Tue Feb 25th 2025

Rookies I Like Less Than Other Analysts

As I mentioned last week, step two in my rookie evaluation involves learning from others by reading and listening to scouting reports and player profiles, studying NFL mock drafts, and comparing my rankings with others. I like to first compare my rankings with those from the pros at Dynasty League Football (DLF).

 

After comparing my early rookie rankings with theirs, I first wrote about rookies I had ranked five or more spots higher than their consensus rankings. This week, I'll write about players I have ranked five or more spots below their consensus rankings. I'll explain why I am lower on these rookies than they are.

 

Footnote: I made these rankings comparisons on February 14th, so DLF's rankings may have changed since then.

Kaleb Johnson

• Johnson is DLF's 6th-ranked rookie, while he's my 12th-ranked rookie.
• Johnson is DLF's 2nd ranked running back, while he's my 5th.
• Johnson had an exceptional final season at Iowa with 1537 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He earned an All-American Award for his efforts. I love his film and production, but I have a few pink flags that concern me and have caused me to rank a few other running backs in this class ahead of him. They're small things but enough to create a six-spot gap between my rankings and DLF. First, Johnson was only a three-star recruit. That's a small thing, but it can break ties when ranking him next to four and five-star guys who are very close to him in my rankings. Secondly, this was his lone breakout season. Other running backs in this class have had two or more highly productive seasons. Johnson's was more of a surprise season than what was expected of other backs in this class that I have ranked ahead of him, like Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins, who also had highly productive final seasons. As I have said before, draft capital and landing spot will factor more highly than ever with this running back class. They will be the ultimate tiebreaker in my final rookie rankings, but for now, Johnson loses the tie-break factors in my rankings up to this point. However, he's firmly in the second tier of this running back, with Ashton Jeanty in a tier of his own and Hampton, Henderson, Judkins, and Johnson all in the second tier together. I have Johnson last in that tier right now, whereas DLF has him first.

Elic Ayomanor

• Ayomanor is DLF's 13th-ranked rookie, while he's my 23rd-ranked rookie.
• Ayomanor is DLF's 5th-ranked wide receiver while he's my 10th.
• DLF's ranking of Ayomanor was the biggest surprise when comparing my rankings. I did not expect any analysts to see him as the fifth-best wide receiver in this class, but they do. I liked what I saw on film from Ayomanor, but I see him as more of a possession receiver who wins with his big body, catch radius, and body positioning. Those are all excellent traits, but I did not feel he had any explosive traits. I like the explosiveness and/or production of Trey Harris, Matthew Golden, and Jalen Royals. They are ranked significantly ahead of Ayomanor at 14th, 16th, and 18th.  In comparison, I have Ayomanor ranked in a pack with Xavier Restrepo (21st) and Isaiah Bond (22nd), with Ayomanor behind them at 23rd. Having rewatched his film again this morning, I'll consider moving him up to 21st ahead of Restrepo and Bond, but not ahead of the three I have ranked significantly ahead of him. NFL Mock Draft Database has Ayomanor as the 53rd player to be drafted, while Golden is 28th and Harris is 47th. Bond is right behind Ayomanor at 54th and Jalen Royals, who I like much more than Ayomanor, is 64th. Harris, Bond, Royals, and Ayomanor are in the same tier, but Ayomanor is at the back of it for me.

Isaiah Bond

• Bond is DLF's 16th-ranked rookie, while he's my 22nd-ranked rookie.
• He's DLF's 6th-ranked wide receiver, while he is my 9th.
• I assume that the pros at DLF are banking on recruiting pedigree and traits from Bond. He has those and will be a star at the Combine, but I have watched too much of him (or should I say not enough of him since he was injured so often) at Texas that I cannot rank him as high as DLF does. He was a four-star recruit to Alabama and a five-star in the transfer portal before coming to Texas. He'll likely test as one of the fastest wide receivers in the class. Still, his athleticism never equated to high-end production throughout his college career. 668 yards receiving was his top season, and his career-best in touchdowns was five. No matter the speed and pedigree, I can't trust a production profile like that. I've seen him with my own eyes at Texas, or, like I said, not seen him enough since he was constantly injured, which is another big concern. I cannot draft him as high as the pros at DLF are willing to.

