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Fri Jun 7th 2019

10 Guys I'm Not Giving Up On Yet

Guys to buy low if you can

There are many things that take place in the offseason that affect players' dynasty value.  There is free agency, the draft, coaching changes, injuries, recoveries, and more.  The guys I list here saw their value drop over the offseason for many of the above reasons.  However, they did not drop far enough in value to make me want to trade them away.  I think now they have become great buys, and here are some reasons why.  I list the player in alphabetical order.

Antonio Callaway – WR, Cleveland

  • Callaway's stock was rising at the end of the season as he seemed to be establishing himself as the WR-2 in Cleveland and the Cleveland offense was looking up.  When the season ended they decide to hire Freddie Kitchens as their head coach, so the thought of no major offensive changes or another coach reevaluating the WRs in Cleveland made Callaway's stock rise a bit more.  The came the OBJ trade, and there went Callaway's targets and his dynasty value.  His value has rightfully dropped, but I'd still try to buy him.  There are plenty of targets in Cleveland even if he's the WR-3.  Plus, OBJ is often injured so Callaway could become the WR-2 if OBJ or Landry get injured.  I still believe the coach and GM like him and want to see the chance they took in drafting (he had some legal troubles in college) pay off.

Carlos Hyde – RB, Kansas City

  • Hyde's stock dipped quite a bit during the season due to losing the lead RB job in Cleveland to Nick Chubb and by getting traded to Jacksonville.  Nick Chubb is obviously a better player, but there were reports of character issues that ultimately led to him being traded.  The same reports came out from Jacksonville who let him leave via free agency.  In addition, many fantasy analysts rightly pointed out Hyde's decrease in yards-per-carry the last consecutive years.  His value his an all-time low, but then got a small bump up when he landed in Kansas City with their high-powered offense.  His stock fell back down a bit after Kansas City, aware of their need at RB, drafted Darwin Thompson and sign James Williams as a UDFA.  Both of those rookies are highly thought of with amazing upside. While Hyde's stock is low, I'd still try to get him and you won't have to give up too much to do so. I believe Hyde can excel this year as the RB-2 behind Damien Williams.  First of all, Andy Reid always produces top 12 RBs for fantasy.  Always.  I believe that will be Williams this year, but Hyde will get his fair share of touches too and will be a star if Williams (who has never had more than 50 carries in a year) get injured.  Hyde's best year of his career was with San Fransisco when he was used as more of a passing catching back (catching 59 passes in 2017).  Cleveland and Jacksonville did not use him that way.  Kansas City will.

Devante Parker – WR, Miami

  • I can't believe I'm being lured back in!  I remember trading my 1.2 rookie draft pick for Parker after his rough first year, thinking he'll figure it out.  He's been a huge bust since he was drafted in the top half of rookie drafts four years ago.  I sold him in one league and even cut him in one league when his value was low.  This year, I'm back in and hope to buy him.  The coaching and QB changes in Miami are my primary reasons why.  Adam Gase, his former coach at Miami, is notorious for finding guys he hates and just not giving them the opportunity even if they have the talent.  Gase is gone and Parker has a chance to prove himself to his new coach, Brian Flores.  Miami's former QB, Ryan Tannehill (and all of his back-ups since he was injured so often) did not help Parker.  Now Fitzpatrick and Rosen will compete for the QB-1 job in Miami.  I believe Fitz Magic is an automatic upgrade and Rosen could be too.  The past is the past.  Here's to a new future for DeVante!

D’Onta Foreman – RB, Houston

  • Foreman's value was rising fast at the end of his rookie year when he appeared to move into the RB-1 spot in Houston.  Ironically, the peak of his value was the exact same second as the valley of his value.  Foreman had an explosive touchdown run and on that play, as he stretched toward the endzone tore his Achilles.  His value has stayed down because no RB has ever come back from an Achilles injury to become a startable fantasy RB and he was not able to get on the field until the second to last game of the year.   His value may have risen a bit when Houston did not draft an RB in the draft.  But it dropped a bit when they brought in two UDFAs in Damarea Crockett and Kiron Higdon.  I am no doctor but I believe he has had adequate time to heal and he'll have just as fair a shot of winning the RB-1 job over Lamar Miller and the two UDFAs to win the job.  Go try to buy my fellow Longhorn!

John Ross – WR, Cincinnati

  • Every time I mention John Ross I feel like, for transparency's sake, I have to mention one of my worst dynasty trades when I traded Tyreek Hill for a first-round draft pick and with that pick chose John Ross.  Ouch!  Maybe it hurts less so if Hill is suspended this year.  Still, I thought I was drafting Tyreek 2.0 - the only guy who could literally beat Tyreek in a race.  He's was a complete dud in year one and last year was just a ridiculous year because he caught 7 TDs (tieing him for 16th in TD catches last year) on only 21 catches.  If only he could be that efficient on 75 catches!  I don't think he can do that, but I do believe the change in coaching staff can give him the opportunity to become a third-year breakout.  Zac Taylor is one of the Sean McVay disciples and some speculate that he'll run a lot of 3-WR sets and feature Ross and the Brandin Cooks of his offense.  Taylor does not have much coaching experience for us to definitively speculate, but he should lead a more modern pass-happy offense than Cincinnati did under Marvin Lewis.  Add to that the fact that AJ is getting older, is oft-injured and is in a contract year, and I believe Ross is worth trying to buy while his value is so low.  He was a first-round pick by the Bengals and in our rookie drafts after all.

