Tue Apr 18th 2023

"My Guys" In This Year's Class

I recently made my final update to my pre-draft rookie rankings. After doing so, I looked at the Dynasty League Football's (DLF) rookie rankings to compare my rankings with theirs. I did this to see which players I am higher on than their consensus rankings. This process helps me determine "my guys." Meaning guys that I am higher on than they are, and, thus, guys I will likely draft often in rookie drafts.

More than ever, draft capital will change a lot with this year's class. So I will shuffle my rankings after the NFL draft. That said, over the last month, I have listened to scouts and monitored mock drafts enough to feel comfortable writing about the differences I currently see in my pre-draft rankings compared to those at DLF.

Here are the players for whom I have at least six spots higher in my rankings, meaning I would draft them at least one half-round earlier than dynasty managers using DLF's rookie rankings.

Michael Mayer

• DLF has him ranked 16th, but I have him ranked 10th.
• Mayer did not test as well as many of the other tight ends in this class at the Combine, but it has not affected my view of Mayer. He was the second-ranked tight-end recruit in the country when he signed with Notre Dame and performed like it from day one. He has 450, 840, and 809 yards receiving to go with 2, 7, and 9 touchdowns over his three years. He's a can't-miss prospect that proved it in college and will do the same in the NFL. He can do everything a tight end is asked to do in the NFL and will be a three-down starter right away in the NFL. No matter which team drafts him, I'd confidently draft Mayer in the first round.

Sean Tucker

• DLF has him ranked 23rd, but I have him ranked 14th.
• The second tier of this running back class is muddy, and there will be no consensus in analyst rankings. Still, I have Tucker at the top of this tier since I posted my first rookie rankings in February. His highlight tapes won me over from the first time I watched them. He's my favorite kind of running back with his 5' 10'" 210 lb. frame and his excellent vision and shiftiness between the tackles. He's a tough runner with breakaway speed and got more involved in the passing game each year of his college career. He tends to carry the ball outside too often, but I've seen him do great work between the tackles and think he can be coached up to stop trying to hit the corner. If Tucker is drafted on day two, I'll keep him in my rankings as an early second-round pick. If other running backs get drafted ahead of him and he falls to day three, I'll consider moving him back but not out of the second round.

Dalton Kincaid

• DLF has him ranked 20th, but I have him ranked 13th.
• Daniel Jeremiah has contributed the most to my willingness to see Kincaid as an early second-round pick in rookie drafts. He consistently mocks Kincaid in the first round of mock drafts and often has him drafted ahead of Michael Mayer. Kincaid is not as proven and polished at all aspects of the tight end position, but he can be a very effective weapon in the passing game for a team that knows how to use him that way. He had eight touchdowns each of his last two seasons at Oregon State and averaged 13.2 yards per catch in his college career. He's a downfield weapon and will get drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. If he's drafted by a team that I am confident can make him a crucial part of their passing game, I'll keep him here are an early second-round pick, but if I'm less confident in the team and offensive system that drafts him, I'll move him further back in the second round where the guys at DLF have him ranked.

Israel Abanikanda

• DLF has him ranked 24th, but I have him ranked 15th.
• Next to Sean Tucker, Abanikanda was my next favorite second-tier running back to watch on tape, and his junior season was one of the most outrageous of the class. Abanikanda amassed 1577 total yards and 21 touchdowns in his last year at Pittsburgh, including a six-touchdown game against Virginia Tech. He has excellent vision and breakaway speed. He runs a little upright but still breaks tackles often and was less involved in the passing game than I would like. I've also heard scouts say that he struggles in pass protection. That said, he strikes me as a good teammate and a guy who will put in the work to get better. His teammates were consistently rallying around him during games. He's a competitor, and I hope he's a day-two draft pick who can share a workload with a veteran while he improves. If he's a day-three pick, I will move him back into the early third round, but I'd like to draft him in the middle of the second round if he's a day-two pick.

