Tue Apr 15th 2025

Rookie Risers

I enjoyed a week off last week as my wife and I spent five days in Spokane, Washington, for a fantastic wedding weekend where I had the privilege of being a groomsman for the first time in over a decade. 51-year-old groomsmen are rare, but I was blessed to be in the wedding party of the boy I used to nanny (we called it Manny).

I used my time on the planes and the long layovers to continue my study of the rookie class by studying mock drafts, listening to NFL insiders, and reading and listening to professional scouts. I generally hold to my first opinions about players after my personal study, but hearing from the NFL insiders who study the rookies as their full-time jobs does influence my rookie rankings prior to the draft. Then, the draft serves as the final information piece in my rankings as draft capital and landing spot factor into rankings. As for now, less than two weeks from the NFL draft, I have settled in on my pre-draft rankings.

This week, I went back to see which players have risen the most in my rankings in recent weeks and after the NFL Combine. In this article, I'll share about the ten players who have risen up my rankings the most over the last month as we near the final pivot point, the NFL draft.

Jalen Milroe

• This week, I was blown away to learn that Milroe was invited to attend the draft in person, tremendously increasing his odds of being drafted in the first round. Those odds have caused me to move him up my rookie rankings from 34th to 24th because if he gets the draft capital, that's too much to argue with, and he becomes a rookie dynasty managers must take a chance on in superflex leagues. If you've followed me for over two years, you know I am far lower on athletic quarterbacks who are inaccurate passers. For example, I was far less high on Anthony Richardson than other dynasty managers. The same is true for me with Milroe, so while I raised him in my rankings given his likely first-round draft capital, I still will not get many shares of him and will have him ranked lower than most dynasty managers after the NFL draft. There's no doubt that he's an incredible athlete, which is why a team will take a chance on him, but his inaccuracy is a problem for me. He completed 66 and 64 percent of his passes in his final two seasons at Alabama and played worse in his final season than he did the season before. Granted, there was a change in the coaching staff at Alabama, but he didn't end his college career well enough to make me hopeful that he can grow into an NFL quarterback. It sounds crazy to dump on the first guy that I am calling a rookie riser, but I do so just because I have raised him in my rankings and, if drafted early, will take a chance on him at the 2-3 turn, but I believe others will rank him much higher than me and draft him much earlier.

Tyler Shough

• I have to admit that in this poor rookie quarterback class, I did not even have Shough ranked in my pre-Combine rankings, but as the hype and interest around this seven-year college player have built, I've added him back into my ranking and would take a chance on him at the back of the third round in rookie drafts. He could move significantly up or down my rankings depending on where he is drafted, but the odds are increasing that he will get drafted early in the second round, making him a player dynasty managers need to consider drafting earlier than I expected in rookie drafts. I hate to pooh-pooh on players I've included in my new rookie raisers list, but I will likely not have him ranked as high as others, even if he is drafted in the second round. This year's class is filled with career backups aside from Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Jaxson Dart. I could be wrong, though, so I've moved Shough up my rankings prior to the NFL draft, as he's been getting a lot of buzz and team visits in recent weeks.

Omarion Hampton

• It's a small leap from 6th to 3rd in my superflex rankings, but Hampton has jumped all the receivers in my rookie rankings to 3rd behind Ashton Jeany and Cam Ward. Over the last few weeks, it seems more evident that he will be a first-round pick and is seen by many scouts as the solo second-tier running back behind Jeanty and ahead of all the others in this deep class, with tier three including 4-5 running backs. He'll get drafted by a team with no competition ahead of him, whereas the third-tier running backs may get drafted by teams with some competition on their depth chart. Add to that the growing uncertainty of who is the wide receiver one in this class and where the receivers will land, and Hampton becomes a more reliable second or third pick in this class depending on if you're in a superflex league or not or even have quarterback depth in a superflex league. I have the 1.2 in the superflex league, where I have depth and quarterback and less depth at running back. I plan to draft Hampton at the 1.2 unless the landing spot is terrible, but I doubt he will not get drafted by a team intending on starting him from day one. 

RJ Harvey

• Harvey has not moved up my rankings significantly, but many of the scouts I read and listened to were higher on him than I was, so he has moved up to 23rd in my rankings, where he was 27th before the Combine. He's been a steady riser in the NFL Mock Draft Database throughout the last month, proving that scouts are higher on him than I first thought, and NFL insiders are reporting it. I went back to study his college production and remembered that he hit the above-six-yards-per-carry threshold (a significant marker for me) all three years at UCF with 6.7, 6.3, and 6.8 yards per carry over his three years. Even though the competition was weaker than those in the Power Five conferences, his stats are impressive. It's a small thing, but I like players that transferred from another position. Harvey was a quarterback in high school and became a running back in college. It is a sign of a knowledgeable and true athlete. As I've learned more about him and watched his film again, I am more confident that he's worth a second-round draft pick. His draft capital and landing spot will significantly move him up or down after the draft. 

