Sat Apr 30th 2022

NFL Draft Fallout

The NFL draft is over, and I can finally factor draft capital and teams into my rookie rankings. I've updated my rankings in preparations for my rookie drafts that take place this month, with the first one starting this weekend. You, too, can use my rankings as you begin your rookie drafts. Happy draft season to you!

Overall, I was very disappointed with where many players landed in this class. It was already a weaker-than-normal rookie class. It's top-heavy but could have been deeper if the second-tier players landed on better teams and had higher draft capital. I have more negative things to say about this class than positive after the NFL draft, but there are several players whose dynasty stock is rising following the NFL draft. Here are some of my brief thoughts on how the NFL draft affected the dynasty values of the class of 2022.

Quarterbacks

This quarterback class was one of the worst in decades, and NFL teams treated them that way by only drafting one in the first round and none in the second round. Dynasty managers will follow suit this year in rookie drafts, even in superflex leagues. Every quarterback drafted will have to compete for a starting role on their teams and wait a year or several years to become startable in dynasty lineups.

Stock Up

• Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh 1.20) - His stock is rising after being the only quarterback drafted in the first round and the only rookie quarterback with a chance to begin the season as the starter. Mike Tomlin said this much in his press conference. Unlike most dynasty analysts, Pickett was my #1 ranked quarterback before the draft. He not only remains so after the draft, but he has lengthened the gap between the rest of the quarterbacks in this class, given where they were drafted.

Stock Down

• Malik Willis (Tennessee 3.22) - Willis was my third-ranked quarterback in this class before the draft, and he's my second-ranked quarterback today. Still, the gap between him and Pickett is more significant after he was not drafted until the third round and has a proven veteran ahead of him on the roster. Ryan Tannehill is signed for two more years, though they could cut him after this season and suffer an $18,800,000 dead cap hit. Willis is a talented prospect, but he will have to back up Tannehill for at least one year, and he does not have the draft capital to be guaranteed a chance as the future starter.

Holding Steady

• Desmond Ridder (Atlanta 3.10) - Ridder landed in a pretty good spot in Atlanta and will only have to beat out a very unproven Marcus Mariota to get playtime. Given his draft capital, it should be Mariota's job to lose, but he only has a dead cap hit of $2,500,000 if Atlanta cuts him after this season. I imagine Ridder will get some playing time this year, whether Mariota is injured or not.
• Matt Corral (Carolina 3.30) - Sam Darnold, the assumed starter in Carolina, still has far more draft capital than Corral and will have a leg up on him in the quarterback competition. I'm less confident in Corall's ability to adjust to the NFL game, so he'll take some time to develop, but that's what I would have thought about him no matter where he was drafted.

Holding Out Hope

• Sam Howell (Washington 5.1) - Howell was my second-ranked quarterback before the draft, so I was shocked to see him fall to the draft's fifth round. Draft capital aside, I am hopeful about his opportunities to beat Taylor Heinicke for the backup role in Washington behind Carson Wentz, who has played the last few seasons terribly. He's not draftable except in deep superflex leagues, but I'll watch the preseason games closely and add him to my scout teams for sure.

Running Backs

There were only two running backs who I thought would become immediate starters on NFL teams before the NFL draft and after the draft, it's still the case. A few players were drafted by teams with mediocre or older starters ahead of them, so they will get to compete for a starting role by midseason. However, based on their talent and landing spots, the rest of this running back class are role players at best and need several injuries to see the field.