Xavier Hutchinson

• DLF has him ranked 45th, but I have him ranked 22nd.
• I am way higher on Hutchinson than the pros at DLF, and the discrepancy makes me want to reconsider my position after the draft, but here is why I have Hutchinson ranked so high. First, there are not many receivers in this draft with his size, 6' 2" and 203 lbs. Some NFL teams will target the bigger pass catchers for their team's needs. Hutchinson will likely get drafted early on day three as a result. He transferred to Iowa State from Blinn College but proved himself right away and improved every season with 64, 84, and 107 catches and 771, 987, and 1171 yards in his three years there. His low touchdown totals, four, five, and six, are the only knock on his production profile. Finally, I saw him with my own eyes this season when he tore up my Texas Longhorns even though we knew every pass was coming his way. I left that game thinking this guy would be on one of my dynasty teams someday. If I'm wrong and he's not drafted early in day three, I'll move him back quite a bit but never as far back as 45th, where DLF has him ranked.

Kayshon Boutte

• DLF has him ranked 31st, but I have him ranked 25th.
• Everyone moved Boutte down their rookie rankings after his unproductive end to his college career and his poor performance at the Combine and pro day. His character and work ethic are rightly being questioned right now, and he deserves to get moved from a first-round pick to a third-round pick at this point, but that's as far as I am willing to let him fall simply because he was once thought to be a top devy receiver. In the early third round of rookie drafts, I'll take a gamble with a guy who was the second-ranked wide receiver in the nation in his recruiting class and had his best collegiate season as a freshman.

Charlie Jones

• DLF has him ranked 47th, but I have him ranked 27th.
• Again, there's a two-round gap between my ranking of Jones and the DLF ranking. If Jones's draft capital is worse than I expect, I'll move him down quite a bit, but I will never drop him as low as DLF currently ranks him. Jones benefited from a terrific offensive system at Purdue, where he transferred in for his final season. Still, he led the nation in receptions with 110 and had 1361 yards and 12 touchdowns, and not just anyone can do that. It's high praise and not a fair comparison, but I got Cooper Kupp or Julian Edelman vibes while watching Jones's highlights. He's a player I will be glad to take a chance on before other dynasty managers will, even if I have to reach the third round instead of the fourth.

A.T. Perry

• DLF has him ranked 40th, but I have him ranked 28th.
• Perry is another player like Hutchinson, who is older but had two very productive seasons to end his college career, only Perry was a touchdown-scoring monster with 15 and 11 touchdowns in his final two seasons. He's also one of the few big receivers in this year's class at 6' 4" and 198 lbs. His size, which contributes to his effectiveness in the red zone, will get him drafted higher than most expect. I predict that he will get drafted early on day three. If so, he'll remain an early third-round pick for me. If not, I could move him down to about where the pros at DLF have him ranked in the early fourth round.

Mohamed Ibrahim

• DLF has him ranked 48th, but I have him ranked 30th.
• On this one, I'll admit that I need to move Ibrahim down, but since it is where I had him ranked when doing this exercise, I'll explain why I still like Ibrahim even if I should move him down. My primary reason for liking Ibrahim more than others is his college production. He played five years, broke out as a freshman, overcame an Achilles injury and surgery, and still had 320 carries in his senior season. Still, his injury history, older age, and 867 college carries will cause NFL teams to be more cautious in drafting him, and he's likely off the board for many teams. He'll get drafted far later than I wish he would, so I need to factor that in more and move him down my rankings, but I doubt I'll move him down to 48th, where DLF has him ranked no matter his team or draft capital. He's still a guy I'd like to take a stab at in the early to mid-fourth round of rookie drafts.

Parker Washington

• DLF has him ranked 57th, but I have him ranked 32nd.
• I was shocked that DLF ranked Washington 25 spots lower than I do. They think he's barely draftable, but I would like to draft him in the third round. His college production was average, but I liked what I saw on his highlight tapes enough to believe he was better than his stats would indicate. He also plays for a program at Penn State that has produced many NFL starting wide receivers in the last ten years. That's anecdotal, but it makes a difference with NFL teams and their willingness to draft players from programs they trust.

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