Tue Apr 30th 2024

Post-Draft Risers and Fallers

The last domino has fallen.  The NFL draft has ended, and we now know rookies' draft capital and landing spots. I've made my final adjustments to my rookie rankings and am ready for rookie drafts to get started this week and next month. I've also integrated all of the rookies into my overall rankings.

It was a fun and busy weekend watching the draft and making in-time adjustments in preparation for rookie drafts. I'm fired up and excited to start adding these players to my teams. I hope my updated rankings can benefit your teams, too, in your upcoming rookie drafts.

In this post, I write about the players whose draft capital and landing spot moved them up or down my rookie rankings by at least five spots compared to my pre-draft rankings.  Here are my post-draft risers and fallers.

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Risers

Bo Nix

• Bo Nix moved up my rankings from #20 to #10.
• The Broncos drafted Nix with the 12th pick of the draft, making him the sixth quarterback drafted in this year's class. He landed with a team with a thin depth chart and will have every opportunity to start for the Broncos right away. Sean Peyton sent Russell Wilson packing and now selected the quarterback he believes can run his system. Nix started the most collegiate games of any quarterback history, giving him more experience than Jared Stidham and Zach Wilson. I like that the Broncos traded up to add Nix's college teammate, Troy Franklin, to the team, too. Rookie drafts will be fun in superflex leagues, with five quarterbacks poised to start for their teams on day one. Nix is the last of the five, but a worthy first-round pick now that he has landed with the Broncos with the 12th pick.

Keon Coleman

• Keon Coleman moved up my rankings from #18 to #12.
• Coleman was one of the most polarizing prospects in this class, but landing with the Bills with the first pick of the second round moves him up everyone's draft board after the draft. The Bills have a wide-open depth chart after Stefon Diggs and his 160 targets were traded away to Houston. Coleman's size and contested-catch ability are suited for Josh Allen, and he will become his primary target immediately.  He played at Michigan State before transferring to Florida State, so he knows how to play in Buffalo's climate. His production was up and down last year at Florida State, but his up games were fantastic. Buffalo is betting on that ability, and I'm more willing to do so now that he was drafted so high to a team with Josh Allen and a huge hole to fill.

Ladd McConkey

• Ladd McConkey moved up my rankings from #19 to #14.
• McConkey was the second pick of the second round, drafted right after Keon Coleman.  The Chargers also had an even more giant hole to fill after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen landed on new teams via free agency and trade. While McConkey's production profile was lacking, his athletic testing and route running moved him up NFL draft boards throughout the offseason.  He's able to win in a lot of the ways Keenan Allen did, through precision route running. Justin Herbert has proven he can pepper a guy like that with targets. While the pass volume should decrease with Jim Harbaugh's system, he's the player Harbaugh drafted with a plan to use him. I'll look to draft him early in the second round of rookie drafts like the Chargers did.

Audric Estime

• Audric Estime moved up my rankings from #33 to #28.
• Estime was drafted late in the fifth round but landed on a team with a somewhat questionable depth chart. The Broncos have Javonte Williams, Samje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams didn't take over the backfield as dynasty managers hoped last season after returning from injury.  Perine is who he is at this point in his career, and McLaughlin is just a change-of-pace back.  Estime is a bulldozer. He's the best short-yardage back in this class and has a prolific production profile with 29 rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons. Sean Peyton is known for rotating his backs, and he drafted Estime with a role in mind to be their short-yardage and red-zone back. If he excels at that, he could get more opportunities than that, making him a player I'm excited to draft early in the third round instead of late.

Luke McCaffrey

• Luke McCaffrey moved up my rankings from #42 to #35.
• McCaffrey was surprisingly drafted with the last pick of the third round by the Commanders. His bloodline and athletic testing caused the Commanders to draft him earlier than expected to play as their slot receiver. While the WR-3 role on a team with a running quarterback like Jayden Daniels is not ideal, the draft capital, bloodline, and testing make me willing to draft him higher than I would have before the draft. In deep leagues with more than three wide receivers roster spots, he could be a solid back-end starter. I did not expect him to get drafted this high, but I have adjusted my rankings since he was drafted on day two.

Kimani Vidal

• Kimani Vidal moved up my rankings from #49 to #37.
• Vidal was drafted very late, falling to the 6th round, but he was drafted by a team with an open depth chart.  The Chargers have aging Gus Edwards and an injury-recovering J.K. Dobbins as their lead backs. Vidal had more than 4000 yards rushing and was consistently hyped as a sleeper by many scouts I follow, even though he played for a small school like Troy.  If Edwards falls off a cliff and Dobbins cannot bounce back from his Achilles surgery, Vidal could take their jobs. I'm sure Harbaugh will give him a chance to do so. Vidal has moved from a fifth-round player I hoped to draft late to a player I'll look to add at the round three-four turn.

