Tue Aug 30th 2022

Week Three Preseason Report

The preseason has ended, and so has our last dynasty data point before NFL rosters and dynasty rosters get cut down to size. As has been the case throughout the preseason, some week three games didn't show us much from a dynasty perspective, but a few did. I watched the games I thought I could learn something from, and here are some thoughts on what I learned from a dynasty perspective.

An Unlikely Start

• I'm cheating a bit on this first observation because it's a takeaway from week two, not three. After all, the Ravens played the Sunday night game last week after I already wrote my week-two takes. Isaiah Likely dominated the first half of the game, building upon his excellent game in week one. He had eight catches for 100 yards and a touchdown with the second-team offense starting the first half. Likely is proving the Ravens' unconventional draft strategy right again. In 2018, the Ravens drafted Hayden Hurst in the second round and Mark Andrews in the third round. Doubling down on tight end and playing the best one regardless of draft capital made Mark Andrews the NFL and fantasy superstar he is today. The year, the Ravens drafted Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely in the fourth round (23rd and 34th, respectively), and it looks like they hit gold again with the latter of the two picks. One of the questions dynasty managers have been asking this offseason is which player will emerge as the third-most targeted guy on the Ravens behind Andrews and Rashod Bateman. I think we have an answer, even if it's a second tight end. Likely has played too well in the preseason not to be a part of the offense. Likely and Andrews are capable of splitting out wide and playing while the other stays in line. After this preseason, I am positive they will find ways to do so. It's been a long time since the Patriots made two tight ends fantasy starters with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but they proved it can be done. Baltimore has as good a chance as any team to do it again with Andrews and Likely.

Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

• Baker Mayfield led the Panthers on two scoring drives in the first half while playing without his starting running backs and receivers. He looked like a quarterback that could finally lift the dynasty tide of everyone on the offense. His stats from the game against the Bills don't look great, but that's because he had several of his passes dropped by the backups. The Panthers have a good feel for what Mayfield can and cannot do because the offense in Friday's game focused on short and intermediate routes with lots of play-action and bootleg passes. Almost half of Mayfield's 15 passes were to running backs, including one of his touchdown passes, which should get Christian McCaffery managers excited once again. Shi Smith played in the D.J. Moore role and caught three passes from Mayfield. D.J. Moore will be happy to have the most capable quarterback of his career. Mayfield still has his flaws. He gets happy feet too quickly in the pocket, scrambles when he doesn't have to, and tries to write checks that he can't cash with his limited arm strength. Still, he has enough to lift the fantasy tide of Panthers players who have needed a lift the last few years. 

Welcome Back Flash

• All of the Saints starters were on the field in week three except for Michael Thomas, and they looked explosive on the opening and only drive of the game. Jameis Winston led the team on an eleven-play 75-yard drive, completing four of four passes to Jarvis Landry (2), Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara. Kamara contributed with four rushes, including a 13-yard run that set up the touchdown and an 18-yard run that was called back by penalty. Mark Ingram got the one-yard touchdown carry but also carried the ball twice on the drive. It was just good to see Winston back on the field and see the first-team offense together, minus Thomas. Dynasty managers are right to have some apprehension about the Saints without Sean Payton for the first time in years, but they seem ready to show that they can score points with a new play caller. The Saints retained their offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael, and will look very similar to the offenses we've grown accustomed to seeing under Payton. What's more, the addition of Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave will make the offense even better.