Stock Up

• Breece Hall (NY Jets 2.4) - Hall could not have moved higher in my rookie rankings, but he could have fallen a tiny bit if he was drafted by a team with a proven veteran ahead of him. That's not the case in New York. I have some concern for the Jets because they employ a two-back system, but I think they'll quickly realize how much better Hall is than Michael Carter. He's still my #1 ranked rookie.
• Kenneth Walker (Seattle 2.9) - I love his draft capital and love that he landed with a run-first team. If, after the Russell Wilson trade, Seattle is trying to become the team they had with Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, Walker is just the perfect guy for the job. I think Rashaad Penny will get the first opportunity to start the season, but by midseason, Walker will overtake him in touches. Penny is just on a one-year deal, so Walker is already a more considerable investment for the team and will have a significant role on a run-first team that also drafted quality offensive linemen in the draft.
• James Cook (Buffalo 2.31) - As the predraft process continued, Cook moved higher and higher up my draft board, and after being the third running back drafted, he's moved into first-round consideration. I now have him #14 overall. Devin Singletary is constantly underrated, and I think he'll continue to be the lead back for Buffalo, but Cook could be his partner in a new one-two-punch for the Bills. 
• Brian Robinson (Washington 3.34) - He joined a crowded backfield with an excellent passing down back, J.D. McKissic, and a back with higher draft capital, Antonio Gibson. Plus, they drafted Jaret Patterson in last year's draft. That said, Robinson's third-round draft capital indicates that he'll have a chance to work himself into the mix in Washington. Draft capital combined with the poor draft capital of the running backs I had ranked in his predraft range have caused me to move him from #35 to #20 in my post-draft rankings.
• Rachaad White (Tampa Bay 3.37) - With Thomas Jones gone and Ke'Shawn Vaughn not proving much this far, White has every chance to be the immediate backup to Leonard Fournette. Fournette did sign a three-year contract with the Buccaneers, but he is getting older and could benefit by sharing the load with a younger player. Both backs are great in the passing game, so they won't have completely different roles, but they can share the load. If Fournette gets injured, White could have the job to himself.
• Dameon Pierce (Houston 4.2) - I was very down on Pierce during the predraft process because I did not like his overall college production at Florida. I had him ranked #61 in this class. However, his decent draft capital and landing spot in Houston, where he only has to outplay Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead, have caused me to move him up to #27 in this class, which I assume will still be a lot lower than other analysts. I think Marlon Mack can beat him out, but I still have to hedge my bets.
• Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta 5.8) - While his draft capital is not fantastic, his landing spot is excellent. Cordarrelle Patterson was the best running back in Atlanta last year, playing better than Mike Davis. Patterson can't handle the full-time role. Nor can Damien Williams, who they signed this offseason. On the other hand, Allgeier could be an every-down back for the Falcons. He's moved up from #33 to #36 in my post-draft rookie rankings.

Stock Down

• Pierre Strong (New England 4.22) - Last week, I wrote about Strong as one of the late-round guys I would target in rookie drafts. I planned to reach up to get him ahead of his ADP, but after landing in New England, I'll have to wait until he hits his ADP, which should fall even further since he has two talented backs ahead of him in New England and the Patriots also draft Kevin Harris, another one of my late-round targets. I'm sad that he did not land a team with less running back competition.
• Jerome Ford (Cleveland 5.13) - Unlike most analysts, Ford was my #9 ranked player overall before the NFL draft, but now his draft capital and landing spot have dropped him down to #40 in my rookie rankings. If he had fifth-round draft capital but landed on a team with only one or two running backs ahead of him, I would not have dropped him as far, but Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D'Ernest Johnson are too big of an impediment to Ford, unfortunately.

Holding Out Hope

• Isaiah Spiller (LA Chargers 4.18) - In a strange way, I like the landing spot for Spiller in LA. Austin Ekeler is irreplaceable as the starter, but Spiller could be a great backup and play better than Justin Jackson did in his spot starts over the last few seasons. I'm not going to reach for Spiller, and his stock has fallen considerably in the predraft and draft process, but I hope to target him in the third round of rookie drafts.

Wide Receivers

Wide receivers were the strength of this rookie class, and the NFL draft proved that point when nearly one-third of the first 64 players drafted being receivers. The top-tier receivers landed in decent spots, but their dynasty value could not change much based on the teams that drafted them because they are too talented for it to matter. Landing spot mattered more for the second and third-tier receivers, and some landed in more favorable situations than others.

