Wed Dec 22nd 2021

2021 Week Fifteen Review

Week fifteen in the NFL, the first week of playoffs in fantasy leagues, was a roller coaster of emotions. As of this moment, on Monday afternoon, the ride is not over because there are still four more games to be played. Thus, most fantasy matchups are still in the air.

I have five teams in the fantasy playoffs, and I could win or lose any of them on Monday and Tuesday night. Dynasty Freeks, like you and me, will follow our teams to the bitter end of this week, even while two COVID-ridden teams play at the same time Tuesday night.

The NFL's schedule and my holiday schedule force me to stay on my usual writing and podcasting schedule, which means I'm writing today about my thoughts on the Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday games.

Ten Observations From Week Fifteen

Scheduling Chaos

• I can't talk about week fifteen without speaking about the chaos in scheduling due to COVID. Three games were rescheduled on the first weekend, with games scheduled for Saturday and no bye weeks. As a result, sixteen games were played on five days of the week over a span of six days. In one sense, these changes made for a wonderful week for dynasty managers because who doesn't want more football. In another sense, however, this week was an emotional roller coaster for dynasty managers in the playoffs because scoreboard watching was painful. Because the games were spread out over six days, managers could watch their teams jump out to giant leads or fall hopelessly behind in their playoff matchups. For instance, I fell hopelessly behind a team that started Travis Kelce after his 36 point game on Thursday night. I got back in contention Saturday night after Jonathan Taylor's 23-point outing. The ups and downs of the start of this week continued on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. This week provided too many data points, making scoreboard watching a rollercoaster experience. It was a nice ride if you ended up winning a playoff matchup and a terrible ride if you did not.

Fast Start

• Thursday night's highly anticipated high-scoring game delivered, getting many fantasy teams off to a great start to the week. As I mentioned above, Travis Kelce scored 36 fantasy points. Since week one, Patrick Mahomes had the best fantasy game with 30 points, rewarding playoff teams that kept starting him even though he's provided mediocre production for most of the season. Tyreek Hill scored 27 fantasy points for his managers, too. Clyde Edwards-Hellaire was the only dud for Kansas City. Justin Herbert's day could have been so much better had the Chargers not repeatedly failed on 4th-down goal-line attempts and players dropping touchdown passes right in their hands. Though they missed out on these opportunities, Herbert, Kennan Allen, and Austin Ekeler did enough to please their dynasty managers but left them frustrated by what could have been game-winning performances like the Chiefs had. Mike Williams' dynasty stock has fallen every week since week five after having one of the sharpest rises at the start of the season. This week, he was the Chargers' dud after dropping passes, including touchdown passes. Thursday night was the start of the week-fifteen roller coaster.

Hear Them Roar

• Detroit laid the wood to the Arizona Cardinals with players almost no one was starting in the playoff matchups. Craig Reynolds, who no dynasty manager heard of before last week, was the leading rusher in the NFL on Sunday with 112 yards on the ground. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds each had a touchdown catch and produced their highest fantasy points of the season. St. Brown, one of my most touted players before rookie drafts this season, took time to break out, but he officially has to end this season. I'm glad I drafted him in so many leagues and traded Darnell Mooney for him during one rookie draft. Josh Reynolds is also on many of my teams because I added him once Detroit picked him up. I even started him in one playoff matchup this week. Since week eleven, Reynolds has had 36 more snaps and 11 more targets than Kaliff Raymond. He's established himself as the clear WR-2 in Detroit and has every chance to stay there. Detroit waived Tyrell Williams a few weeks ago, indicating that they like what they have in Reynolds. Quintez Cephus looked good to start the season but has not played since being injured in week five. Cephus and St. Brown are the only receivers in Detroit that have contracts beyond this season, but I believe Reynolds will sign a modest contract with the team this offseason.

