Tue Jan 3rd 2023

Championship Week Review

By the time this posts, fantasy trophies and payouts will be awarded. I hope you did better than I did since I failed to win a dynasty league for the second year in a row. It was a rough championship week full of surprises, which were mostly unwelcomed by dynasty managers. Still, the last seventeen weeks have been a blast, and I enjoyed every minute of watching football and following my dynasty teams. Before switching to offseason mode and rookie scouting season, I present a few final thoughts on championship week from a dynasty perspective.

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Championship Week Observations

Quarterback Shuffle

• The craziest thing leading up to championship week was the shuffling of quarterbacks. The biggest news was that Derek Carr was finally shown the bench and left the team, leaving Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Darren Waller managers with Jarrett Stidham to move the offense. To their great pleasure, he played better than Carr in recent weeks. The same cannot be said for some of the other teams whose quarterback situation got shaken up leading into championship week. The Cardinals started David Blough instead of Trace McSorely after Colt McCoy's concussion symptoms returned. The Eagles turned again to Gardner Minshew, who laid an egg compared to last week against the Cowboys. Carson Wentz started his first game after coming in to releive Taylor Heinicke last week and showed no improvement. Mike White returned for the Jets but had his worst game of the year. Tyler Huntley started again for Lamar Jackson and could not move the offense. Nick Foles was still named the starter after his terrible first start of the season last week, but he got injured, so Sam Elinger completed the game. Teddy Bridgewater started with Tua Tagovailoa in the concussion protocol, but he broke his finger, and Sklyer Thompson had to come into play for him. Josh Dodds started for the Titans and at least looked better than Malik Willis. Still, every quarterback shuffled this week brought down their teams' fantasy production, except for Jarrett Stidham, making championship week a beat town for dynasty managers. As I wrote about last week, I expect a massive shuffle in the quarterback market this offseason, with more than 33% of teams with new starting quarterbacks next year. Too bad we had to get an early taste on championship week.

Championship Duds

• Sadly, many players that carried dynasty teams into championship week were duds this week when it counted the most. Depending on how well Joe Mixon plays Monday night, I scored the lowest or second lowest points of the season in my lone Super Bowl matchup. I'm sitting at 74 points because I had to start Gardner Minshew with Lamar Jackson injured and Carr benched, and the players I rode to the Super Bowl only scored one touchdown between them. Tyreek Hill scored one touchdown, but Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, Juju Smith-Schuster, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, and Dalvin Cook did not. Managers riding these players into their championships were disappointed, as were the managers of Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce, Garrett Wilson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jaylen Waddle, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and more. It was a tough week for a lot of the top-scoring players, making for a lot of surprises in Super Bowl matchups.

Bummer Blowouts

• Fantasy production by a few teams was affected drastically because of early blowouts by teams that did not need to win. Unlike Tennessee, who benched many of their starters since the Thursday night game did not matter for their playoff picture, the Jacksonville Jaguars stated all week that they planned to play all of their starters this week even though the game had no playoff implications. They were true to their word; only they jumped out to such an early lead over the Texans that they throttled down and took out most of their offensive starters. As a result, they all underperformed this week except for Travis Etienne, who thankfully racked up 21.5 fantasy points after scoring on a 62-yard touchdown run before he was pulled from the game. It was not as bad, but the Giants and Lions stepped off the gas in their games after jumping out to big leads. Only Daniel Jones and Jamaal Williams left their dynasty managers pleased on championship week. There was a lot left on the bone for the rest of the Giants' and Lions' players, but they didn't have to be as aggressive as usual this week, much to the frustration of their dynasty managers.

Not Taking Command

• Carson Wentz was given command over the Commanders for the first time in weeks and promptly did nothing to prove that the team does not need a new quarterback next year. Were it not for a quarterback sneak for a touchdown; he would have scored just 1.85 fantasy points this week after throwing three interceptions. He's thrown for a total of 266 yards in his six quarters of play, crushing the production of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, who should be one of the best young receiving duos in the NFL. Wentz's starting days are over in the NFL, and the Commanders will keep him as their backup next season or pay the price for cutting him. The Commanders should have turned to Sam Howell much earlier in the season but stubbornly thought they could make the playoffs with Wentz of Heinicke. That was a huge mistake. Howell better start in week eighteen since they were finally eliminated from the playoff after Wentz's home loss to the Browns on Sunday.

KC Confusion

• After nearly an entire season of consistent production as Patrick Mahomes' second-highest target, Juju Smith-Schuster has been over-looked the last two weeks, and I'm wondering if he's going to be on the team next year if some of the surrounding players get more involved at the end of this season as they have. As Jerick McKinnon has gotten more involved in the offense, especially in the passing game, and younger players like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney get more involved, Juju could be the last man out. Juju's contract expires at the end of the year, making him one of the many middle-tier wide receivers that will fight for relevant roles in an offense next year. There were many times this season that I thought he would earn a new contract with the Chiefs, which would be best for his dynasty value. If things tend as they have the last two weeks, I will lose confidence in him as a valuable dynasty asset, even at his young age. The Chiefs desire to create a role for the younger player they traded for this year, Toney, and drafted last year, Moore.

