Sat Mar 30th 2019

Re-Ranking the 2018 Rookie Class

What I learned from last year

One of the best things we can do this time of year is look back at our previous rookie draft boards and rookie drafts. It's good to re-rank rookies to see how you'd compare your current evaluation to your evaluations before the rookie draft. It’s also good to look back at last year’s rookie drafts in order to see where players were drafted compared to where you had them ranked before the draft and where you have them ranked today.

It's a great way to look back at where you went right vs. where you went wrong. I went back and looked at all of my rookie drafts last year to see where each of the top 20 rookies were drafted to get their average draft position (ADP) from last year.  I do this exercise every year to learn where my process worked and where it didn’t. 

I'll be honest about my own evaluations now.  Here is a list of the top 20 players on my 2018 rookie draft board compared to how I would rank the top 20 rookies today.  In between is the average draft position (ADP) of where the rookies went in all of my rookie drafts last year.  Below I’ll share a few things I have learned from this exercise.

Where I Was Right

• Nick Chubb: I had Chubb as a firm #2 behind Sequon last year before the draft while his ADP was #5.  Today I still have him ranked as the #2 ranked rookie behind only Sequon.  Cleveland’s offense is on the rise and I’m not worried about Kareem Hunt’s presence on the team even after he comes back after his 8-game suspension.  He’s already us already my #6 ranked RB overall.

• Kerryon Johnson: I had Kerryon as my #5 ranked player before the last year’s rookie draft while his ADP was 9th.  Today I have him ranked as the #3 ranked rookie behind only Sequon and Chubb.  Last year in my one start-up draft I drafted Chubb in the 3rd round and Kerryon in the 5th round.  I love the way my team looks in that new league!  Kerryon will always be injury prone, which limits his value.  Still, I have him as my #14 RB in my overall rankings.  Detroit wants to be a run-first offense, so this could be a great year for Kerryon if he can stay healthy.

• Courtland Sutton: I had Sutton ranked as my #18 player before last year’s rookie drafts while his ADP was #11 in my drafts.  I was much lower on him than most experts.  I had 8 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him last year.  While he played better than I expected, I was still right to have him ranked lower than consensus.  I still have four rookie WRs ranked ahead of him today.  We’ll see if his second year of experience and a new QB in Flacco will move his value up or down.

• Donte Pettis:  I was not a lot higher on him than most, but I was by a fair amount.  I had him ranked as my #16 player before the draft while his ADP was #19.  The big change for me is that he is now my #1 ranked rookie WR.  He came on strong at the end of the season with back up QBs.  San Francisco let Pierre Garcon go and did not make any moves for WRs in free agency.  They will likely draft a WR or two, but they really like Pettis as I do.

• Antonio Callaway: I believe the process was right on this one, even though he is no longer among my top 20 rookies.  He would have been, but the OBJ trade to Cleveland means he’ll be the #3 WR for the Browns, not the #2 as he appeared to be by the end of the year.  That said, I had him ranked as my #19 rookie before last year’s draft, while his ADP was #29.  Granted, some people likely passed on him because of the character concerns.  My evaluation of him was still right, even though his value has gone down after the trade for OBJ.

Where I Was Wrong

• Sony Michel: I was much lower on Michel than all of the experts.  I was lower on him before the NFL draft, and lowered him even more after he was drafted by New England who always goes with the running back by committee philosophy.  I had him ranked as the #7 rookie before the rookie drafts, while his ADP was #4.  He went as the #2 rookie draft-pick in several of my leagues.  He started slow and I looked like I was right to be lower on him than most, but at the end of the year he came on super strong.  I still worry about the Patriots groups of RBs cutting into each other.  That said, today I rank him #4 among the rookies.

• Phillip Lindsay: I am not sure I can really say that I was wrong on this one because no one was drafting him in rookie drafts (at least rookie drafts that took place before the preseason).  So he went from unranked to now being my #7 ranked rookie when I re-rank them today.  I believe Royce Freeman is going to cut into the workload this year though, especially on the goal line like last year.  I still have Freeman ranked as my #12 rookie, just 5 spots behind Lindsay.

• Baker Mayfield: Baker, not listed in my top 20 ranked players before the draft, was my #21 ranked player last year.  In one QB leagues, I rarely draft and QB in the top 20 players.  I think I need to reconsider that from now on.  He played way better than I thought he would have and now has been given all the weapons he needs to be an every week starter on our dynasty teams.  He’s my #7 ranked QB overall now.  I was wrong on him for sure.

• Dallas Goedert: He also was not ranked among the top 20 rookies on my board last year before the draft.  He was before the NFL draft, but once he was drafted by Philadelphia I moved him down.  I was not confident that he would get very involved in the offense while sitting behind Ertz.  Well Philadelphia is one of the best teams at using TEs.  He was incredible last year and he’s just going to get more and more involved in the offense.  I’d rank him as the #10 rookie overall when I re-rank them today and he’s already moved up to my #11 TE overall.

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