Mon Dec 16th 2024

Week Fifteen Review

The first week of the fantasy playoffs did not disappoint. After a disappointing start to the week in the low-scoring Thursday night game, dynasty managers were pleased with high-scoring affairs on Sunday, including the season's highest-scoring game. Dynasty managers saw their winning percentages go up and down throughout the day. I know mine did. It made for a great Sunday of football, watching and cheering on my dynasty teams. Here are some of my dynasty takeaways from week fifteen.

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Dynasty Impact

Oh My!

• The game of the year, Buffalo at Detroit, ended up one-sided as Buffalo jumped off to an early lead, never letting it go. Detroit's comeback efforts were excellent for fantasy managers as they kept the game close and made the Bills keep their foot on the gas. The 48 to 42 finish was the highest-scoring NFL game of the year, making many dynasty managers happy while others were disappointed. David Montgomery had his worst game of the season, and the Lions had their worst game running the ball this season, with only 35 yards rushing from their running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs still produced for fantasy managers because of his involvement in the passing game, with 83 receiving yards and a touchdown. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a season high in receptions and yards with 14 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown, carrying his dynasty managers in the playoffs. Sam LaPorta did the same with a season-high in receptions and yards, with seven for 111 yards. This game proved what the Lions' passing game is capable of if their running game is not working or they fall behind in games. However, it's not how they prefer to play. St. Brown and LaPorta have had quiet games this season when the Lions have dominated teams with their running game. Their dynasty managers got a pleasant surprise this week, given the gamescript. As for the Bills, Josh Allen ruled the day and distributed the ball to nine different pass catchers, none of which had a fantastic fantasy game except for his leading receiver, Ty Johnson, who no one started at running back. Amari Cooper was the only Bill who did not contribute in the win, finishing the game without a single catch. Khalil Shahir is the safest wide receiver play as we come to the end of this season, and it was good to see Dalton Kincaid back in action this week, though he's still quite unreliable.  The Bills have proven that they do not need a typical WR-1 to win games. Josh Allen can carry the team to victory, no matter who he has as targets. He followed his 55-point week with a modest 45 points this week in the playoffs. He's a league winner if he stays this hot.

Oh No!

• The Dolphins played terribly on Sunday, leaving dynasty managers with their players in a sad state. Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions and let the team to a measly 12 offensive points against the Texans. It was his worst fantasy game of the season, with just 5.8 points. He brought the entire offense down with him. Jaylen Waddle left the game with an injury, though he remained on the sidelines. He put up a goose egg for dynasty managers. Tyreek Hill did not get a catch until the third quarter and finished with just two catches on the day. Rookie Malik Washington was the team's leading receiver on the day, with just 53 yards receiving. De'Von Achane finished the game with just 76 total yards. At least he compiled seven catches, which helps in PPR leagues. Jonnu Smith was the only player to exceed expectations with nine catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. Some teams have figured out Mike McDaniels' offense and have found ways to completely neutralize the Dolphins. They were on a hot streak over the last four weeks but got stifled this week, as they have many times this season. This season, their losses include games where they scored 10, 3, 12, 10, 17, and 12 points. This was another such week, and dynasty managers are lucky to have advanced in the playoffs if they had Dolphins in their lineups.

Ouch!

• The most notable injuries affecting dynasty teams in the playoffs were Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, Alvin Kamara, and Nick Chubb. Mahomes and Smith still have a chance to start next week, but they could also need a week or more off, giving their backups Carson Wentz and Sam Howell starting roles. With very few exceptions, backup quarterbacks will make their entire offenses less productive, bringing down the floor and ceiling of every fantasy starter on their teams. That's a brutal reality for dynasty teams still in the playoffs with Chiefs and Seahawks on their rosters. Alvin Kamara injured his groin, making him questionable in the fantasy playoffs and giving Kendre Miller a chance to start. That's a big disappointment for dynasty managers who enjoyed the ride this year with Kamara, who played so well. Nick Chubb broke his foot and will miss the remainder of the season, allowing Jerome Ford to be a fantasy-relevant player in the playoffs. Ford has been productive and worth starting as an RB-2 or flex in lineups when given the lead role. He will be so again to end this season, so that's a pleasant surprise for his managers.

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Stock Up

Rico Dowdle

• Dowdle has a season-high in carries and yards on Sunday, with 25 carries for 149 yards. He's proving he can carry the load as Dallas's starter next season. He's averaging five yards per carry this season. When given twelve or more carries a game this season, he's averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game. He's risen up my dynasty rankings in recent weeks as the Cowboys have entrusted him with more touches, and if the Cowboys do not draft a running back or add a free agent next year, he'll rise even more.

Rashod Bateman

• Matt Harmon of Reception Perception talked up Bateman this week and nailed his prediction. He scored twice on Sunday and had the best fantasy day of his season with 21 points. He won't fly up my rankings because of one great game, but he's proven he can be a depth piece on dynasty rosters and has a chance to become more than that. He was one of my favorite players in his draft class, so I drafted him a lot. He's had several games like this in his career but has battled injuries and some inconsistencies overall. Whereas Zay Flowers hit the ground running in his rookie year. Bateman is still second fiddle to Flowers, but he has an opportunity to see his role grow. The Ravens signed him to a new contract this year, so they want to see his role grow in the offense, too.

Quentin Johnston

• Staying with the theme of wide receivers who looked like busts but have improved this season, Johnston has steadily climbed my dynasty rankings this season. He was Justin Herbert's top target on Sunday, catching five of ten targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. He's caught eight touchdowns this season. He still makes mistakes and drops balls, but he's improved greatly this season and has put to bed the thought that he would be benched or that Josh Palmer would overtake him. Wide receivers aren't bound to their first-year tape and narrative. They can improve as Bateman and Johnston have.