Taking Command Soon

• The Around The NFL Podcast makes me laugh whenever I hear the soundbite of Carson Wentz doing his best Russell Wilson impression at his press conference by saying, "It's time to take command." Wentz can't pull it off. He comes across as cheesy. I think there is another player on the Commanders, however, that will take command soon. Sam Howell got a lot of work this preseason. In fact, he's the NFL passing leader this preseason, with 547 yards passing in the three preseason games. He's made his share of mistakes, but he's looked more than ready to help the team when his name is called. He was 24 for 35 on Saturday with 280 yards passing and a touchdown. His day could have been even better had his college teammate, Dyami Brown, not dropped passes, including a drop in the end zone. I'm very excited to have Sam Howell on one of my rosters in a superflex league. Even in a one-quarterback league, I think I would keep Howell on my roster. I certainly would if I had a taxi squad. I don't listen to many Devy league podcasts, but I do listen to several scouting podcasts. I remember to note which players were considered one of the top Devy players, particularly when they once were at the top but dropped in value during their last year of college as others seemed to pass them by. Many evaluators ranked Howell as the top quarterback in this class before he struggled in his final season at North Carolina. I like to chances on guys who were once thought to be top prospects, especially when they fall in the NFL draft. For now, Howell is behind Wentz and Taylor Heinicke on the depth chart. Still, Heinicke is a free agent after this season, and Carson Wentz is a mistake waiting to happen, so I'm hopeful for Howell's dynasty future.

Trade Bait

• Denzel Mims and Andy Isabella had breakout games this week, making me suspect their coaching staffs featured them to garner trade offers. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I think it's true. Mims was reportedly on the trading block this week, so it made sense to feed him Sunday afternoon when the Jets had the spotlight game to themselves. Mims had the best game of his career, catching seven passes for 102 yards and a touchdown, proving that the Jets want to see him on a new team, as do dynasty managers, if he's still on a roster. A fresh start usually doesn't help in cases like these, but his dynasty value becomes interesting again if he does get traded. Isabella was not rumored to be on the trading block this week, but his 5-catch 115-yard day on Saturday may make him a player NFL teams may wish to trade for, or maybe he's the player the Cardinals need to rely on early in the season with DeAndre Hopkins on suspension. I think Isabella's and Rondal Moore's skillsets are too similar, making the Cardinals willing to trade Isabella if a team comes calling. It will be interesting to see what both teams do with these players this week, even as dynasty managers face roster cuts this week too. 

Sleeper That's Asleep

• Tyler Allgeier was a player I targeted in the mid rounds of rookie drafts back in May, but he's been falling in my rankings with each passing week of the preseason. He scored a short-yardage touchdown this week, but he still ran behind Caleb Huntley and Qadree Ollison in the final preseason game when Damien Williams and Cordarrelle Patterson sat the game out. I thought he would rise up the depth chart quicker during the preseason, but he's not shown enough in practice or on film to prove he's better than the vets ahead of him. Other dynasty managers were hopeful for him, too, because he went higher than I expected in rookie drafts. I only drafted him in one league, and I'm grateful to have a taxi squad to sit him on for this season. I'll be curious to see which of the five Atlanta running backs get cut this week. One of them will.

It's Not Too Late

• It's not too late for David Njoku. I believe he's poised to have the most productive season of his career. "Better late than never," say his dynasty managers! He cashed in a new deal this offseason, and the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, the best quarterback Njoku has ever had (although he has to wait for eleven games to play with him). Even while he waits for Watson to boost his dynasty value, I think he will see his dynasty value rise at the start of this season. I'm frustrated that I cannot remember the exact statistic or who I heard share it, but I know I heard that Jacobi Brissett has targeted his tight ends at an exceptionally high rate throughout his career. He targeted a tight end six times in the first five drives of the game this week, and I think that's what we can expect to start the season. Njoku has never had more than 88 targets in a season. He'll receive far more than that this season with Brissett and, eventually, Watson. I'm sure of it. If I could find a manager down on Njoku, I would try to buy him low before his production climbs this season and he finally gets to play with Watson.

Still Got Burst

• It was great to see Raheem Mostert back on the field and breaking away from would-be tacklers. Mostert only had two carries, but one was for 26 yards, the longest run of the game. That's how Mostert is going to help the Dolphins and dynasty teams this season. It's been pretty clear by watching preseason games that Chase Edmonds will get the bulk of the workload in Miami, but Mostert will spell Edmonds often and offer big-play ability when he does. If Mostert stays healthy, he'll be hard to keep off the field and will cut into Edmonds' workload more than his dynasty managers would like. Mike McDaniel, a Kyle Shanahan disciple, could mess with dynasty managers like his mentor so often does. I have far more shares of Mostert than I do Edmonds, so seeing Mostert back on the field was a much-welcomed sight in my eyes, even though I am sure he'll get injured again before I know it.

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