Tyrone Tracy

• Tyrone Tracy moved up my rankings from #57 to #38.
• Tracy was not ranked in my first rookie rankings, which I released in February, but over the last months, he has moved up my board as several of the scouts I follow started talking him up. He's one of the oldest prospects in the class, having played six years in college, four at Iowa as a receiver and two at Purdue as a running back. The Giants drafted him at the end of the 5th round, where he will have an opportunity to be the change-of-pace back to Devin Singletary. Last year's pick, Eric Gray, did nothing to impress the Giants last season, so they drafted another back this year. His versatility and opportunity moved him up my rankings even more after the draft. He's another player I'm eager to draft at the round three-four turn.

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Fallers

Troy Franklin

• Troy Franklin moved down my rankings from #10 to #24.
• Franklin moved down most dynasty analysts' draft boards after his below-average performance at the Combine, but I stubbornly kept him as a first-rounder in my rankings because of his college production. I can't keep him there anymore after he fell to the fourth round of the NFL draft. At least the Broncos traded up to get him in the fourth round, reuniting him with his college quarterback on a team with an open wide receiver depth chart. Denver is a great landing spot for Franklin, even if he was drafted late. I'm still willing to draft him at the end of the second round ahead of guys who were drafted ahead of him in the NFL draft.

Adonai Mitchell

• Adonai Mitchell moved down my rankings from #11 to #19.
• I moved Mitchell down my rankings after his draft capital fell to 2.18, and he landed with the Colts.  The Colts have an alpha wide receiver in Michael Pittman and a productive slot with Josh Downs.  Their presence on the team will limit Mitchell's target share. Plus, I don't trust Anthony Richardson as a passer and know the Colts will run the ball more than most teams, including pass plays that turn into runs by Richardson.  I love Mitchell's talent, but I had to move him back from a first-round pick to a mid-second-round pick. 

Braelon Allen

• Braelon Allen moved down my rankings from #16 to #49.
• Allen took the biggest fall of any player on my draft board after falling to the fourth round of the draft and landing with the Jets, who have Breece Hall as their lead back and Israel Abanikanda as his backup.  I like Abanikanda more than Allen, and now I have to sour on them both. Every backup running back should be rostered in dynasty leagues and is likely to make spot starts sometime each year, but now I have no idea which of these two will become the backup to Hall. Allen is one of the biggest surprises of this class, falling from a top devy prospect after his freshman season at Wisconsin to a forgotten man in this draft.

Ja'Tavion Sanders

• Ja'Tavion Sanders moved down my rankings from #21 to #29.
• I like that Sanders landed with Carolina. He will find a role with the team quickly, though not used as an every-down tight end. He'll be a weapon in the passing game. His draft capital, however, concerned me and caused me to move him down my rankings as others with greater draft capital moved ahead of him. Ben Sinnot was drafted ahead of him and can be used in many more ways in Washington, making him my second-ranked tight end in this class ahead of Sanders now.

Malik Washington

• Malik Washington moved down my rankings from #27 to #35.
• To be fair, I had Washington ranked far higher than most dynasty analysts, and I likely still do after moving him down eight spots. I wanted him to land on a team with an open WR-2 spot and thought he would get drafted way earlier than he was in the 6th round. His falling to the 6th round really surprised me, but at least he was drafted by the Dolphins, who have a creative offensive coach. Coach Daniels seemed thrilled to select him in the sixth round. Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle have a lock on the target share in Miami, but Hill is getting older, and Waddle is often injured, so Washington can earn some starts this season or in the future if he proves something right away.  I'll still draft a lot of Washington, but I'll wait longer than I thought.

Devontez Walker

• Devontez Walker moved down my rankings from #30 to #45.
• I had Walker ranked much lower than most dynasty analysts already, but his landing spot in Baltimore moved him down even more. The Ravens re-signed Rashod Bateman last week, and Zay Flowers broke out during his rookie season last year.  Plus, Mark Andrews is Lamar Jackson's favorite target. Walker gives them the downfield speed they lack, but that role will be too limited to help dynasty managers. I was already out on Walker, thinking he was a limited player.  Now that he's on a team with a solid depth chart ahead of him, I'm definitely out on Walker.

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