Mon Feb 20th 2023

Second-Tier Rookie Running Backs

Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are sure bet to be the first running backs selected in the NFL draft and dynasty rookie drafts, but after them, it's a guessing game. There are a lot of intriguing prospects in the second tier, and they'll get pushed down the board in rookie drafts because many wide receivers and a couple of tight ends will get drafted ahead of them.

Dynasty managers who rank the second tier or running backs correctly and select the right ones in rookie drafts will have a chance to land a starting running back much later than usual. The trick will be sorting them out and ranking them correctly.

Their NFL draft capital will mean more for their dynasty value than anything else, so my rankings will change more than usual after the NFL draft, but here is how I rank these second-tier running backs before the NFL Combine.

Sean Tucker - ranked #11

• Tucker is a 3-star, 5-10, 210-lb. running back who compiled 3804 total yards in his three years at Syracuse. He is my RB-3, while he's DLF's RB-6.
• Tucker has the prototypical size and frame of an NFL running back and has quickness and breakaway speed, too. He received 137 carries as a freshman before his breakout second year when he ran for 1496 yards. He got more involved as a pass catcher each season, too, catching three passes per game last year. He's proven sturdy and tough, with 246 carries his second season and 206 last season. It's high praise, but he reminds me of Nick Chubb with his build and running style.

Israel Abanikanda - ranked #14

• Abanikanda is a 3-star, 5-11, 215-lb. running back who compiled 1577 total yards and 21 touchdowns last year at Pittsburg. He is my RB-4, while he's DLF's RB-9.
• Izzy, as he is called, did not break onto the scene until his junior season last year, but it was an incredibly productive year with 21 touchdowns. He's a patient runner with quick feet that helps him maneuver well between the tackles, and when he finds a lane, he bursts through it. He averages 6.0 yards per carry, a critical threshold that historically translates to NFL success. He was not involved in the passing game much but was a workhorse last season with 239 carries, so he can hold up carrying the load in the NFL, even if just in the running game.

Tank Bigsby - ranked #15

• Bigsby is a 4-star, 6-0, 208-lb. running back who compiled 3351 total yards in his three years at Auburn. He is my RB-5, while he's DLF's RB-8.
• Tank averaged 6 yards per carry his first year with 834 rushing yards. After an outstanding freshman season, he was thought by many dynasty managers to be the top devy running back. He was more productive overall during his sophomore and junior seasons, but he did not build upon the success of his freshmen year as everyone expected. He's a tough runner that runs to contact and breaks a lot of tackles. He's a little taller than I like and runs upright, but he's still hard to tackle. I've learned not to discount players too much if they were once considered a top devy prospect. Tank's best year was his freshman year, but it's hard to break out as a freshman running back.

Zach Charbonnet - ranked #19

• Charbonnet is a 4-star, 6-1, 220-lb. running back who compiled 3935 total yards in his four years at Michigan and UCLA. He is my RB-6, while he's DLF's RB-4.
• Charbonnet did not break out until he transferred to UCLA his junior season, but he had two very productive and similar years with the Bruins, with 1330 total yards as a junior and 1680 as a senior. He was highly involved in the passing game, with 24 and 37 catches over the last two seasons. He's a well-rounded back that may be the third one drafted in the NFL draft, but I didn't see anything in his highlights that really stood out. He could be a good NFL running back, but he does not have the traits to be great.

Mohamed Ibrahim - ranked #20

• Ibrahim is a 3-star, 5-10, 210-lb. running back who compiled 1712 total yards in his fifth season at Minnesota after recovering from a torn Achilles. He is my RB-7, while he's DLF's RB-17.
• Last season was the test of the Achilles season in the NFL, with Cam Akers, D'Onta Foreman, and Marlon Mack trying to prove that running backs can bounce back after getting their Achileses repaired. Ibrahim proved they can, at least on the college level, and will also have a chance to prove it in the NFL. I have Ibrahim ranked significantly higher than the pros at DLF do since I have him ranked 20th, and DLF has him ranked 40th. I suppose it's fair to be concerned about his age since he's the oldest running back in this class at 24 years old, but I don't think it is reasonable to dock him for his injury since he bounced back with 320 carries for 1665 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns this season. He's done nothing in the passing game, but he's been a monster running the ball since his breakout freshman season when he rushed for 1160 yards. He wins with power and contact balance and could become a thumper if an NFL team deploys him right.

Zach Evans - ranked #23

• Evans is a 5-star, 5-11, 195-lb. running back who compiled 2342 total yards in his three years at TCU and Ole Miss. He is my RB-8, while he's DLF's RB-3.
• Evans is the only five-star recruit in this class, which buoys his dynasty value a bit. He was the #2 ranked running back in the nation when he signed with TCU. However, the fact that he never had a 1000-yard rushing season in college is a big red flag. He's definitely a big-play artist, averaging 6.9 yards per carry over his three years, but he never received more than 92 carries at TCU and had just 144 carries last season at Ole Miss. I'm shocked that DLF ranks him as their RB-3 and 6th overall.

Kendre Miller - ranked #24

• Miller is a 3-star, 6-0, 206-lb. running back who compiled 1515 total yards and 17 touchdowns in his final year at TCU. He is my RB-9, while he's DLF's RB-7.
• Miller had a modest start to his career but a highly productive season last year while helping his team to the championship game. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry in college, well above a critical threshold predicting NFL success. He was recruited as an athlete, so his production as a running back is a surprise, but he runs instinctively and is very elusive and fast. He's bigger than he looks on tape and carried the ball 224 times last season, proving himself durable.

Devon Achane - ranked #25

• Achane is a 4-star, 5-9, 185-lb. running back who compiled 2930 total yards in his three years at Texas A&M. He is my RB-10, while he's DLF's RB-5.
• Achane was used as an offensive weapon during his first two seasons at Texas A&M when he touched the ball sparingly but strategically. During those two seasons, he touched the ball 202 times and scored 15 touchdowns, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Last season, however, when they tried to use him more, he touched the ball 232 times and scored 11 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. I have him ranked lower than most analysts because his 185-lb frame can carry the load in the NFL. He could become an excellent offensive specialist, but that won't lead to consistent dynasty production. He'll be fun to watch but not fun to have on dynasty rosters.

Kenny McIntosh - ranked #30

• McIntosh is a 4-star, 6-1, 210-lb. running back who compiled 2443 total yards in his four years at Georgia. He is my RB-11, while he's DLF's RB-10.
• McIntosh didn't touch the ball much until his final season at Georgia, but he made the most of it, especially in the passing game. He caught 43 passes for 505 yards. He's solid as a runner but excels in the passing game, looking more like a receiver when catching the ball deep downfield last season. His role will likely be limited to the passing game in the NFL, but that's how running backs can stack up hidden points in fantasy. His value will rise or fall on his draft capital and which kind of offensive system he's under.

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