Jalen Milroe

• Milroe is DLF's 17th-ranked rookie, while he's my 34th-ranked rookie.
• Milroe is DLF's 3rd ranked rookie quarterback while he's my 4th.
• This year's quarterback class is very weak. Cam Ward and Sheduer Sanders are sure to be first-round picks with the opportunity to start for their NFL teams in week one. Jaxon Dart is the only other player who has a chance to start in his first NFL season. I see the rest of this class as career backups who will only get a chance to play if their team's starter gets injured. Their games have too many flaws to become a quality starter in the NFL. There's no doubt that Milroe is a great athlete and runner, but you have to be a great passer, too, to become a starter in the NFL. Anthony Richardson is proving that point. Milroe never threw for more than 3000 yards in college, and his career-best touchdown passes were 23, with only 16 in his final season. The Alabama offense was far less productive under his lead than with his predecessor, Bryce Young. That concerns me, too. Even in superflex leagues, I would rather take stabs at the running backs and wide receivers in the second round this year. They are far more likely to hit.

Quinn Ewers

• Ewers is DLF's 20th-ranked rookie, while he's my 36th-ranked rookie.
• Ewers is  DLF's 5th ranked quarterback while he's my 6th.
• As I already stated, I see the second-tier quarterbacks in this class as career backups. Ewers was a great college quarterback, but he lacks the size and arm strength to be an NFL starter. As a fellow Longhorn, he reminds me a lot of Colt McCoy, who had a very successful college career and became a very capable backup at the next level. Ewers was often injured in college, and the players just get bigger and faster at the next level, and the hits get harder. He does not have the frame of an NFL quarterback or the speed and running ability to get away with having a slight frame. He's also very indecisive in the pocket. He got away with it in college with Texas's excellent offensive system, but that won't be the case in the NFL. I hate to bash two Longhorns in this article, but at least you know I am not biased in my analysis.

Savion Williams

• Williams is DLF's 18th-ranked rookie, while he's my 42nd-ranked rookie.
• Williams is DLF's 8th-ranked wide receiver, while he's my 17th.
• After seeing the huge discrepancy in our rankings, I decided to study Williams more and reconsider my early stance on him. He's one of the most unique prospects in the class, and I was initially not interested in drafting him or ranking him very high. Still, I may soften my stance, but I need to reconsider if his uniqueness is positive rather than negative. He was a four-star recruit as a wide receiver but also played quarterback in high school. In his final season at TCU, he played a ton of snaps at running back. He had almost as many runs as he had catches. He had 61 catches for 611 yards and six touchdowns in the air and 50 carries for 332 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He was a true duel-threat player. Usually, I object to this kind of player and production, taking the stance that they are a "jack of all trades but master of none." I'm still not willing to move from that perspective and think other managers and analysts will have Williams ranked ahead of me before all rookie drafts, but I should move him up my rankings a bit. Tyrone Tracy is the most recent example of a player who had a long college career playing both running back and wide receiver, and he had a great rookie season last year. I am confident that Williams will get drafted to play receiver, but a team may want to use him in other creative ways. I worry about him becoming a gadget guy like a Cordarrelle Patterson type, which rarely produces for fantasy, at least not for years at a time. He is an explosive player with great instincts with the ball in his hands, and I can see his appeal and what managers will take a chance on him in the second round, but I would not take a chance on him until the back of the third round. As I stated before, I like too many good running backs and wide receivers more in the second round.

Tez Johnson

• Johnson is DLF's 27th-ranked rookie, while he's my 37th-ranked rookie.
• Johnson is DLF's 13th-ranked wide receiver, while he's my 15th.
• We rank Johnson similarly within the wide receiver class, but I have way more running backs and some tight ends ranked ahead of Johnson than they do. Johnson had an incredibly productive final two seasons at Oregon after transferring from Troy State, where he played for three seasons. He was a perfect fit for the Ducks wide-open offense. I'm less confident that he can do so in the NFL, especially given his size. He weighed in at 156 pounds at the Senior Bowl. The weigh-in was a major red flag, but then he was reportedly uncoverable at the Senior Bowl practices. He'll draw comparisons to Tank Dell, who, though undersized, was fantastic in his first two seasons. That is when he was on the field and not injured. Injuries can be flukey, but size is a concern for me when it comes to prospects. That's the main reason why I have dinged him in my rookie rankings and will likely not have him ranked as highly as other analysts and managers. His three-star recruit pedigree and college beginning at Troy State are also a concern for me, in addition to Oregon's offense being among the type that inflates players' statistics, especially in the passing game. Those are my concerns for Johnson and why I see him as a player to take a chance on in the three-four turn rather than early in the third round. 

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