Tue May 30th 2023

Grading My "Good Times" Rookie Draft

My "Good Times" league is my first dynasty league, which we started in 2015. While it was the first dynasty league I started, it's become my least favorite league since, historically, half the owners are inactive in the offseason. Two years ago, three teams left the league, and we had a dispersal draft that brought in more active managers and has made the league more fun than it has been in the past.

Amazingly, one of the inactive managers won the championship the first four years in a row. I have never seen a team in more than two championships in a row in my dynasty leagues. A different team has won the championship every year since, including my team in 2020. It's too bad this league is my least favorite because it is my best dynasty roster. Last year I was the number one seed in the playoffs but lost in the semi-finals, leaving me with the 8th pick in this year's rookie draft in this ten-team league. There are few trades in this league, so I have the 8th pick in each round of the rookie draft.

For context, it's a ten-team, half-PPR league with thirty-man rosters during the season (35 after the rookie draft with a cut date after the last preseason game). We start ten players - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, and 1 DST. It's an old-school league, but my first dynasty league, so I am happy to keep it going and hope to win a few championships in the next few years.

Here is how the draft played out.

Round One

1. Bijan Robinson

2. Jahmyr Gibbs

3. Jordan Addison 

4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

5. Zay Flowers

6. Quentin Johnston

7. Anthony Richardson 

8. Zach Charbonnet * My pick 

9. Kendre Miller

10. Dalton Kincaid

• I've had seven rookie drafts so far this season, and this is the first time I have seen Jordan Addison drafted ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers ahead of Quentin Johnston. It's not a huge surprise since I have all four of them back-to-back in my rankings, and unlike most analysts, have Flowers ranked one ahead of Johnston, but it was interesting to see the order they were picked in this draft different from any other draft I've seen so far. I think Addison will have a quicker start to his career playing opposite Justin Jefferson than will Njigba playing alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but I still prefer Njigba in the long run. Johnston and Flowers both have stiff competition too, but the Chargers have the more pass-friendly offense, so managers have drafted Johnston ahead of Flowers by quite a bit in most of my drafts.
• A team traded up to 1.7 to draft Anthony Richardson. He traded A.J. Brown for the 1.7, 5.1, Javonte Williams, and Brock Burdy. That's quite a hall for A.J. Brown! The team that traded up for 1.7 has DeShaun Watson as his only starting quarterback after Tom Brady retired, so he traded up for need and now has three starting quarterbacks, assuming Purdy is healthy and named the 49ers the starter and Richardson beats out Gardner Mishew. Richardson has been the first quarterback drafted in every one of my drafts, even though he's my third-ranked quarterback in this class. I'll stand alone on my island, boast if I'm right, and eat crow if I'm wrong. I prefer the pedigree and college production of C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young over the bet on Richardson's traits and potential.
• As for my pick, the Richardson pick allowed Charbobnet to fall to me, just as he did at the 1.8 spot in my first rookie draft. I was pleased to draft Charbonnet, and he was the top player on my board without question. He will push Kenneth Walker for playing time this season and will not only be the Seahawk's passing downs back but also their goalline back, if not outright overtake, Walker as their lead back. It's rare to see my third-ranked running back and the NFL's third-highest drafted running back fall to 8th in a rookie draft, but I was happy to see it happen here.

Round Two

11. Devon Achane

12. Bryce Young

13. Jonathan Mingo 

14. C.J. Stroud 

15. Michael Mayer 

16. Roschon Johnson

17. Tyjae Spears  

18. Josh Downs ** My Pick

19. Tank Bigsby

20. Rashee Rice

• There wasn't anything too surprising in this second round. Most of these players have been drafted right around at the spots they were drafted in this draft. The only exception is Roschon Johnson, who always gets drafted far earlier than I would draft him and was drafted the earliest I have ever seen in this draft. I have Johnson ranked 28th, but he was drafted 16th in this draft. He was drafted as early as 17th in one of my drafts and as late as 27th in another. I love my Texas Longhorn, but he has fellow Longhorn D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert ahead of him in the Bears' depth chart; both players are better than Johnson. I would much rather have drafted Tyjae Spears or Tank Bigsby in this round.
• Speaking of Spears, a team traded up in the draft to select him. The team that drafted Spears gave up the 4.1 in this draft and a 2024 2nd-round pick to get him. The team that added Spears was the worst in the league last year but has room to improve after adding Bijan Robinson at 1.1 and A.J. Brown in the trade mentioned above to his team. Those players made him more willing to trade next year's second-round pick for this year's second-round pick, Spears.
• I drafted my first share of Josh Downs here at 2.8. I was hoping Spears would fall to me there, but trade sniped me, so I was trying to decide between Sam La Porta, Marvin Mims, and Downs. I have LaPorta ranked four spots ahead of Downs, but I already have five tight ends on my roster, including three second-year tight ends, so I decided to pass on LaPorta. I have Mims ranked one spot ahead of Downs in my rankings, but when it came down to being on the clock, I chose Downs instead. I had Downs ranked as a first-round draft pick before the NFL draft but moved him back to 18th in my rankings after his draft capital fell and his landing spot wasn't the best. If I'm concerned about Anthony Richardson panning out in the NFL, I have to be concerned about the production of his wide receivers. Even so, I loved his college tape and production and thought I'd rather have one share of Downs over Mims, who fell to the third round in this draft.

