Tue Dec 28th 2021

2021 Week Sixteen Review

In week sixteen in the NFL was a blur. It's always fun to watch football and follow dynasty teams during the week of Christmas. Hopefully, you enjoyed your friends and family and your fantasy football experience over the weekend. I'm sorry to say that I only enjoyed one of the two. My time with family was fantastic, but my fantasy experience was terrible.

Sadly, I did not make the Super Bowl in any of my ten leagues this year. I can't remember the last time that happened. Last season I won three Super Bowls, and I'm not even playing in one this season. This week it's been harder than usual to remind myself that it's a joy to watch football, but I'm doing my best to remember the fun I had this season and shift my attention to the offseason development of my teams. Honestly, it's easier said than done.

That said, after following all of the games this week, here are some of my thoughts on teams, players, and situations that affect dynasty rosters.

Ten Observations From Week Sixteen

Working But Not Working

• The Cardinals are on a three-game losing streak, but dynasty managers are not feeling the effects of a struggling offense during those games, except in the passing game. Kyler Murray is still producing for his managers but primarily based on what he's doing with his legs. James Conner and, this week, Chase Edmonds is also producing for dynasty managers, but primarily because of how they're producing in the passing game. Conner had a nine-catch game two weeks ago, and Edmonds had an eight-catch game on Sunday. Even though Murray has been checking down passes to his running backs and tight end, he's had his lowest completion percentage of the season during this losing streak with 65%, 56%, and 62%. Only the Cardinal's receivers feel the effects of Murray's struggles in the passing game. Somehow the offense is not working, but it's still working for fantasy managers.

Record Performance

• Joe Burrow had the game of his life, throwing for 525 yards, the fourth most in the history of the NFL, and the Bengals pass-catchers dismantled the depleted Baltimore secondary. Burrow's record-setting day carried dynasty managers to victory along with dynasty managers with shares of this offense. This blow-up week instills immense hope for dynasty managers. The future is incredibly bright for the Bengals' offense with Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals offense is young, under contract, and every player's dynasty value has increased as this season progressed. I currently have Burrow (7), Mixon (8), Chase (1), and Higgins (11) all ranked among the top twelve in their position. I'm not sure I ever had four players on one team, all in the top twelve before. The Bengals are poised to become the most productive fantasy offense since the greatest show on turf days with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce, especially if they finally get Mixon involved in the passing game as they did on Sunday.

The Great Unknown

• The Jacksonville Jaguars' roster and depth chart are the most uncertain ones in the league. This offseason will reveal a lot about the future dynasty value of all of their players. Trevor Lawrence is the only player on their roster whose dynasty value is not in the balance based on what they do this offseason. The first step in the process is hiring a new head coach. The rest o the dominos will fall from there. James Robinson, unfortunately, tore his Achilles on Sunday, which means he will not be ready to return until at least midway into next season if not much later. Travis Etienne now has an open door to take hold of the starting running back position next season but will not play for the coach that drafted him. The Jag's wide receiver corps has been a mess this season, and I doubt any clarity will come until we can witness the new offense next season. D.J. Chark will likely not sign with the team. Marvin Jones is under contract but could easily get cut. Laviska Shenault has two years remaining on his rookie contract. Laquon Treadwell, of all people, has played the best over the last five weeks, forcing the Jaguars to think about signing him to a new deal after his resurrected career. There's a buy-low opportunity with all of these dynasty players, but I think I prefer to wait it out or even put them on the trading block for future picks. Picks are about as likely to hit or miss as these players are in Jacksonville.

"Ram-ifications"

• Last week, the Rams activated Cam Akers and said they think he'll be ready to play for them in the playoffs. If he returns that quickly from an Achilles injury, I would be amazed, but that's what they're saying for now. Sony Michel has played ahead of Darrell Henderson the last few weeks, even after Henderson returned from his injury. Sony has played well, averaging 15 fantasy points per game over the previous four weeks. Michel is clearly the best player to start in fantasy lineups next week in the fantasy Super Bowl, but the questions arise when considering the dynasty value of the Rams' backfield. D'Onta Foreman has given hope to running backs with Achilles surgery, though he's had years to recover. I'd be very surprised to see Akers in the playoffs, but his dynasty value will rise again quickly if we do. The Rams will have an opportunity to re-sign Michel, whose 2022 contract year was voided when he was traded to the Rams, as I understand it. The Michel trade clearly shows that the Rams don't believe Henderson can carry a full workload without getting injured, which has proven true this year and this week, even. The dynasty value of this backfield hangs in the balance, and dynasty managers have to decide which players they should buy or sell. I saw Akers traded for a second-round pick in one of my leagues, though it is pick #13. I was offered Henderson and Michel for Brandin Cooks, but I declined because of the uncertainty in the future of their backfield.

