Tue Mar 8th 2022

10 Rookies Rising In My Rankings Post Combine

As I wrote about last week, the NFL Combine marks the first step in phase two of my rookie rankings process. I watched all of the Combine coverage and drills this past weekend and have adjusted my rankings. In this article, I share about ten players who moved up in my rookie rankings after performing well at the Combine. I care far more about college production than athletic testing, but these players' athletic profiles are strong enough to move up my rankings, especially as some players' Combine performance caused me to move them down in my rankings. 

Kenneth Walker - From #13 to #4

• Over the last few months, I've had a hard time deciding which running back in this class to rank second behind Breece Hall. Walker's excellent Combine firmed up my decision, and he moved up to become the second-ranked running back in this class, and I moved him up to #4 overall in the class. I was stunned to see him run a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash, especially at his size, and he surpassed the 10-foot threshold on the broad jump with a 10'2" leap. I was disappointed that the running back class all decided not to run the three-cone drill, but I hope he will do it at his pro day. What I liked most about Walker, though, was how well he performed in passing drills. His biggest knock as a prospect was his lack of involvement as a pass-catcher. He only caught 19 passes in his three-year college career. It's not fair to compare Walker to Jonathan Taylor, but in Taylor's class, what I watched most closely at the Combine was his ability in the passing drills. Like Taylor in the 2020 Combine, Walker performed great in passing drills and moved up in my rankings as a result. He's the definitive RB #2 in this class for me.

Chris Olave - From #10 to #5

• Olave was already a first-round draft pick in my eyes and the eyes of every other dynasty analyst, but his Combine performance moved even further up in my rankings, as have credible Mock Drafts that constantly predict that he'll get drafted in the first round. Olave only did a few of the drills that were measured. His 4.39 40-yard dash was his best drill. He had an acceptable broad jump at 10'4" and a below-average vertical jump. As I said last week, I care about vertical jump numbers for big receivers, but not for smaller prospects like Olave, who is 6' and 187 pounds. He will win in the NFL with quickness, good hands, and savvy. I hope he runs the three-cone drill at his pro day to complete his profile, but his quickness is evident enough on tape. What I liked watching most during the Combine was his route-running during passing drills and his hands and speed in the gauntlet drills. He looked more polished than the other prospects when watching them side by side. He's now my third-ranked wide receiver in the class, just behind Treylon Burks and his college teammate, Garrett Wilson.

Christian Watson - From #20 to #11

• Watson only did three of the measurable. drills, but he was outstanding in all of them. He ran a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash (6th in the class), jumped 11'4" in the broad jump (1st in the class), and jumped 38.5" in the vertical jump (6th in the class). The biggest question about Watson as a prospect from a smaller school (North Dakota State) was how he would look compared to more highly recruited players from the power programs. Athletically, he answered that question at the Combine. Not only that, he looked great in all of the passing drills and the gauntlet. I think his Combine performance will make him a second or third-round draft pick in the NFL draft. I think I will have Watson ranked much higher than other analysts and managers in my leagues, so I should have a lot of Watson this year. The only thing that could hinder him now is getting drafted by a team with two star receivers on the roster ahead of him.

Greg Dulcich - From #27 to #21

• Dulcich was already my second-ranked tight end in this class, but he moved himself up in my rankings after clearly looking like the second best tight end on the field at the Combine. At 243 pounds, he ran the 5th fastest 40-yard dash (4.69), tied for the 5th highest vertical jump (34"), finished 2nd in the broad jump (10'2"), and 4th in the three-cone drill (7.05). More importantly, he looked the part in all the passing drills and drew the attention of Daniel Jeremiah and all the talking heads covering the event on TV. The pundits speak from what they see, but they often also talk from what they hear from NFL teams. They consider Dulcich the second-best tight end in this class, and I think NFL teams will too. I was the only dynasty analyst I know who had Dulcich ranked as the second tight end in this class behind Trey McBride, but now many others will follow suit. It's always nice when the Combine and those covering it confirm an opinion I already shared.