Stock Up

• Drake London (Atlanta 1.8) - I expected the Falcons to draft Garrett Wilson as the first wide receiver in the draft, but they went with Drake London instead, hoping they found a player to become their next Julio Jones. I was lower on Drake during the predraft process, favoring some of the other players drafted in the first round ahead of him, but now that he was the first receiver drafted and landed on a roster with no competition, I have moved Drake up in my rankings. I'm still concerned about his quarterback play, but I hope he can win by becoming a big and easy target for Mariota or Ridder to hit. He and Kyle Pitts should dominate targets in Atlanta's passing game.
• Treylon Burks (Tennessee 1.18) - The biggest surprise of the draft was when the Titans traded A.J. Brown to Philadelphia and selected Treylon Burks, who instantly became the WR-1 on the team. Tennessee will be very motivated to show that this was not a terrible decision, so Burks will get fed. I wavered back and forth throughout the predraft season between Garrett and Burks as my #1 receiver in the class. His draft capital, alongside the fact that he was, in essence, traded up for, caused me to rank him as my #1 in my post-draft rankings. 
• Christian Watson (Green Bay 2.2) - The predraft hype on Watson came true, and he was drafted at the top of the second round by a team that needs starting wide receivers. Watson will be a grand experiment, given that players from smaller schools with not very solid production profiles rarely get drafted this high. Aaron Rodgers is notoriously hesitant to target rookies and players who cannot get on the same page as him. Watson's draft capital and the open roster in Green Bay have now solidified Watson as a first-round rookie draft pick.
• George Pickens (Pittsburgh 2.20) - The entire predraft process, I have been less willing to move Pickens up my rankings because the distance between his breakout first year and his two injury-riddled years was too much for me to forgive. Plus, there were mounting character concerns with Pickens. However, after gaining second-round draft capital and getting drafted by a team with a track record of hitting on receivers in the draft, I have finally conceded and moved him up to #9 in my rankings. It's still a step of faith, in my opinion, but it's as good as any in that area of the draft because the players I have ranked around him also have many questions.
• Alec Pierce (Indianapolis 2.21) - Pierce has been one of the guys rising in my rankings during the predraft season, and his second-round draft capital and landing spot have caused me to move him from #27 to #21 in my rankings. Michael Pittman has the WR-1 role shored up, but the WR-2 role is up for grabs. As an Ashton Dulin truther, I was disappointed by this pick, but Pierce should have every chance to beat out Dulin, an undrafted free agent. Matt Ryan still has plenty in the tank to make the young Colts receivers better than the last string of quarterbacks they've started in recent years, too.
• Skyy Moore (Kansas City 2.22) - The Chiefs waited on wide receivers until they finally drafted Moore. Wide receiver targets are wide open after Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami. Moore, Juju Smith Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman have to fill in the gap, and Moore could quickly become the most-targeted wide receiver on the team. Moore was flirting with the back-end of the first-round or early second round of drafts before the NFL draft. Now he's firmly in the first round.
• Romeo Doubs (Green Bay 4.27) - Doubs was the second receiver drafted by the Packers, who, like the Chiefs, have targets to fill after trading Davante Adams. Doubs played at a smaller school (Nevada) like Christian Watson (North Dakota State), so both players were not the highest regarded recruits but displayed enough in college to get drafted by the Packers. I would not be surprised if Doubs ends up a better fantasy producer than Watson, and managers can draft him far later than Watson. I have Doubs ranked #25, but I may prefer to reach for him in the second round once I'm actually on the clock.

Stock Down

• Wan'Dale Robinson (NY Giants 2.11) - I loved his college production and was intrigued to see where he landed in the draft, but I did not like the landing spot in New York, even though the draft capital is excellent. The only thing that could change my mind is if the Giant trade Kadarius Toney. If he's on the roster, I feel like they have the same role, and they'll compete with Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay. I really like Robinson, but his landing spot is not helpful for his dynasty value.
• Tyquan Thorton (New England 2.18) - I had to move Thorton up in my rankings after his surprising draft capital, but I won't be drafting him in any of my rookie drafts. The fastest wide receivers at the Combine rarely show much in the NFL, and New England is awful at drafting wide receivers. I did move him up in my rankings, but not in the range other dynasty managers have him.
• Calvin Austin (Pittsburgh 4.33) - I believe that Austin can be a big-play threat in the NFL, but I don't think he can do so consistently, especially on a team that is loaded at wide receiver and drafted a better player, George Pickens, two round before Austin. It could be that the Steelers opt not to pay Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool and see Pickens and Austin as their future replacements, so they don't have to pay big contracts to their receivers, but Pickens and Austin may lack the opportunity to prove their value in time to make those decisions.