The Duke Is Back

• COVID struck the Miami running back room last week while they were on a bye week, but Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed were cleared to play this Sunday. However, Duke Johnson stole the show on Sunday, carrying the Dolphins to their sixth straight win with his 127 yards of offense and two touchdowns. Gaskin played and saw touches in the game, but Johnson produced and ended the day with 15 more snaps and 13 more touches. Johnson bounced from team to team this year, landing on several practice squads when starters got injured. Surprises like this happen pretty often late in the season when a running back with fresh legs gets added to a team. He did look fresh, and his excellent plays on Sunday saved the Dolphins from an upset home loss to the Jets. It's hard to predict if the Dolphins will go with the hot-hand approach and give Johnson the leading role as they fight for a playoff berth, but we do know that they signed him to their official roster this week, so he's moved permanently up from the practice squad. Johnson would be the first player I'll try to add to my dynasty rosters this week, whether I'm a playoff team or not.

Still Not Right

• It's painful to admit, but something is still not right with Saquan Barkley, who Devontae Booker outperformed in a competitive game against the Cowboys. Booker did not compile his yards and fantasy points in garbage time. He was a big part of the offense and outplayed Barkley. It's hard to believe that Barkley, the consensus number one pick in start-up drafts two years ago, has lost a step or been able to recover from injuries when he's only 24 years old, but it looks like he has. I've made excuses for him throughout this season because the Giants' offense has been so bad, but when Booker looked better than Barkley on Sunday with the same lousy offense and backup quarterback, it made me rethink the bad offense excuse. Barkley and Booker have the exact amount of fantasy points (108) on the season. Barkley did miss three games with an injury, but Booker scored 14, 15, and 14 fantasy points in those three games. Barkley has only scored 14 or more fantasy points in three games this season. I only have Barkley in one league, and I traded A.J. Brown to get him last offseason. I regret that trade immensely, and I lost my playoff matchup this week in that league, in part to Barkley's bad day. 

Top That

• Travis Kelce regained the highest-scoring tight end spot after his 36-point game on Thursday, but he only held the lead for a few days because Mark Andrews took it right back on Sunday, even with a backup quarterback throw him passes. Andrews didn't top Kelce's 36 points, but he got close with 31 after matching Kelce with two touchdown catches. Kelce and Andrews crossed the 1000-yard mark this week. Andrews trails Kelce by only four yards receiving, but he has one more touchdown. Last week I moved Andrews ahead of Kelce in my dynasty rankings with a nine-year age gap between them. I should have done so sooner. Andrews is now my #2 ranked tight end behind only George Kittle, the only tight end averaging more points per game this season than Andrews.
• On another Ravens note, Tyler Huntley has had eyes for Andrews during his two first career starts, and he's been wise to do so. Even though the Ravens lost both games without Lamar Jackson, he has looked like a starting NFL quarterback. He's not under contract next season, so these games could serve as an audition, leading him to get signed as a starter for a team next year or at the very least brought in to compete for a job. In one-quarterback leagues, where Huntley is likely on the waiver wire, I'd look to add him this week.

Making Money

• Russell Gage is playing well enough in Calvin Ridley's absence to warrant a new contract with the Falcons or another NFL team next year. Since Ridley left the team for mental health reasons, Gage has scored 11.5 fantasy points per game and become a reliable starter in playoff matchups. He's led the team in targets the last five weeks in a row and will continue to do so for the rest of the season. He had an incredible touchdown catch on Sunday when he lept over a defender in the back of the end-zone to come down with the ball and scored a season-high 19 fantasy points on Sunday. Throughout his career in Atlanta, Gage has provided consistent play when allowed to play more while Julio Jones was injured. This year he's had the chance to play the number one role instead of number two, and he's making the most of it. Atlanta already needed wide receiver depth before Ridley stepped away, so they'd be wise to sign him. Frank Darby was one of my late-round targets in rookie drafts last year because I liked his college tape and his chance to earn a role on the team since Atlanta's wide receiver corps is weak. Darby and Gage were sixth-round picks by Atlanta in 2018 and 2021, respectively. Gage has proven to be the better pick. They should sign him to a second contract before other teams start the bidding in free agency. 

Doubting Dak

• A lot of the talk in Dallas last week was about Dak's current slump. The team is on a three-game winning streak, but not because Dak is carrying the team. The Cowboys' defense is winning games for them and allowing Dak and the offense to play more conservatively. The Cowboys have forced four turnovers per game over the last three weeks, so the offense has not had to do much. It would be silly to think the defense can continue to get that many turnovers each week, so I believe Dak will be more productive as the season continues. He scored more than 20 fantasy points in seven of the ten games he played this season before this three-game winning streak. Nothing has changed with Dak or his weapons over the last three weeks. It's just the game scripts that have changed when the defense forces four turnovers. Unfortunately, it comes at a bad time for dynasty managers in the playoffs. Dak's 10-point fantasy day resulted in 2-point and 8-point duds for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Unless you had some week-15 studs on your rosters with these Cowboys, your playoff run is likely over, but the future of this passing game is still very bright.