James Cook - From #29 to #22

• I already had Cook ranked in the third tier of running backs in this class, higher than many other analysts had him ranked. His Combine performance and nuggets dropped by Daniel Jeremiah throughout the broadcast caused me to move Cook up a bit more in my rankings. He was among the top of the class in the 40-yard dash (4.42) and broad jump (10'4"), two of the measurements I value for running back. Hopefully, he will do a three-cone drill at his pro day too. The on-field drills and passing drills made him stand out in my eyes, though. Everything he did in those drills looked smooth and effortless. He's one of the prospects I put an asterisk by during this process because he was such a highly ranked recruit in his high school class with a .9786 ranking by 247Sports. Injuries and sharing a backfield with a running back, Zamir White, who ranked even higher than him as a recruit, resulted in a lack of production at Georgia. However, when I watched highlights of Cook and White, I liked Cook's film a lot more than White's. I think he has a better chance to become a rotational back in the NFL, and I'm now willing to draft him in the second round of rookie drafts instead of the third.

Calvin Austin III - From #33 to #24

• Austin is the kind of prospect I usually fade in my rookie rankings. He's too small at 5'8" and 170 pounds and went to a school, Memphis, that's system inflates the stats of their players who rarely become fantasy relevant. That said, Austin's Combine scores were off the charts, meaning some NFL teams will take a chance on him, and many dynasty managers will do the same. I'll likely have Austin ranked further back than most dynasty analysts, but I did have to move him up from a third-round pick to the last player I would pick in the second round. His 4.32 40-yard dash and 6.65 three-cone drill demanded it. Let alone his 11'3" broad jump (2nd in the class) and 39" vertical jump (3rd in the class). Because of those numbers, I'd be willing to take a chance on a smaller player with his athleticism, even though I usually shy away from players like him.

Khalil Shakir - From #35 to #27

• Shakir weighed in bigger than I thought he looked on film, so that was the first thing that caught my attention, and seeing him run side by side with the other receivers in this class confirmed it. He measured in at 6' and 196 pounds. He was average among this class in all of the measurable drills, but I liked the way he looked in the immeasurable drills with his route running and pass-catching. The crew covering the Combine on TV had good things to say about him too. That was enough for me to move him up within the third round, where I already had him. Several players moved down in my ranking to contribute to his rise in my rankings. Now that I've seen him side by side with other prospects, I decided that I'd prefer to take a shot on his upside more than some of the third-round prospects I had ranked ahead of him before the Combine.

Pierre Strong - From #51 to #33

• Strong is also a player I wanted to see stacked up against bigger-program prospects. Strong's 1823 total yards and 18 touchdowns for South Dakota State are impressive no matter his competition, but I wanted to see how he looked beside the less productive by more highly recruited backs. He passed my eye test on the immeasurable drills and finished tied for first in the class with a 4.37 40-yard dash and 5'11" and 207 pounds. He tied for 6th in the class with a 10'4" broad jump too. His Combine performance, coupled with his productivity in his final season, caused me to move him up 18 spots in my rankings. He's the player I moved up the most and a player I would love to draft in the third round. He could be a career backup, but I believe he also could be the Elijah Mitchell of this draft class.

Kevin Austin - From #45 to #37

• I did not have Austin ranked high in this class because he only had one modestly productive season at Notre Dame and relied on big plays to do it. He's still a player I'm not likely to draft, but his outstanding Combine demanded that I move him into the fourth round of my rookie rankings. He was in the middle of the pack with a 4.43 40-yard dash, but he was at the very top of the class in the other drills. He tied for third on the vertical jump (39"), fifth on the broad jump (11'0"), and second in the three-cone (6.71). I could not help but compare him to Chase Claypool from Notre Dame, who had a very similar last season in college but an excellent Combine before having a great rookie year with the Steelers. I made a mistake ranking Claypool too low that year, so I felt I could be making the same mistake here if I didn't consider Austin early in the fourth round this year.

Alec Pierce - From #50 to #39

• Pierce's excellent Combine was one of the biggest surprises to me. Pierce seemed like a player at Cincinnati that just won with his size on vertical routes and contested catches. His 6'3" and 211-pound frame led to his on-field success, not his athleticism, so I thought. He proved to be quite an athlete, however, at the Combine. With bigger receivers, the vertical jump means more to me, and he finished first in his class with a jump of 40.5." His three-cone drill was impressive for a man his size at 7.13 (6th in the class), and his 4.41 speed also surprised me. He has the size and athleticism to play in the NFL and increased his draft capital by performing well in the Combine. I still think he will be a day-three NFL draft pick, but if he's drafted to a team with an opening outside receiver spot, he could carve out a role with a team. I'd be willing to draft him in the fourth round of rookie drafts now instead of the fifth, where I had him before the Combine.

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