Tue Mar 1st 2022

How I Go About Ranking Rookies

It's NFL Combine week - one of the most enjoyable weeks of the offseason for Dynasty Freeks! I record and watch every minute of it and use the drills and measurements to start what I call "stage two" of my rookie evaluation process. It's the first pivot point in stage two, leading to changes in my dynasty rankings.

This week, I thought I would write about my rookie ranking process. It's a process I've grown to love and one I'd highly recommend for fellow Dynasty Freeks.

Stage One: Forming My Own Opinion

As a dynasty manager, I enjoy forming my own opinion about players first so that I can resist falling prey to groupthink or the hive mind in the dynasty community. Stage one is my favorite stage because I form my own opinions and make my own rookie rankings before listening to or comparing myself to others. I'll listen to others in stage two, but first, I do the following things to evaluate the rookie class for myself.

Film

• Grading rookies is not my full-time job, so I don't have time to watch every play of every game for each prospect, but I spend many hours watching highlight films on each player. Doing this allows me to see what the players do well, which is enough to answer the question many NFL scouts ask, "How does this player win?" I will learn more in stage two about the weaknesses of each player from the full-time scouts and analysts, but first, I want to see with my own eyes how they win, and watching the highlight film allows me to do that.

Production

• After watching the highlight film, I pull up the prospects' college stats to see their production profile. I look to see how their career progressed - if they broke out early, steadily progressed, or only had a late-year breakout season. I see how they compared to other players on their team and what percentage of the offensive share they had in yards, touchdowns, touches, and targets. Production profiles are a significant way to evaluate prospects. It's one form of analytics, which is why in stage two, I will describe the variety of people I listen to after forming my own opinion on their production profile.

Pedigree

• I do one final thing in stage one after analyzing film and production. While far less valuable than film and production, I like to know prospects' pedigree. Meaning I want to know 247Sports Composite score as a college recruit, where they ranked in their recruiting class overall, and which schools recruited them. Players who were highly touted recruits and performed like it in college get an extra bump in my rankings, and highly touted recruits that underperformed in college get an asterisk by their name, allowing them to hold a little more value than they would be based on their production profile.

Stage Two: Listening To Others' Opinions

As a person who does this part-time, it would be very foolish not to listen to full-time NFL scouts and analysts while creating my rookie rankings. I can listen to people who have graded NFL prospects for decades, and NFL teams use their services. There are also people well connected with NFL teams, and they know how NFL scouts and general managers grade players in the rookie class. I listen, read, and take in all I can from them in stage two.

Combine

• While I love watching the NFL Combine, I place far less value on it than most dynasty analysts, but it is the first pivot point in stage two of my process. I believe the film and production matter far more than athleticism and testing, so I don't let players' athletic profiles affect my rookie rankings too much. I rarely don't dock a highly ranked rookie for a lousy performance at the Combine, but I will slightly increase the value to lower-ranked players who appear more athletic than rookies in their tier. I don't care about many of the drills, but I do value the Three-Cone drill for running backs and smaller wide receivers, vertical jump for bigger wide receivers, and the 40-Yard Dash for tight ends. Other than that, the measurements on drills don't matter much to me. However, I do value watching the passing drills and the gauntlet for wide receivers. I like seeing how the ball comes off the quarterbacks' hands and value seeing them all one after another to compare their arm strength and accuracy. I also want to see which running backs run good routes and have good hands. The gauntlet is my favorite drill in the Combine, and I give an edge to receivers who catch passes smoothly with their hands and not their bodies and don't drop passes. Those are the things I will look for this week, and I will adjust my rankings slightly as I do.

Scouts and Analysts

• Until the NFL draft, I will consume myself with content from scouts and analysts. I listen to podcasts mostly, but I will also buy a few scouting publications to read about the grades scouts and analysts have placed on players. I specifically aim to get three bits of knowledge from the professionals in the NFL draft industry. First, I want to hear from the film guys. Like I said before, I make time to watch highlights to see how players win, but in stage two, I want to hear from people who have watched every player of every game to get their opinion on the players' strengths and weaknesses. Secondly, I want to hear from the analytics guys. I want to hear from the professionals who put together production profiles and give historical comparisons to players throughout history. Some brilliant people can put together a rookie draft board based solely on data. I value their expertise. Thirdly, I want to hear from those connected with NFL teams. The bits of knowledge dropped by those in the know are extremely valuable when recalibrating my rookie rankings, which brings me to the third step in stage two.

Mock Drafts

• It would be irresponsible not to include NFL Mock Draft as a factor when ranking a rookie class. More on this in a moment, but draft capital is one of the rookie evaluation's final and most essential parts. Mock Drafts, especially those created by well-connected scouts and analysts, predict draft capital and are a significant factor in changes I make to my rookie rankings in stage two.

Stage Three: Witnessing NFL Teams' Opinions

The most significant changes in my rankings occur after the final piece of the puzzle is found, and NFL teams tell us what they think of the rookie class. That said, my processes in stages one and two get my rankings to a place where draft capital is built into it. The only missing piece that is often a surprise is the landing spot, which is the final part of my process.  

Draft Capital

• It matters where players are drafted. It makes a difference in how much the NFL teams invest in the player. I don't see a vast difference between first and second-round prospects as far as dynasty value. Second-round draft picks regularly outperform first-round draft picks, and both are heavy investments. Third-round draftees are more volatile, but they often hold or exceed their dynasty value, too, especially when drafted to a team with little competition on the depth chart. It's the day three draft picks who really need a lot to go their way to make a fantasy impact in their careers. By the time the NFL Draft begins, I have a pretty solid idea which players will get drafted in rounds one and two, but I'm often surprised by players that end up getting drafted in round three and the number of players that are not drafted in rounds one to three. As a result, the most significant movement in my rookie rankings based on draft capital occurs with those drafted in the third round and those who did not get drafted in rounds one, two, or three. I make a lot of adjustments in my rankings among players that fit those categories after the NFL draft.

Landing Spot

• The final factor in my rookie rankings process is landing spot when we know what team drafted a player. Several things make landing spot a significant pivot point in my final rookie rankings because landing spot determines so much. It tells us what competition he faces on his new team's depth chart. If the competition is weak, his value goes up, but if he faces stiff competition, his value goes down, especially among players drafted in the third round or more. It tells us what offensive scheme he'll play under and with what kind of coach. It tells us what kind of quarterback will be leading the team and be tied to his fantasy production. Landing spot also tells us which front office drafted him, and we all know some teams have proven far more effective in their scouting departments than others. I believe the cream will rise to the top among the elite of the rookie class, so I will not move elite players too much based on their landing spot. However, among the good but not great players, landing spots can cause their final rookie ranking to change quite a bit.

I hope you enjoyed reading about my process. I hope you'd try it out yourself. It's what makes dynasty leagues so fun. Maximize the best part of the offseason by making your own rankings early and tweak them as the NFL offseason moves from the Combine to the NFL draft because before you know it, we'll be in rookie season. In your rookie draft, you can simply look at my rankings or the rankings of the more prominent analysts out there, or you can have your very own rankings, which is much more fun. Be a Dynasty Freek, and give it a try!

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