Tue Apr 29th 2025

Post-Draft Rookie Risers and Fallers

The NFL draft is behind us, giving Dynasty Freeks the final and most important data point in their rankings process. Draft capital and team landing spots affect dynasty rankings more than anything else. Since the draft ended, I have finalized my rookie rankings and added all of the rookies to my overall dynasty rankings. It's my final step in preparing for my rookie drafts, which begin this week and run throughout the whole month of May. It's one of the most fun months of the year!

 

In this final article, before rookie drafts, I share my thoughts on the players who moved up and down my rookie rankings as a result of their draft capital and landing spot. Here I present my post-draft rookie risers and fallers.

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Rookie Risers

TreyVeon Henderson

• I moved Henderson up my rankings from 10th to 7th after the Patriots drafted him with the sixth pick in the second round. He's been my third-ranked running back since I first released my rankings on Super Bowl Sunday. He just got a little bump up the rankings after landing in a great spot. The Patriots did everything they could to make their offense more explosive in this draft. Henderson and Kyle WIlliams are playmakers. Henderson will be involved immediately in the passing game, and it won't take him long to surpass Rhamondre Stevenson on the depth chart to become their future RB-1.

Quinshon Judkins

• I also moved Judkins up my rankings after the Browns drafted him with the fourth pick of the second round. I expect most dynasty managers to have Judkins ranked ahead of Henderson, given that he was drafted two picks earlier, and Jerome Ford may seem less likely to be a threat for playing time compared to Rhamondre Stevenson, but I don't see it that way. I have far less confidence in the Cleveland offense and did not like that the Browns drafted Dylan Sampson two rounds later at the back of the fourth. I still love the landing spot and moved him up my board, but I expect that others will be higher on him than I am, especially if they have him ranked ahead of Henderson.

Colston Loveland

• I moved Loveland up from 15th to 9th after he was the first tight end drafted by the Bears with the tenth pick in the first round. Ben Johnson is the most creative playcaller in the league, and he drafted Loveland with a plan in mind. I initially expected that this draft capital and landing spot would cause me to move Loveland ahead of Tyler Warre in my rankings, but after the Bears later drafted Luther Burden, I grew more concerned about his target share since the Bears will have so many weapons in the passing game. I still love the landing spot and am confident that Johnson will get Loveland the ball in creative ways and meaningful circumstances. I have Warren ranked 5th and Loveland 9th in my post-draft rookie rankings. Both landed in great spots and have early first-round draft capital.

Matthew Golden

• Golden made a modest jump up three spots in my rankings after the Packers drafted him in the first round. He moved up from 14th to 11th, making him a first-round pick in rookie drafts for me. He has a lot of competition in the wide receiver room in Green Bay, but he has the highest draft capital of them all, so the Packers think he's the best of the bunch already. I love the Packers' offensive system and am sure Golden will fit in immediately and become Jordan Love's favorite target by midseason.

RJ Harvey

• Harvey made one of the biggest jumps in my rankings, moving all the way from 23rd to 12th after the Broncos drafted him in the second round. Harvey steadily rose up my rankings throughout the scouting process as more and more NFL teams, and scouts hyped him up. Coach Peyton wanted a running back to improve his offense, and Harvey was his selection. He will be an immediate starter and have every opportunity to become Peyton's bell-cow back.  I had him as a third-round pick with my initial rankings. He moved to a second-round pick after studying him more, and now I would draft him at the end of the first round. That's quite a rise!

Kaleb Johnson

• Johnson got a modest rise in my rankings, moving from 16th to 13th after he was selected by the Steelers, who have a pretty easy depth chart to climb. As one with many shares of Jaylen Warren, I was disappointed to see Johnson drafted by the Steelers in the third round. They didn't have a second-round pick, and I expected the running backs available in the third round to be no threat to Warren, but Johnson is a credible threat right away.  I am surprised he was not drafted in the second round. His unique running style fits well with the current offensive scheme in Pittsburgh, and I expect him to get about as many touches as Najee Harris did last year. It's running back by committee again for the Steelers. Both backs will do well, but their ceiling will be limited for at least this year. Warren's contract expires this year, so Johnson could have a more substantial role in the years to come.