DJ Giddens

• Like Harvey, Giddens's draft capital and landing spot will radically affect his ranking after the draft, but I've been far more impressed with him after my first round of study. The NFL Mock Draft Database predicts that he will be drafted before RJ Harvey. Either way, they are in the same camp to get drafted mid to late day three. As I went back to studying him after listening to scouts and NFL insiders being higher on them than I was initially, I was pleased to see his versatility and consistency at Kansans State. Plus, he improved every year. He had more than 110 yards per game on the ground in his final season after 94 yards per game the year before. He's a do-it-all type of prospect that one NFL team will draft to be part of a committee and may find out he's their best all-around back. He's a great running back to take a chance on in this year's deep class. Harvey, Giddens, and Martinez, the next player I will mention, are all in the same tier, and their draft capital and landing spot will radically change where they land in my post-draft rankings. I'd love to draft them all. Draft capital and team will mean everything for them.

Damien Martinez

• I've been extremely surprised by the number of dynasty analysts who have been higher on Martinez than I have been. Their confidence in him has caused me to raise him to 33rd in my rookie rankings, but if dynasty managers in my leagues listen to them, they will still draft him way earlier than I would be willing to draft him. I've been surprised to see analysts like him so much and see him as a reliable thumper and short-yardage back in the running game. I did not see that in his film, as he appeared to be a player who only capitalizes on open creases and was impressive on his few catches on highlight film but less productive in the passing game overall. I'll admit that he hit the six-yards-per-carry threshold with 6.1, 6.1, and 6.3 in his career, but it seemed far too schemed up for me. I could be terribly wrong, but I'm not near as high on him as so many in the industry are. I listened enough to move him up to 33rd, but he will get drafted before I would be willing to draft him. Only landing spot could change my mind after the draft.

Tahj Brooks

• The same could be true for Brooks, who only moved up because Matt Waldman loves him so much, and who can argue with the man behind the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, which NFL teams look to for scouting, though they may never admit it. I moved him up a few spots from 50 to 45, but I am sticking with my conviction that he's not a future starter in the NFL. I mention him here just to talk about the differences of opinion with him. I'll praise him for his durability. He had 290 and 286 carries in the last two years, but that was in his fourth and fifth years in college because he was never a top prospect to come out early for the draft. He was effective in the passing game, with 26, 29, and 28 receptions in the last three years. He could become a good passing-downs back in the NFL, but I cannot imagine him as any more than that in the NFL. I've raised his ranking based solely on the opinion of Waldman, but I'm sure I'm still far below other managers who heed his advice and move him up far more than the five spots I have. He's still a fourth-round stab in my eyes.

Travis Hunter

• Hunter is a certain first-round pick in dynasty leagues, but at enormous risk, given that dynasty managers do not know if he will play primarily as a DB or WR. The buzz in recent weeks is that many teams view him as a wide receiver first and the fact that the teams in the draft need a wide receiver more than a defensive back. This recent news and wide receiver buzz has moved Hunter to my 6th ranked rookie when I was cautiously holding him back at the ten spots over the last month. Based on his positional diversity, he's the most difficult rookie ranking I ever remember. The more I have listened to scouts and NFL insiders, the tide is turning. Many seem confident that he will play wide receiver as much as a defensive back, which was not the case four to six weeks ago. Above all other players, his rookie ranking will change based on which team drafts him and where they plan to play him. He's one of the riskiest first-round draft picks of all time, not based on talent but based on how teams will use him. I just hope there is some clarity to make things easier for dynasty managers. Most scouts have him as the clear WR-1 and CB-1 in this draft.  Which will he play?

Kyle Williams

• I have a confession. Williams was not included in my pre-Combine rankings, but I've now learned how high some dynasty and NFL analysts have him ranked among their top ten wide receivers. Their confidence and his rise in the NFL Mock Draft Database have caused me to evaluate him for the first time and reconsider his ranking, where he has moved up from unknown to 20th in my rankings. NFL Mock Database predicts he will be drafted around the same area as Savion Williams and Xavier Restrepo at the end of the third round. I watched his highlights for the first time this week and was impressed. He's an older prospect after five years in college at UNLV and Washington State, but he exploded in his final season with 70 catches for 1198 yards and 14 touchdowns. He's a late-year breakout and a transfer from a smaller school to a bigger one, but no one can argue with his productive final season. His performance in his final season makes me consider him one of the most interesting prospects in this class, even though I studied him so late. He's the fastest riser in phase two of studying this class. We'll see if his draft capital causes him to rise or fall, but a rise to 20th is very impressive and an oversight on my part.

Jack Bech

• Bech has risen up NFL rookie boards and dynasty boards from the day rankings were posted and he's risen up a few spots on my board from 31 to 27. It's a modest rise because I was already high on him, but the more I hear NFL insiders and scouts talk about him, he's crept up my draft board. He's predicted by most to be a sure second-round draft pick and, most recently, a scout I trust compared to this year's Puka Nacua, which I've thought about but been afraid to proclaim. He's a true football player, playing tight end, slot, and wideout in college. He can do it all, including blocking in the running game. He is a perfect player for the Rams or other teams that require toughness and blocking from their wide receivers. His team and landing spot will significantly impact his final rookie ranking. If he's drafted early, as expected, and to a team I'm confident will employ him in the offense wisely, he'll move up the rankings even more. If he's drafted a bit later or to a team I don't trust will use him rightly, he will fall in my rankings, unfortunately, because I love him as a player but think he needs the right environment to impact dynasty teams.

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