Holding Steady

• Garrett Wilson (NY Jets 1.10) - I moved Garrett down a few spots after landing in New York. It's not a big knock on him, but I wanted him to land on a team where he could instantly become the WR-1.  I am not sure who I will have ranked higher once I intergrate rookies into my positional rankings, Elijah Moore or Wilson. I'm also not sure Zach Wilson has what it takes to carry the Jets offense, but they having given him every weapon possible, so we'll know  by the end of this season.
• Chris Olave (New Orleans 1.11) - I kept him about the same in my rankings after getting drafted by the Saints. If Jameis Winston can protect the ball and keep the offense moving, Olave should have productive season and career in New Orleans. He's a great paring opposite Michael Thomas.
• Jahan Dotson (Washington 1.16) - Dotson is more fitting as a WR-2, so I did not dock him in my rankings after getting drafted by Washington to play opposite Terry McLaurin. I am sure I will have him ranked higher than most analysts and dynasty managers, but I already did. I had him ranked #7 before the draft, and that's where I have him ranked after the draft.
• Jalen Tolbert (Dallas 3.24) - I moved Tolbert up a few spots after the Cowboys drafted him. He could start right away in three-receiver sets or even two receiver sets to start the season if Michael Gallup cannot start the season. Tolbert is a high-upside second-round rookie pick. I hope to draft him in several leagues.

Holding Out Hope

• David Bell (Cleveland 3.35) - He may have fallen significantly after a poor predraft performance, but I still believe in a player with his college production level. His landing spot in Cleveland is perfect. He can become their next Jarvis Landry.  I still see him as a first-round draft pick even though he had third-round draft capital and many other wide receivers were drafted ahead of him in the NFL draft.  He remains my #12 post-draft ranked player.

Tight Ends

This rookie tight end class was pretty weak, with only two players I would be willing to draft before the fifth round of rookie drafts. After the NFL draft, I added one more player to the list of guys I'd draft before the fifth round. I don't imagine I'd keep any of the fifth-round rookie tight ends in leagues without taxi squads after the roster-cut date. Most of the tight ends with upside were drafted to teams with a veteran starter ahead of them, so this class will take a long time to be fantasy relevant.

Stock Up

• Jelani Woods (Indianapolis 3.9) - Woods turned his beastly Combine performance into much higher draft capital than I imagined before the draft. The Colts love to pass to tight ends and now have two of the largest tight ends in the league between him and Mo Alie-Cox. As I've written about before, Woods could be an instant red-zone target, and I suspect he'll be a part of the Colts' offensive plan from day one, at least in the red zone.
• Greg Dulcich (Denver 3.16) - He has tougher competition than Woods in that he has to beat out veteran Albert Okwuegbunam for playing time. However, I still consider his stock up after the NFL draft because of his draft capital and landing spot. I don't think Dulcich will make an immediate impact, but I believe by the end of the season, he'll prove to be a better tight end than Albert O. He's still my second-ranked tight in this class after the draft, with Jelani Woods third.

Stock Down

• Trey McBride (Arizona 2.23) - He's still my first ranked tight end in this class, but after the NFL draft, his stock has fallen a bit in my eyes. I wanted to see him go to a team without a strong veteran ahead of him and a team that has fewer high-quality receivers so that he could be a more significant part of the offense. Landing in Arizona presented both of these problems, with Zach Ertz ahead of him at the position and DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and Rondale Moore cutting into his targets. He's still the top tight end in my rookie rankings, but he's moved down in my overall rankings and is much closer to Dulcich.

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