Mile High Disappointment

• On Sunday, every player in the Bengals vs. Broncos matchup underperformed their season average except for Tyler Boyd, who had the only big play of the entire game with 30 seconds left in regulation. Joe Burrow had just 101 yards passing until Boyd's 56-yard touchdown. Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase combined for three catches and 26 yards, and Joe Mixon had just 60 yards. It was Chase and Mixon's worst fantasy games of the year and Higgins' second worst. I expected Denver's excellent defense to make all Bengals' fantasy starters less productive than usual, but I did not think it would be this bad. I benched Joe Burrow in the only league that I have him, but I could not bench Higgins, Chase, and Mixon. On of the teams where I started them, I am now predicted to lose now. The same was true for the Broncos players, though they've only had two reliable fantasy starters with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams this season. Gordon had his second-worst fantasy game of the season and Williams his worst game since their bye week. Players in this game killed teams in the fantasy playoffs. That is unless you had their kickers who kicked four field goals, three from fifty-plus yards. All of the Bengals players are top-twelve dynasty prospects, so be glad if you have them on a team, but that doesn't take away the sting of this loss. Javonte Williams will move into the top-tier of dynasty running backs soon, but the talented wide receivers in Denver need a new quarterback to see their dynasty value rise again. Hopefully, that will happen for them this offseason.

Sunday Night Downer

• Week fifteen started with the joys of a high-scoring overtime thriller on Thursday night but was bookended on Sunday by a low-scoring fantasy disaster. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were shut out in a painful 9-0 loss to New Orleans. Tom Brady carried fantasy teams into the playoffs with his play and his impact on all of their offensive weapons, but Sunday had the worst game of his fantasy season and NFL season, and it brought the whole offense down with him. Brady's night got worse when all of his pass-catchers were injured. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette left the game with injuries as the offense came crashing down. The Saints did not have it any better. As I predicted last week, Taysom Hill's cheat-code success came to an end against Tampa Bay's stout run defense. I also expected Alvin Kamara to score much lower than his season average against the Buccaneers, but I did not think he'd have his single worst fantasy day of the season. On Sunday night, dynasty managers turned on the game in hopes of mounting comebacks or adding to leads but instead got to watch their winning percentage chance drop over the next three hours. The Saints need a new quarterback and a Michael Thomas back to help Alvin Kamara hold his dynasty value. He can't do it all by himself every week. Chris Godwin is likely to become a free agent and sadly tore his ACL in the game. He could be ready to play in week one of next season, but it's possible that he won't be ready. It will be an interesting offseason for him. Tampa Bay has to decide what they'll do with Fournette, too. If he signs with the Buccaneers, his dynasty value remains high but would drop if signed by another team. If Brady comes back, Mike Evans will do what he always does - rack up 1000 receiving yards and a lot of touchdowns. 

---

Grading My 2021 Trades

Now that the trade deadlines have passed in all of my leagues, I decided to look back on the trades I made this season to see what I think about them now that the regular season is over. It's a good thing for dynasty managers to do this time of year so that you can learn from your mistakes and successes. Here's an honest assessment of the trade I made during the 2021 season.

Tee Higgins <-----> DeAndre Hopkins

• I traded away Hopkins to get Higgins, and it was perfectly timed for my playoff run. Hopkins is one of my all-time favorite players, and he has been on my roster in this league for seven years after I traded Mark Ingram to get Hopkins before his breakout season. Hopkins' injuries and lack of week-winning games began to concern me this season. I decided I wanted to sell Hopkins for a younger up-and-coming wide receiver and found a taker with Tee Higgins. Higgins was underperforming when I made the trade offer but helped carry my team to the playoffs since he played so well at the end of the fantasy regular season. This trade is the one I am most pleased with this season. I'm thrilled to have bought back seven years for a player I had ranked in the same tier in my dynasty rankings. I'm the defending champ in this league and was the highest-scoring team this season.