Round Three

21. Marvin Mims  

22. Sam LaPorta

23. Chase Brown  

24. Jayden Reed

25. Israel Abanikanda

26. Jaylin Hyatt 

27. Luke Musgrave

28. Cedric Tillman ** My Pick

29. Zach Evans  

30. Eric Gray

• After drafting Downs, I immediately offered Nico Collins for the following picks, which I thought was a fair offer. I was willing to trade Collins to draft Mims or LaPorta, but I did not get any takers, and they were the first two picks of the third round.
• The top and middle parts of this round were all good picks that fell in the same range that I have the players ranked. The last two picks, Zach Evans and Eric Gray, were the only ones I considered a reach. Gray and Evans are ranked 47th and 48th in my rankings, yet they went 29th and 30th in this draft. I understand managers taking a gamble on their upside to become the backups to Saquon Barkley and Cam Akers. Still, their 5th and 6th round draft capital is not great, and the backups they have to overtake to become the RB-2s on their teams are good players. Kyren Williams was drafted a round ahead of Evans, and Mat Breida is a proven NFL backup. I would rather have drafted Evan Hull or Deuce Vaughn ahead of them, but they were drafted in the next round.
• As for me, I stuck to my board and drafted Cedric Tillman, who I had ranked 25th and drafted at 28th. I'm concerned about his competition in Cleveland with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, at the end of the third round, I was pleased to add a player drafted in the third round of the NFL draft. Tillman did not have excellent college production, but his athletic testing and size got him drafted in the third round, which makes the Browns think a lot of him. The only other player I considered drafting was Tank Dell, who was the only player available with better draft capital than Tillman.

Round Four

31. Will Levis  

32. Evan Hull 

33. Deuce Vaugh

34. Luke Schoonmaker

35. Hendon Hooker

36. Kayshon Boute

37. Michael Wilson

38. Tank Dell ** My Pick

39. Puka Nacua

40. DeWayne McBride

• The only pick I did not like in this round was Hendon Hooker. In a one-quarterback league, I don't think Hooker should get drafted at all. Jared Goff is a far better quarterback than he gets credit for, and the Lions will see that even more this year since the team is improving and they've given him better weapons. Goff can keep Hooker at bay this season and prove he's worthy of a new contract after his expires in 2024.
• I love the value of all the wide receivers in this round. This is the round where I have most often drafted Kayshon Boutte or Puca Nacua, and I'd even consider Michael Wilson this late based on draft capital alone. I wanted to draft Nacua because he's the player I've drafted the most in this round because I love his college tape and his opportunity to receive immediate targets this season, but I stayed true to my board and drafted the player I almost drafted ten picks earlier in the third round, Tank Dell. Houston drafted him with the 6th pick in the 3rd round, and C.J. Stroud told the Texans he wanted to draft him. Dell is the super tiny receiver that will break the mold. He had far more college production than the likes of other tiny receivers that have been drafted recently, like Tutu Atwell. His 17-touchdown season last year in college made me thrilled to see what he can do in the NFL. His 160-pound frame would break the mold in the NFL, but he's the kind of player that can do it. In the fourth round, I was thrilled to take a chance on him, giving me two shares of the tiny Tank!

Round Five

41. Sean Tucker

42. Kenny McIntosh

43. Jalen Brooks

44. Xavier Hutchinson

45. Tucker Kraft

46. Chris Rodriguez

47. Andrei Iosivas

48. Tyler Scott ** My Pick

49. Clayton Tune

50. Jake Moody

• I never make fun of picks in the fifth round of rookie drafts, but Jake Moody, a kicker, going as mister insignificant cracks me up. This is an old-school league with kickers, but this is the first time I've seen one drafted in a rookie draft.
• Sean Tucker, Xavier Hutchinson, and Chris Rodriguez are the players I like most in this round. They were wise and great picks, but I was elated to draft Tyler Scott, my 33rd-ranked player, with the 48th pick. He has more competition in Chicago than I would like, with D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool ahead of him, but he also has a better trait than all of them. He has breakaway speed. Late in rookie drafts, I value traits ahead of college production and tape, whereas, in the early rounds, I do the opposite. Scott is a burner who many scouts have ranked way ahead of receivers that were drafted ahead of him this year. Many dynasty analysts had Scott as their sleeper wide receiver in this class. He was one of mine, too. I now have him on three of my squads. I drafted him in the 5th round of this draft, added him off waivers after a four-round rookie draft in another league, and traded my 2024 5th-round pick in one league to draft him in the 6th round of that league. Scott is terribly overlooked in most leagues.

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My Roster

• I have one of the best rosters in the league. If Justin Herbert can bounce back from his poor season last year, I will surely be a championship contender. I always prefer to be strongest at the wide receiver position, and I am loaded in this league with four of my top 12 ranked dynasty receivers on my roster. I added a lot of wide receivers in this draft, so I can wait on them as they develop into possible starters on my roster. I added one running back in the draft to add to my solid running back core containing three every-week starters. I did not draft a tight end since my squad already has three second-year tight ends to develop behind my veteran starters. I added to my best dynasty roster and am poised for another championship run with depth to continue for years to come in this league.

Quarterbacks

• Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell

Running Backs

• Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Zach Charbonnet, Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford, Treyveon Williams

Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Isaiah Hodgins, Sterling Shepard, Kyle Phillips, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Cedric Tillman, Tyler Scott

Tight Ends

• Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Chig Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, Tre McBride

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