Breaking The "Rhules"

• Matt Rhule started his second season in Carolina looking like he would turn the franchise around like he did college programs in the NCAA after starting 3-0 this year. However, Carolina's five-game losing streak to end the season has him firmly in the hot seat. Everything Rhule is doing now is not working, and it's causing a lot of confusion and uncertainty on the team and for dynasty managers with Panthers on their squad. Rhule fired Joe Brady, their offensive coordinator, he's rotated his quarterbacks, and this week he put Sam Darnold back on the field. Since Christian McCaffrey's injury and their first loss in week four, the dynasty value of every Panther has steadily fallen under Rhule's leadership. McCaffrey's return next season will provide a spark to the whole offense, but the Panthers need a new quarterback to bring D.J. Moore's value back up to the top-20 conversation. I currently have Moore ranked #24 in my dynasty wide receiver rankings. Robby Anderson has fallen to #58. Deshaun Watson would be a welcomed addition this offseason, and fans nearest Clemson may be among the most forgiving of his indiscretions.

Giant Promise

• This week the Giants made clear that head coach Joe Judge and quarterback Daniel Jones will be back with the team next year even though neither lived up to expectations this season. The Giants will have a hard time pointing to anything positive or moving in the right direction this season. They have a host of injuries to point to as excuses, including Daniel Jones, but the excuses will be just that if they can not win more games next season. The Giants have not extended Jones' contract, and they're glad that they did not after he showed little improvement this year, even though the team surrounded him with weapons in the passing game. Kenny Golladay, their prized free-agent signing, and Kadarius Toney, their first-round draft pick, did nothing but make the Giants' management look incompetent. Ironically, these signings are part of why the Giants' top brass plan to bring back Judge and Jones. They don't want to admit their defeat. As bad as it looked this year, I believe they can improve next season. I do think their rash of injuries was insurmountable this year. If Barkley, Golladay, Toney, and Jones are all healthy at the same time, there is room for improvement for the team and all the players from a fantasy perspective. Each of these four players will see a rise in their dynasty value once next season gets underway.

Rookie Wall

• After an incredible start to the season, Najee Harris appears to have hit the rookie wall. He's not played terribly, but he's not producing like he did at the start of the season, which is what his managers grew to expect. From week two to eleven, Najee averaged 17.5 points per game. Over the last six games, he's averaged 12.3 points per game, and four out of the previous five weeks he's had the lowest fantasy points of his season since week two. I still love Najee, and I have him ranked as my #4 dynasty running back, but his play has leveled out. Even so, he's the fifth-highest scoring fantasy running back coming into week sixteen. Ben Roethlisberger has hit the age wall, so he's not helping the offense right now. That's a significant factor in Najee's production. Big Ben is playing so badly that I don't believe Najee's dynasty value will change much next year, no matter who they bring to be their starter. However, if they stick with Mason Rudolph, his dynasty value will go down. I just don't believe that's what the Steelers will do.

"Milling" Around

• Davis Mills has led the Texans to back-to-back wins and is playing well enough to force the Texans to think twice about drafting a quarterback in the first round. He's thrown four touchdowns over the last two weeks and thrown for 463 yards, and this Sunday, he did it without Brandin Cooks. Mills was a top prospect coming out of high school, so he has a pedigree stronger than his third-round draft capital. The Texans now have to think about all of their options this offseason. Their recent wins have moved them up to drafting third, currently, with the Jaguars and Lions ahead of them and the Jets behind them. The Jets and Jaguars drafted their quarterbacks of the future last year, so they will not look to draft a quarterback, though a team may trade up with them to do so. Either way, I think the Texans will have a shot to draft a top-two quarterback in this year's draft. In addition, they still have Deshaun Watson as trade bait for a quarterback and future picks. With all that on their side, I still think they will draft or trade for a quarterback, but Mills is at least making them think twice and consider other options. He has two more weeks to make the decision even harder on them. The best thing he can do is win more games so that the Texan's first-round pick is further up the board. San Francisco and Tennessee, his next two opponents, will make things a little tougher on him, though.

Quarterback Problems

• Many players whose dynasty value is descending because they don't have the quarterbacks they need to unlock their talent. I'm thinking particularly about the Broncos and the Washington Football Team. I already mentioned the Panthers and Steelers, who also need upgrades. Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Javonte Williams deserve a new quarterback next year. Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas do as well. Until they get new quarterbacks, their dynasty value is limited. Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, and Taylor Heinicke are good players and competent backups in the NFL, but they've proven this year that they need to be replaced. Both teams knew they needed quarterback help last year when they signed Bridgewater and Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency. They're going to have to do so again this offseason, too. Washington may have a draft pick high enough to draft a quarterback, but Denver will likely have to go the free agency or trade route. Whatever these teams do this offseason, the dynasty value of their pass catchers should increase. I would try to buy-low on McLaurin, Jeudy, Sutton, and Fant right now. Test the waters and see if their managers have lost hope in them after they underperformed this season. 