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Stock Down

Tank Dell

• I hate to drop a player I used to love so much, but I have to move Dell down my rankings. He only has two touchdown catches this season and has not scored since week eight. He's had four or fewer targets in 6 of the 13 games he's played this season. Even when Nico Collins missed time, Dell did not produce like he did in his rookie season. I don't think that he's changed since being injured last year. The offense has changed, and Nico Collins has become far more of the focal point of the passing game than I expected. Plus, C.J. Stroud has taken a significant step back this season.

Will Levis

• Levis strung together a few good games from weeks 10 to 13, but in the last two weeks, he has fallen back to his old ways. Sunday was the worst he's played all season, leading to his benching as Mason Rudolph replaced him. Sunday, he threw 12 passes, and 3 of them were to the other team, including a pick-six. It was his fourth pick-six of the season and his 12th interception. It's the second time this season he finished with negative fantasy points. The Titans will look for a quarterback in the draft or in free agency to replace him next season. Levis is on his way to becoming a career backup.

Anthony Richardson

• Richardson's passing woes continued on Sunday when he completed only 45% of his passes. It's the 8th time this season when his completion percentage was 50% or less. An offense cannot be built around a passer who is that inaccurate. He can play well enough and produce for dynasty managers in games they are leading, but once they fall behind and have to pass, the game is over, as it was this Sunday against the Broncos.

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Young Guns

James Cook

• Cook looked fantastic with his limited touches on Sunday. He carried the ball 14 times for 105 yards and two touchdowns. That's 7.5 yards per carry. His one catch went for 28 yards, too. He only played 41% of the snaps, as Ray Davis and Ty Johnson cut into his workload, but he made the most of them. It's clear that he has burst, which Davis does not have, and he has held off Davis for the leading role, which I did not think he could do. I have to admit that I was wrong about Cook.

Brian Thomas Jr.

• It would be fair to argue that Thomas is the best wide receiver in this rookie class. I deeply regret passing on him a few times in rookie drafts this year. Sunday, he had a season-high in targets, catches, and fantasy points. He turned 14 targets into ten catches for 105 yards, two touchdowns, and 27 fantasy points. He's producing more than Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison, even with a backup quarterback. He's a top ten scoring wide receiver on the season in his rookie season. He'll only improve from here as the team and quarterback play improve. Dynasty managers love what they have in Thomas.

Ladd McConkey

• McConkey just gets open. He's had five or more catches in 9 of the 13 games he's played this season. He averages 67 yards receiving per game. Sunday, he had five catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. He and Quentin Johnston have become a powerful one-two punch in the Chargers' passing game. Since the Chargers are struggling to run the ball, McConkey could play a big role at the end of the season for dynasty teams in the playoffs.

Old-Man Strength

Mike Evans

• Evans wants to keep his consecutive 1000 yards receiving steak alive, and he improved his chances with a 159-yard day while scoring two touchdowns. He needs just 84 yards per game to keep the streak alive. He's such a huge target, and he's not slowed down, even at his age. His touchdowns on Sunday were 35 and 57 yards. He made the defensive backs look like kids trying to catch and tackle him. He's a first-ballot hall of famer, and he's been a staple in starting dynasty lineups for ten years.

Lamar Jackson

• Jackson most certainly arrived dynasty managers into the next round of the playoffs after throwing five touchdown passes on Sunday. This was the most accurate passing day I remember seeing from Jackson. He only threw four incompletions. What's wild about that is that he was throwing the ball deep downfield, too. He had 11.6 yards per completion, and his touchdowns were from 13, 49,20, 21, and 27 yards out. Jackson is playing the best football of his career right now.

Terry McLaurin

• McLaurin is having the best year of his career, too. Sunday was the fourth time this season that McLaurin has scored two touchdowns in a game. He has 11 touchdown catches this season, the most since his rookie season when he had 7. He's been so fun to watch this season as he's become the focal point of the Commanders' passing game. He's back to being Scary Terry after a few mediocre years.

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Waiver Watch

Stone Smartt

• Smartt has played well for the last two weeks since Will Dissly was injured. Justin Herbert is not shy in targeting him. He has three targets after Dissly was injured last week, and this week, he had six targets in the starting role. This was my first week watching him play, and I liked what I saw. He looked tall and athletic, and he had great hands. If Dissly's injury lingers, Smartt could give the Chargers reason to let Smartt compete for a starting role next year.

Brenton Strange

• Evan Engram was lost for the season last week with a clavicle injury, and Strange stepped right into his role, earning 11 catches for 73 yards on Sunday. He could be a viable starter in the fantasy playoffs for tight-end needy teams. He's not talented enough to surpass Engram and the Jaguars' future starter, but he could help a team this season or become a depth piece on dynasty rosters.

Craig Reynolds

• News broke late today that David Montgomery injured his MCL and may miss the rest of the season. If that's the case, Reynolds is the next man up in Detroit. While Jahmyr Gibbs will carry the biggest workload for the rest of the season, the Lions will need to spell him from time to time, and Reynolds is who they will look to do it. He's only worth adding in the deepest leagues, but I wanted to mention him here.

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My Teams

• Since we're in the playoffs, I wanted to share how my teams are doing. Five of my dynasty teams are in the playoffs, and two earned bye weeks, so I got to watch the other teams battle it out this week in those leagues. One of my teams lost this week, and two come down to Monday night. I should certainly win one, as I only need ten points from Sam Darnold, Jordan Addison, and the Vikings' defense. The other match is a little tighter. I am behind by ten in that league, but I have Justin Jefferson and Sincere McCormick while my opponent has Rome Odunze. It should make for a fun Sunday night. I plan to play in the semifinals in four of my dynasty leagues.

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