Jayden Higgins

• I expected Higgins to get drafted in the second round, but I was surprised to see him picked with the second pick of the second round by the Texans, who desperately need a WR-2 to pair with Nico Collins. His draft capital alone is a reason to move him up rookie rankings, and his landing spot is even more reason to do so, given the immediate playing time he will get. I've moved him up to  15th from 18th, making him a player I'd like to select early in the second round like the Texans did.

Jack Bech

• Bech has been a steady riser in my rankings ever since his MVP play in the Senior Bowl. His draft capital (pick 2.26) and landing spot with the Raiders make me love him even more. I moved him up from 27th to 18th, making him a prime target in the middle of the second round. His style of play, work ethic, and character make him a perfect fit for Pete Carroll and the Raiders, who also have one of the weakest wide receiver depth charts. Ashton Jeanty and Bech will be key weapons in the Raiders' offense in their rookie seasons. The Raiders need them to be.

Elijah Arroyo

• Seattle needed tight end help, and they aggressively drafted Arroyo early with the 18th pick of the second round. Arroyo was not impressive from a college production side, but he's an incredible athlete. The Seahawks drafted a lot of "traits" guys in this draft. That must be something they value more than other teams. I expect Arroyo to take some time to get acclimated to the NFL, but he should have a bright future with the Seahawks. He's worth dynasty managers taking a stab at him in the third round of the rookie draft based just on his traits and tremendous draft capital.

Terrance Ferguson

• The Rams traded up to get the tight end that crushed his competition at the NFL Combine this year. Ferguson was the top tight end in nearly every athletic test at the Combine. Coach McVay has been eager to have an impactful tight end, and he paid up to get Ferguson, so he must be confident that he's their man. The Rams have one of the best track records in the NFL draft. They're almost always right. My confidence in the Rams and the fact that they traded up to get him in the second round give me confidence in moving him up my rankings from 42nd to 28th.

Woody Marks

• Marks was drafted far earlier than I expected him to get drafted. I warmed up on him a bit through the scouting season, moving him from 52nd to 43rd in my rankings after watching more of his college film and noticing a few scouts who spoke highly of his work, especially in the passing game. He now sits at 32nd in my rankings after he was selected by the Texans in the fourth round. Houston's depth chart is weak, and Joe Mixon is fast approaching the age cliff. I expect Marks to have a significant role in the passing game with the Texans at the very least. At best, he can prove himself worthy to be Mixon's successor. Those possibilities and his earlier-than-expected draft capital caused me to move him up to 32nd in my rookie rankings.

Jarquez Hunter

• As a manager with many shares of Blake Courm, I was very displeased with the Rams selecting Hunter and how early they did so. They drafted Hunter in the fourth round, a round later than where they drafted Corum last year, but the pick indicates that they wanted depth and/or competition behind Kyren Williams. One college scout I trust warned dynasty managers not to overlook Hunter because he is one of the hardest runners in this draft. He has power and finishes plays. As I already said, I trust the Rams' scouting staff, so if they like a guy more than I do, I begin to like that guy more, too. I moved Hunter up from 49th to 39th after the Rams selected him in the fourth round.

Jacory Croskey-Merrit

• Croskey-Merrit has been on my radar as a sleeper ever since he was named MVP of the Shrine Bowl. Hardly anyone knows about this guy, but he's my favorite sleeper in this class, especially after Washington drafted him in the last round of the draft. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler by no means have a stranglehold on the RB-1 spot in Washington. They are serviceable backs, but their ceilings are low at this point in their careers. He may not have done it on the biggest stages, but Croskey-Merrit had an 18-touchdown season at New Mexico before transferring to Arizona, where he had eligibility issues and only played one game, but he had 106 yards and a touchdown in that game. Hopefully, Washington will give him a chance to compete. If so, he could show that he has something neither Robinson or Ekeler have. I have a feeling I will draft a lot of Croskey-Merrit.