Josh Doctson – WR, Washington

  • Speaking of first-round draft picks, Josh Doctson was drafted three years ago by the Redskins in the first round and was a first-round draft pick in all of my rookie drafts.  His value was never as high as it was in that rookie draft.  He had an injury-plagued first year, showed promise his second year when he caught 6 TDs on just 35 catches, but last year had only 44 catches and 2 TDs.  His value dropped when Washington drafted two WRs in this year's draft in Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon after drafting Trey Quinn the year before.  All three of these guys are being drafted ahead of Doctson in start-up drafts now, which is why I like the chance to buy low on him.  Washington let Crowder go in free agency so the only true veteran to compete with is Paul Richardson.  Rookies WRs have a hard time adjusting in year one and Quinn is relegated to a slot role.  Doctson still has the highest draft pedigree of all of these young WRs in Washington.  I believe he can hold them off for a starting job and make a connection with Washington's new QB, whether it be Keenum or the rookie Haskins.

Justin Jackson – RB, LA Chargers

  • I'm pretty bitter about Justin Jackson.  Last year went undrafted in all of my dynasty rookie drafts so I picked him up in free agency right after the drafts.  I was way higher on him than most anyone else and could not believe he went undrafted and hated that he signed a UDFA contract with the Chargers so he'd be behind Melvin Gordon.  As the season progressed and he was moved to the practice squad, I dropped him in all of my leagues.  After Gordon was injured and Jackson had some opportunities, I was only able to get him off the waiver wire in one of my leagues.  His value is low because Melvin Gordon is so great and people perceive Austin Ekeler to be the RB-2 behind Gordon.  I, however, do not believe that to be true.  I believe Ekeler is solidified in his change of pace back role, thus making Jackson the true handcuff to the injury-prone Gordon.  Jackson had an incredibly productive and durable career at Northwestern University and can carry the load if given the opportunity in Los Angelas.  He's the exact kind of player I like to have sitting on my bench until the opportunity arises.

Kenyan Drake – RB, Miami

  • I remember drafting Drake in a rookie draft three years ago.  He didn't produce in year one or two so I dropped him, but at the tail end of his second year, he did great, averaging 15 points pergame the last 6 games of his sophomore year.  His stock rose quite afterward, but last season left everyone guessing.  He never had the consistency that he had during those last 6 games of 2017, but he did have some great games and some duds last year.  All in all, his stock dropped quite a bit from the end of the 2017 season.  As mentioned before, his coach (at the time) Adam Gase is not fantasy friendly.  He picks and chooses who to play for who knows what reasons.  Well, Gase is finally gone as is Frank Gore.  Miami drafted Myles Gaskin but only in the 7th round.  Drake has a new coaching staff and is just competing with the rookie, Gaskin, and the second year player, Ballage.  He hs every chance to win the approval of his new coaching staff and win the job.  He'll be a lot harder to buy than the rest of the guys on this list because most people see this opportunity too, but he's still worth a try to buy from an owner whose not as sharp as you.

Marquise Lee – WR, Jacksonville

  • Marquise was highly drafted in the 2014 rookie drafts but never lived up to his value.  At the end of the 2017 season, it started to feel like he could become Bortles WR-1.  His value rose back up for just a bit, but then wrecked his knee just before the season started last year.  At the end of the season last year, I picked him up in several leagues because I still believe he can be the WR-2 in Jacksonville.  I really like Westbrook and believe he is the best WR in Jacksonville, but Lee has little competition to win the #2 job, even after the injury.  Granted, they brought in a lot of guys to compete for the job (Chark, Conley, Pryor) in addtion to the upside of Keelan Cole.  I believe Lee can beat them all out and retain a starting role in Jacksonville.  He should be easy to buy if you have room to hold him.

Royce Freeman – RB, Denver

  • Freeman was a first-round rookie draft pick after being drafted in the 3rd round by the Broncos last year.  All Freeman owners were stunned to see the tiny UDFA, Phillip Lindsay, win the starting job in Denver and have an incredible rookie year.  Freeman's value plummeted.  His value has only recently risen while Lindsay is recovering from his wrist surgery, which is taking longer than expected to heal.  I say the time to buy Freeman is now.  Denver has a new coaching staff that will reevaluate their RBs.  The new run-game scheme in Denver better fits the skills of Freeman and Lindsay is so small that they need to find ways to get Freeman more touches.  Since he was a 1st round rookie pick and is only in his second year, he will be harder to buy but do what you can to do so.

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