Tue Aug 23rd 2022

Week Two Preseason Report

Dynasty Freeks got to watch all 32 teams play games again this week. It was great to see some teams put their starters out for a possession or two, and a little frustrating that many did not. Still, there's a lot we can learn from watching the games. Here are some of my takeaways from a dynasty perspective after watching all of the week-two preseason games.

I Was Wrong

• I have to admit that I was wrong on Dameon Pierce. Last week he was one of the most outstanding players on the field, averaging 9.8 yards per carry on his five touches. It's just one preseason game, but it was enough for the coaches to keep Pierce off the field in their second preseason game, sending a clear signal that his the running back they planned to start in week one. I stick by my rookie evaluation process, which places a lot of weight on college production, but Pierce may be the exception to that rule. There will always be a player or two who breaks a trend, and it could be Pierce this year. He never had more than106 touches or 574 yards rushing in college, and he played for four years. The only college statistic in his favor was his 16 touchdowns his senior year. I didn't think a player with such unimpressive statistics and limited team volume could become a starter in the NFL, but I could be wrong. One great preseason game does not make Pierce a fantasy starter, but on a team with a terrible depth chart, it made him the starter in Houston. His dynasty value will increase significantly as a result. He's not getting drafted much higher in rookie drafts because even back in May, there were managers who believed in him. In one of my rookie drafts last week, he was drafted at the 2.2 spot, but in May, he was drafted between the 2.3 to 2.8 spots. I'm admitting defeat and have moved Pierce up to 16th in my rookie rankings, putting me in line with those who believed in him before he won the RB-1 role in Houston.

A New Number Two

• Jaylen Warren had a tremendous outing in his first preseason game, and this week the beat writers reported that Warren had leaped ahead of Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland on the depth charts. It remains to be seen whether that's the case, but Warren certainly solidified a roster spot on the team, which is quite a feat for a UDFA. Warren was the player who was picked up the most off the waiver wire in my leagues. Thankfully, I was the manager who won him in every league except one. I won bids in three leagues where no other manager bid on him, I outbid one manager by one dollar in another league, and I lost a bid to one manager who bid $101 of a $1000 budget to add Warren to his squad. I loved Warren's college tape and production and was surprised he was not drafted. I had him ranked 41st before the NFL draft but moved him down to 63rd after the NFL draft. This week I moved him back up to 41st in my rookie rankings. He's still a backup running back playing behind one of the best young running backs in the league, Najee Harris, but he's a great player to hold on a dynasty roster if Harris gets injured. Warren is now tied with four other players as my most rostered player.

Homer Pick

• Travis Homer played really well last week, and he did so again this week. In week one, he has 41 yards rushing on just four carries and 33 yards receiving on two receptions. That's more than ten yards per carry and 15 yards per reception. This week he had 44 yards on five carries (almost nine yards per carry). Homer is third on the depth chart behind Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker, so I was not interested in picking up Homer even after his good games. Still, when it was announced this week that Walker had hernia surgery, I found myself more interested and picked him up in one league and saw him picked up by others in a few leagues too. I'm only interested in a very deep league because Rashaad Penny has battled injured every year of his career, and Walker has this setback to start the season. He's definitely a back-of-the-roster player, but I was intrigued enough to pick him and hold him until roster cut day. I'd consider adding him in deep leagues.

Sharing The Love

• Last week I was tempted to write about how poor Jordan Love looked in Green Bay, but I chose to write about Romeo Doub's performance instead. I'm glad I waited because this week, Love changed my mind. He looked great in the second preseason game. He was calmer in the pocket and showed control of the offense. He checked down to second and third reads often and threw several beautiful touch passes downfield between zones. His day could have looked much better had his teammates, including Doubs, stopped dropping passes. Pro Football Focus reported after the game that "Love has had had eight dropped passes in the preseason already. His adjusted completion percentage is 70.1. He has four 'big time' throws and only one 'turnover-worthy play' in 53 dropbacks." Love is showing improvement, making him a great player to hold in superflex leagues. What's more important is that the Packers may have a quarterback that can keep the dynasty value of other Packers from falling whenever Aaron Rodgers does retire.

Picking Up Where They Off

• The Bills rolled out their starters for the first possession and kept all of the starters (minus Josh Allen) in for most of the second series. The Bills scored on both possessions and then amazingly scored touchdowns on the following four possessions. You can't make too much of a preseason game, but the Bills look ready for a Super Bowl run and appear unaffected by losing Brian Daboll as their offensive coordinator. Ken Dorsey is doing just fine calling the plays, and Josh Allen is a beast. On the first possession, he scrambled around in the pocket and threw a dart of his back leg to Gabriel Davis for a touchdown, and then his day was done. Davis is picked up where he left off after this four-touchdown playoff game that ended last year's Bills' season. The same can be said for Devin Singletary, who saw his first preseason action since the six-game tear he had at the end of last season. It appears clear to me then that Singletary is the lead back in Buffalo. He started with the first team and had four great runs in the first possession, averaging almost ten yards per carry. Moss came in to score the second touchdown in a short-yardage situation, but Buffalo had already pulled several more of their starters off the field by the end of that drive. Singletary is very overlooked by the dynasty community right now. He's in the last year of his contract, so there is some reason to fear that he will not re-sign with the team since Moss has two more years in his contract and James Cook is starting his rookie contract. The contract is the only reason I don't have Singletary ranked higher in my dynasty rankings, but I believe he'll be a valuable fantasy starter this season. He's a great player for contending teams to buy and rebuilding teams to sell. 