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Rookie Fallers

Shedeur Sanders

• It goes without saying that Sanders is a faller in rookie rankings, as he was the biggest faller on draft weekend. I had him 6th in my superflex rankings before the draft, but now I have moved him back to 24th. It appears that the NFL did not want to deal with his attitude problems and all that comes with his package, but dynasty managers don't have to deal with that. I believe he will emerge as the Browns' starter, even if it takes some time and humbling to do so. Therefore, I'd still take a chance on him in a superflex league, but not until the two-three turn. His NFL and dynasty fall are pretty one-of-a-kind.

Emeka Egbuka

• Egbuka had excellent draft capital, being drafted 19th in the first round, but his landing spot was a bummer. I love Egmuka, and he was ranked 7th before the NFL draft, but his landing spot in Tampa Bay caused me to move him back to 10th. There's too much veteran competition in Tampa Bay. I can't see a way that he will get more targets than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this year and maybe even a year beyond that. Tamps Bay was smart to select him and he'll become a great player for them, but it will take longer to see it happen than dynasty managers will be willing to wait. If I were at the start of a multi-year rebuild, I'd be pleased to draft Egbuka earlier than 10th, but if I was a competitive team, I'd have a hard time doing so. I love the player but hate the landing spot.

Luther Burden

• Burden took quite a fall in my rookie rankings after landing with the Bears in the second round after they had already added a pass-catching weapon in Colston Loveland. Coach Johnson said every pass catch would have to compete for a role, but I think there are too many cooks in their kitchen. I love everything the Bears did in the draft to make the offense more explosive, but I am too uncertain which players will get the most targets and opportunities between D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Burden, and Loveland. Maybe Ben Johnson is a wizard who can make them all productive for dynasty managers, but the math does not check out. I wish Burden was drafted by a different team.

Ollie Gordon

• I was surprised at how many running backs were drafted ahead of Gordon, and I hated that it was Miami who finally drafted him in the sixth round. Miami already has too many running backs on their roster, and Achane is the only one sure to get a lot of touches. What a long way Gordon has fallen since his league-leading rushing season in 2023. I was banking on that year to boost at least one NFL team's confidence in him, but everyone passed on it. Dynasty managers have to pass on it, too, now.

Jalen Royals

• Royals was one of my favorite players to study this scouting season. His tape is a blast to watch. I felt very confident that he would get drafted late in the second round or early in the third. His fall to the very end of the fourth round (4.31) and his landing spot in Kansas City crushed my hopes for him. I've moved him down from 19th to 35th in my rookie rankings. Kansas City has one of the most difficult wide receiver depth charts to climb. I'm sure coach Reid envisions ways he can use his skill set, but it's hard to believe he can become more than a gadget guy in their crowded receiving room. I hate that Royals landed with the Chiefs.

Elic Ayomanor

• I was already lower on Ayomanor than most dynasty analysts, but his draft capital and landing spot have made me move him even further down my rankings from 29th to 37th. His college tape and production were too inconsistent from game to game. I am sure that NFL teams look at his good games and think they can bring that out of him, but I'm no one who believes they can. Then he got drafted later than expected (4.34) by the Titans, who loaded up on pass catchers in the draft after signing Tyler Lockett before the draft. They drafted Chimere Dike with the first pick of the fourth round and Gunnar Helm in the middle of the fourth round, both ahead of Ayomanor. Then, they added Xavier Restrepo as a free agent. It's wide receiver soup for Cam Ward and the Titans, making me want to avoid them all.

Xavier Restrepo

• Speaking of Restrepo, though he had a terrible pro day, I expected a few NFL teams to weigh his college tape over his testing and take a chance drafting him on day three, but no one did, and he went undrafted. I moved him from 28th to 56th in my rankings as a result, making him a player I'd only take a risk on in the last round of deep rookie drafts. He's part of the Tennessee wide receiver soup, so he'll have a chance to earn a roster spot, especially if his college quarterback, Cam Ward, favors him. It will take a long time to tell, though. Restrepo went from one of the most productive receivers in the University of Miami's history to an undrafted free agent. That's too much for dynasty managers to overlook.

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