Better Late Than Never

• If dynasty managers somehow snuck into the Super Bowl with Mike Evans on their rosters after his poor production the last few weeks, they had a Super-Bowl winning performance this week. Evans scored the most fantasy points he's ever scored in his incredibly productive career. He had 43.7 half-PPR points after receiving three touchdowns on ten catches for 207 yards receiving. I lost by two points last week in the only league with Evans on my roster. Where was this last week when I needed it? I heard the CBS Fantasy Football podcast give Mike Evans career stats against Carolina and predicted a massive game this week, especially with Carolina missing pieces on their secondary to injury. At least I put this knowledge to use this week in a Draft Kings lineup and won some money, but I'd rather have been playing for the prize money in my league. If he was on your Super Bowl roster this week, you undoubtedly took home the prize. He was the star of the week by far. Tampa Bay was one of the many teams I predict would have a new quarterback next year, which makes Evans' dynasty value a bit more precarious. Still, he's produced every year and is one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers in NFL history. I don't see why he won't do it again next year, no matter who his quarterback is. 

Show Me "Moore"

• I'll admit when I am wrong, and I've been wrong on D.J. Moore after the last few weeks of the season when he and Sam Darnold found the same connection they had at the start of last season. Darnold has not done enough to make me think the Panthers will re-sign him after his contract end this season, but he's shown what a quarterback that is not afraid to throw the ball deep can do to unleash Moore's ability. Tua Tagovailoa is the only starting quarterback with more yards per attempt than Darnold. Darnold averages 8.6 yards per attempt this year, and his willingness to throw the ball downfield makes me reconsider Moore's dynasty value. In games when Moore has been healthy and playing with Darnold, he has averaged 25.6, 14.6, 16.6, and 19.5 yards per catch and has scored a touchdown in every game. Hopefully, the new coaching staff will deploy Moore the same way and draft or sign a quarterback willing to throw the ball deep. If they do, I'll recant my previous takes on D.J. Moore.

Show Me The Money

• I'll admit when I am wrong, but I will also boast a bit when I'm right. Daniel Jones is one of the players I talked about most leading into this season, believing coach Daboll would change the Giants' offense for the better and make Jones a more consistent quarterback. He's not considered a starter in one-quarterback leagues, but he really should be. He was the 11th-ranked quarterback headed into Sunday, and after his 38-point game, he'll move up ahead of Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, and Justin Fields. He gets a lot of his fantasy points on the ground, and after Sunday's two touchdowns running is fifth in the league in quarterback rushing yards with 708 and tied for third in rushing touchdowns with seven, the same number as Josh Allen. Daboll won't make Jones into Josh Allen as he did in Buffalo, but he can make a quarterback much better. The Giants did not re-sign Jones before this season started, but they'll have to pay him now that he's led the team to the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2016. 

"Heeling" Up Well

• As always, I like to throw in a pun. Cam Akers is "heeling" up well after his Achilles Heel injury. He's looked like a superstar giving the Rams confidence to keep him as their starter when he should return even stronger next year. This was the year of the Achilles test, with D'Onta Foreman, James Robinson, and Cam Akers trying to prove running backs can come back from such a devastating injury. Foreman has had longer to heal but has had the best year of his career. Robinson came back the fastest of the three of them, and he looked great to start the season but got traded to the Jets, where he's been surpassed on the depth chart. Akers struggled at the start of the season and got in the doghouse with the team, but how has come back to favor with the team enough to earn more than 18 touches per game over the last five weeks while compiling 97 total yards per game and more than one touchdown per game. He's had 118 and 123 yards rushing the previous two weeks and has looked fantastic. Managers that were patient with him will have a solid RB-2 next year, which is way more than expected a year ago, let alone at the start of this season.

A Final Sign Of Hope

• The Broncos chose Russell Wilson over Nathaniel Hackett this week, firing Hackett and stating their faith in Wilson. Russell had one of his best games of the year, scoring twice on the ground and once through the air. One game does not make a trend, but at least there was some sign of life and fight as the Broncos battled the Chiefs to the end, losing by just three points. From a dynasty perspective, it's significant that the Broncos chose Russell over Hackett. Because of their financial commitment, they had to, but it was still a tiny sign of faith. Whether sincere or contrived, several players spoke out in Wilson's defense this week and played a bit harder on Sunday. If Wilson is going to revive his dynasty value and boost the value of the players around him, he needs to become a better teammate and less of a Prima donna. I named my dog after Russell Wilson, and this year he's made me regret it, and it's less about his quality of play and more about his attitude. Hopefully, he can regain the locker room and act like he did when he was a third-round draft pick that had to prove himself in Seattle. If he can't do that, the Broncos and all their dynasty assets will continue to struggle.

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