Better Late Than Never

• Josh Palmer had a fantastic game for the Chargers, playing with the second-teamers in the first half. He had an outstanding touchdown on a wide receiver screen and caught several deep passes. He showed promise in his rookie year last year when Mike Williams or Keenan Allen were injured but never solidified his role in three-receiver sets. He will this year and could be capable of replacing Keenan Allen in a few years. Palmer is tied with a few other guys as my most rostered player, so his breakout is no surprise to me. I'm eager to see his target share improve this season and earn a flex-worthy role in fantasy lineups. What surprised me, however, was how third-year running back, Joshua Kelley, appears to have the RB-2 position locked up in Los Angeles. Beat writers reported that news this week, and the second preseason game confirmed it. He did not look great in the game, but Isaiah Spiller looked even worse. I've assumed that Spiller would jump straight ahead of Kelley and Larry Rountree by the time the season started, but he's fourth in the rotation for a reason. Spiller's fall from dynasty grace has been slow and steady since the end of the college football season. Injuries, poor Combine results, fourth-round draft capital, and now lousy camp reports have sunk his dynasty value. There's still time for him to develop, but running backs usually don't get better with time. They're the one position that either pops or doesn't. I don't think Kelley will pop either, but as I already mentioned, backup running backs are essential to carry in dynasty leagues, and he has the role locked up so far. I traded Kelley straight up for Boston Scott this week and now may live to regret it.

In Need Of A Gap Year

• After watching the Titans' second preseason game, I think two players need a gap year this season. It's no surprise that Malik Willis is not ready for the NFL. He was drafted in the third round for a reason. It is, however, a big surprise that Treylon Burks, the Titan's first-round pick, may need a gap year too. Ryan Tannehill's job is secure for this year. Willis is incredibly athletic and fun to watch run with the ball in his hands, but until he can curb his run-first instinct, he'll have a hard time in the NFL. He needs to learn to be patient and see the field, something he clearly is not doing well yet. He's obviously a player to hold onto in superflex leagues, but in one quarterback leagues with no taxi squads, it would be harder to do. As for Burks, he had one catch for four yards this week after a goose egg last week. That's not improvement. He's running with the backups and can't move up the depth charts, even as a first-round pick. Willis will need a Tannehill injury to see the field this season, but Burks will see the field eventually, but from a fantasy production side, it could be a gap year for him too. Meaning, he might not be a startable player in the lineups this season. It's so hard for me to believe, but almost every year, there's a first-round wide receiver that busts. I hope it's not Burks this year because I stuck to my early draft board and drafted him at the 1.4 spot in a rookie draft last week.

Moving On Up

• Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted, and he looks like he'll be the first to see the field this season. Pickett ran with the third string last week, and this week he was the second quarterback to play with the first-team offense. He looked great too. He stood in the face of pressure and found the open man time after time. He was six of seven and threw two touchdown passes. One was called back for a holding call. He was on time with his throws and looked just as good or better than Mitch Trubisky. I still believe the Steelers will let Trubisky start the season, but he'll be on the shortest of leashes. The fans will demand it because they want to see their hometown boy win the job. I think he can. I'm happy to say that I had Kenny Pickett as my top-ranked quarterback in this class since I released my rookie rankings the week of the Super Bowl. I have already written about where I've been wrong in this article, so it's fair to mention when I'm right, too.

Spread Thin

• I'm beginning to get worried about the target share in Kansas City. Juju Smith-Schuster did not play in their second preseason game, but everyone else did, including Patrick Mahomes. He led the team on two scoring drives but spread the ball around to everyone, including Joey Fortson, and a wide receiver converted to a tight end who caught both of Mahomes' touchdown passes. This situation could benefit the Chiefs, but it won't help dynasty managers who want someone to emerge as the second most targeted player behind Travis Kelce. You can't weigh too much into preseason games, but I would like to have a better clue by now if Juju, Skyy Moore, MVS, or Mecole Hardman are Mahome's second favorite target. After playing great with Mahomes in this game, Justin Watson put himself in the mix, with Juju and Hardman out with injuries. I'm fading everyone right now, and I'm glad Kelce is my most rostered Chief. I have Juju and MVS on the same team in one league, but that's it.

Tua Early To Tell

• I'll end this article with a terrible pun, but Tua's first preseason action did not instill confidence in me. He mostly checked the ball down to running backs and tight ends. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill did not play, so it is too early to tell on Tua, but I wish he showed something more than he did in his first preseason action. It looked to me like Chase Edmonds is the starting running back for Miami, though I am sure Raheem Mostert will challenge him for time once he's cleared to play. If Tua is just a dink and dunk kind of quarterback like he's shown thus far in his career, Edmonds will benefit the most. I'm not burying Tua yet. I need to see him with Waddle and Hill before I decide his dynasty fate. This season with cement his dynasty value one way or the other.

Leave your comment using the form below

Name
Comment
Enter the code