Zach Ertz and Phillip Lindsay <-----> Darnell Mooney

• I was offered Darnell Mooney by a contending team that was desperate at tight end because of injuries and bye weeks. I have Dawson Knox and Dallas Goedert on my roster, so I could easily part with Ertz. My wide receivers in this league are good but getting older. I have Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Jarvis Landry. My attempts to get younger at wide receiver the last few seasons have failed. I drafted Jalen Reagor and Bryan Edwards, both of which have not seen my starting lineup and appear to be busts. I traded away a first-round pick for Tyler Boyd at the end of last season before the Bengals drafted Ja'Marr Chase, and Boyd's dynasty stock in 2021 production took a significant dive. Mooney is the 26th highest scoring wide receiver in this league. If he continues to develop his chemistry with Justin Fields and Alan Robinson leave the team in free agency, this could be a steal of a trade for me.

Devonta Freeman <-----> 2022 2nd round pick

                                   Moved to...

Devonta Freeman <-----> Robert Woods

• This one is what I call a bounce-back trade. I was fighting for the final playoff spot in this 14-team all-flex league, so I traded a future second-round pick to get Freeman while he was leading the Baltimore backfield, thinking he could give me the small punch needed to keep my playoff position. Unfortunately, with two games left, the writing was on the wall, and I would not make the playoffs, so I put Freeman on the block to help the playoff teams. I wanted to get a second-round pick back but was only offered a third from several teams, so I countered by aiming for an older injured player that I thought could still help my team for a few more years. I found one in Robert Woods. I wish I could have my second-round pick back to get younger in this league, but I am happy with Woods, too, since I have a competitive roster and Matt Stafford as one of my two starting quarterbacks.

Zach Ertz <-----> Marquez Callaway and Jonnu Smith

                                             Moved to...

Zach Ertz and Devontae Booker <-----> Logan Thomas

• I acquired Ertz days before he was traded to Arizona in the first trade. His dynasty value significantly increased after that trade and after a few productive games. I like Logan Thomas more than Ertz, though they are close in my rankings at 12th and 16th. George Kittle is my starting tight end in this league, so Ertz and Thomas are solid backups when the oft-injured Kittle is sidelined. Once Kittle returned from his injury, I was willing to trade for the injured Thomas to have him as my future backup. Both guys are old, but Thomas is one year younger at age 30.

Chuba Hubbard and Ricky Seals Jones <-----> Dallas Goedert and Mike Davis

• In this trade, I overpaid to get Chubba Hubbard to handcuff Christian McCaffrey, who was killing my team for the second year in a row. I made this trade earlier in the season before Ameer Abdullah started to cut into Hubbard's snap count. George Kittle is my starting tight end in this league, so I was more willing to give Goedert away, but looking back, I think it was unwise to do so. I have a top-three roster in this league, but at the time of the trade was losing games due to injuries and having the most points scored against me. I fought back to make the playoffs, but it was not because of anything Hubbard or Seal-Jones did to help me, and as you'll see next, I traded Christian McCaffrey anyway.

Christian McCaffrey <-----> Elijah Mitchell, Rashod Bateman, and a 2022 second round pick

• In a win-now move and an effort to secure a bye week in the playoffs, I finally got a deal done for Christian McCaffrey. The other manager and I exchanged multiple counters until I finally got what I thought could help me this year and in the future. Sadly, Elijah Mitchell's late-season injury kept me from securing a bye week. I lost in a total-points tiebreaker by .55 points! Even more sadly, It looks like he will not help me in my playoff run, though I am still favored to win in the first round of the playoffs. If Mitchell has done enough this season to firmly win the leading role in the 49ers' backfield in future seasons, then I will be very pleased with this trade. If Mitchell gets caught in a Shanahan committee, I will lose this trade. I was willing to take the risk, given that I added Bateman, one of my favorite rookie prospects, and a future second-round pick which I now know is pick #11 in this 10-team league. If Bateman becomes all I believe he can be and I hit the #11 pick next year, this could be a good trade for me, even if Mitchell gets stuck in a committee.

Leave your comment using the form below

Name
Comment
Enter the code