the Commanders in targets on Sunday and did not carry an injury designation for the first time in about a year. He played 81% of the snaps compared to 37% for John Bates and 14% for Cole Turner. Thomas's lingering injury and lack of playing time in the preseason left the depth chart uncertain, especially after Turner had one great preseason game. After his involvement in week one, it's clear that Thomas has won the starting role, making him a player worth adding to dynasty rosters

Lil'Jordan Humphrey

• Humphrey only had two catches for 11 yards, but one was a touchdown. What was more surprising was his snap count. He was second among the wide receivers with 45 snaps compared to Marvin Mims' 19. Mims' snap count will increase as the season moves forward, and Jerry Jeudy will return soon, so I wouldn't try to add Humphrey in every league, but I'll keep an eye on his snap count for sure. Sean Peyton signed Humphrey when he was coaching the Saints, and he signed him again in Denver, so there's something he likes about Humphrey. That's enough to keep him on the dynasty radar.

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Week One Trades

There weren't any trades in my leagues this week, so I wanted to write about trades I made in my last rookie draft of the year instead. There are trades that I made for draft picks, so now that the picks have been made in my final rookie draft last weekend, I can better grade the trades.

Tee Higgins <=====> Jordan Addison and Tank Bigsby

• I accepted an offer to trade Tee Higgins for picks 1.4 and 1.10, which turned into Jordan Addison and Tank Bigsby. After Addison and Bigsby scored touchdowns this week and Higgins was shut out, I like my side of the trade, especially since I played the new Higgins manager. When offered the trade, I was pretty sure Addison would be the player that fell to me at 1.4. I was confident enough in Addison as a prospect that I almost would have made the trade straight up for 1.4 to buy a few years back, especially given the uncertainty with Higgin's contract after this year. Bigsby was one of the players who rose up my rookie rankings the most once the preseason games started, so I was pleased to add him at 1.10, making this a trade I am happy with from a dynasty perspective.

Keenan Allen <=====> Elijah Moore and Jayden Reed

• At the trade deadline last year, I sold Allen to a contender who won the championship partly because of Allen's production in the fantasy playoffs. In return, I received Elijah Moore and pick #20, where I selected Jayden Reed. I'm rebuilding a bit in this league, so I'm pleased to have the upside of two receivers instead of Allen, who is at the end of his career. I made this trade before Moore was traded to the Browns and before the Chargers drafted Quinten Johnston. Both developments made me like my side of the trade even more. I'll lose production this year but will get more back in the long run with Moore and Reed.

George Kittle <=====> David Njoku and Tank Dell

• The day before our rookie draft, I traded Kittle away for Njoku and pick #28, where I selected Tank Dell. It was a risky trade, not knowing who I would get to make up the difference between Kittle and Njoku in my dynasty rankings, but I was happy to select Dell, who was another one of my highest rookie risers after the preseason. He's no certainty, but I'm eager to see if he can become a reliable contributor to the Texans in the future. Kittle has been a difficult player to start every week, given his injuries and the boom-or-bust nature of his game. I thought Njoku could give me a steadier floor on an offense that would give him a more significant share of the targets. Kittle doubled up Njoku in week one targets, but the Browns played in a rainstorm. I'm less happy with this trade than the others, but it's a relief to have Kittle off my roster after dealing with him for so long. Hopefully, Tank Dell can help me like this trade more by midseason.

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