Anyone's Game

• Don't you hate seeing the lower-ranked seed beat a better team in the fantasy playoffs? It happens all the time, which is why many fantasy platforms are creating new systems to get the best teams in the playoffs or allow the best teams to advance in the playoffs. The most common change is to award the highest-scoring team left out of the playoffs by record into the 6th seed of the playoffs. Other leagues use all-play records and winning percentages to award playoff seeds. Some leagues don't play head to head in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but only the top two scoring teams advance in each other the first two rounds. I love these changes and hope to implement more leagues that I commish. That said, if we're trying to make the dynasty leagues more like the NFL, head to head is the best way to go. I can already tell that this year's NFL playoffs will be wild. Lower seeded teams are going to upset higher-seeded teams. I seriously doubt if both #1 seeds will advance to the Super Bowl. We've already had some of the best teams lay an egg this season, and we're seeing teams peak here at the end of the season after struggling early in the season. Let alone the COVID factor that could mess with everything. It will be a fun post-season, and fantasy games during the NFL playoffs will be harder and harder to predict. It will be fun!

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Top 2021 Waiver Wire Additions

Every year there are a few players added off the waiver wire that help dynasty teams win games or championships.  Sometimes these players become valuable dynasty players that stay on dynasty rosters for years to come. This year was not the best season to find dynasty gems off the waiver wire, but there were a few players that I think dynasty managers will be pleased to have on their rosters for years to come. 

This week I re-read all of the weekly waiver wire articles I wrote to see which players made the most impact this season and which hold the most hope for years to come. Here are the players I think dynasty managers were happiest to steal off the wire this season.

Devonta Freeman

• Freeman was a free agent in the NFL and in dynasty leagues to start the season but became a reliable starter for dynasty teams after signing with the Ravens and becoming the lead back by the end of the season. He was the most productive player found on the waiver wire in my leagues this season and was in starting lineups this week in many playoff games. While he was the best player picked up this season, his dynasty value is very uncertain. He'll likely not be with the Ravens next season after J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, both under contracts with the team next season, return from their injuries. Freeman proved enough this season to get added to an NFL roster this offseason instead of being a free agent to start the season as he was this season, but he won't have a leading role with a team unless players in front of him get injured as they did last year. He'll get signed by a team this offseason but only as a backup.

Kendrick Bourne

• Bourne was the 28th highest scoring fantasy wide receiver headed into week sixteen, but he was tough to trust in dynasty lineups. He's second on the team in wide-receiver snaps and targets, but that only amounted to 60 targets and 51% of the Patriots' snaps. That said, he held off N'Keal Harry for the WR-2 role all season and has time to grow in the offense and build chemistry with his rookie quarterback, Mac Jones. He's signed through the 2023 season, so he'll have time to improve on his 28th-ranked (so far) season. In the future, Bourne will be a player worth starting in the flex position during bye weeks or on dynasty rosters impacted by injuries.

K.J. Osborn

• Managers added Osborn to dynasty rosters after it became clear that the Vikings' base offense this season was eleven personnel, and Osborn was the team's slot receiver in those sets. Osborn has played 65% of the snaps in Minnesota this season, and he's established a permanent role with the team. What's more is that he becomes the WR-2 on the team when Adam Thielen is injured, which is the case more often in recent years as Thielen continues to age. In the future, dynasty managers could start Osborn in a pinch and start him comfortably if or when Thielen is out with an injury.

Laquon Treadwell

• Treadwell is a free agent at the end of the season, but he's played well enough this year to re-sign with the Jaguars or get picked up by another team in free agency. He's yet to score a touchdown, but he's become the most productive wide receiver for Jacksonville over the last five weeks, averaging eight fantasy points per game in that span. As I already said above, the entire Jaguars roster is one of the most uncertain in the NFL, but Treadwell's dynasty value has risen from the dead this season, giving dynasty managers a glimmer of hope again five years after he was drafted in the first round of rookie drafts.

Tyler Conklin

• I believe Conklin played well enough this season to challenge Irv Smith for the starting tight end position next year. We'll soon find out whether the Vikings believe he has too. I started Conklin on my teams several times this season. He never became an every-week starter but filled in when I needed him, and he's currently the 16th highest scoring tight end on the season. Conklin is in the last year of his contract, while Irv Smith has one year left on his rookie deal. If Conklin is signed by the Vikings this offseason, he's a player worth keeping on dynasty rosters, but I'd likely drop him if he signs with another team. I think the Vikings will re-sign him, though.

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