Tue Aug 1st 2023

Training Camp Player Hype - Week One

All 32 teams' training camps are underway, which is officially hype season. If you're a Dynasty Freek, I highly recommend following NFL Beat Writers on Twitter because they constantly post highlights and information from all 32 camps. As Dynasty managers, we must be careful not to believe everything we see and hear from reporters, coaches, and players. However, having too much information is much better than staying in the dark with no information. The trick is to parse through the hype to determine what is believable and what is pure hype.

Throughout training camp and into the preseason, I'll post articles each week that give my thoughts on twenty players receiving hype during the previous week of training camp. I'll give you my best take on what's believable and what's not. Here are my thoughts on twenty players after week one of training camp.

Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson

• Brian Robinson told reporters that he's feeling healthier and more prepared for the start of his second season. Do you think? After getting shot twice in the leg and glute during a carjacking weeks before the season started, I'd hope that Robinson feels better going into this season. Robinson amazingly returned to play in week five of last season and immediately became the team lead back, averaging 17 carries per game, replacing Antonio Gibson as the team's RB-1. Robinson will start the season healthier and pick up where he left off last season as the team's first and second down back. Last week, Antonio Gibson told reporters that he expects to take the third-down role for the Commanders, and I think he's right. Gibson caught 46 passes last year compared to Robinson's nine catches, and J.D. McKissic did not re-sign with the team, vacating 27 receptions last year. Gibson will take on McKissic's load this year and is poised to have a 75-reception season, making his dynasty stock rise again after it fell significantly last year. I believe what I heard out of Commanders' camp last week, and Robinson and Gibson will be the one-two punch in Washington.

Rashaad Penny

• Penny reportedly received first-team reps and the first carries in training camp for the Eagles. Penny is the best running downs back on the Eagle's squad, and he will start the season as the primary rusher. Still, it's not tilting the dynasty scales for me because I don't think he can stay healthy, and the Eagles will try to keep him healthy by rotating three or four of their running backs. DeAndre Swift and Kenny Gainwell will be more involved in the Eagle's passing game, but they will also spell Penny a lot on first and second downs. The Eagles' running back rotation makes me want to sell all my shares of the Eagles' backs. Add to that Jalen Hurts is their best goalline back, and the passing tree is very narrow, with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert soaking up almost all of the targets. Even the passing downs backs will see limited targets. I'm out on all Eagles running backs, though I am sure all three will have a few very productive games this season.

James Conner

• The Cardinals' head coach, Jonathan Gannon, said he's "100% confident using James Conner as a "bell cow" running back." That's a lot to ask from a 28-year-old running back, but it is how Gannon intends to use Conner. I don't think he can handle the load without getting injured. That's why I added Corey Clement to my rosters last week in almost all of my leagues. Clement is second on the depth chart behind Conner though most dynasty managers believe Keaontay Ingram is next in line. Ingram played in eleven games last season and only touched the ball 31 times. Clement played in just five games and touched the ball 20 times. Neither player impressed last season backing up Conner because Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams played more than they did when Conner was injured. Benjamin and Williams are no longer on the team, so Ingram and Clement will benefit from a Conner injury this year. Ingram is in his second year, so there's reason for dynasty managers to hold onto him to see what he can do. Clement is the same age as Conner, but he's had a few standout games in his career while bouncing around to three different teams. One of the two will benefit from their role backing up Conner this season if the Cardinals use him on every down; I'm glad to have the cheapest option in Clement, who, while not an excellent dynasty play, could help my teams this season if the Cardinals' "bell cow" back gets injured.

Alexander Mattison and Kene Nwangwu

• The Vikings' offensive coordinator told reporters that he sees Mattison as an every-down back, and I believe him. Mattison will step directly into Dalvin Cook's role from last year. He's finally going to get his chance to start. The question in Minnesota is who will back him up. Reporters from camp last week indicated that Kene Nwangwu appears to be Mattison's backup ahead of Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride. If so, this is a big surprise to dynasty managers who swooped up Ty Chandler off of many waiver wires and bumped McBride up their rookie rankings after Cook was cut. Unlike Clement, Nwangwu is rostered in most of my leagues, including a few where he was wisely picked up last week based on this news. While I don't have any shares of Vikings backs, my bets are still on Ty Chandler to back up Mattison, as most dynasty managers think, but I can see why Nwangwu is a player worth watching the rest of training camp and into the preseason. He's an outstanding kick returner who could get a chance this season to prove himself as a running back weapon too.

Tank Bigsby

• Coaches and reporters have indicated that Tank Bigsby has already won the RB-2 role in Jacksonville. One coach said that he had to rewind the film to rewatch Bigsby's play again, and he said that he's just what they wanted from a back to pair with Travis Etienne. I believe him. I already regret not being higher on Bigsby in my rookie rankings. Bigsby will be the Jaguars' goalline and short-yardage back, making him a flex-worthy player right away in his rookie year, and if Etienne were to get injured, he'd become an every-week starter. The Jaguars' offense will improve even more this year, with Bigsby and Calvin Ridley in the mix, making for more scoring opportunities than last year. I believe the hype on Bigsby and have been drafting him in many of my best ball drafts and hope to draft him in my one remaining rookie draft.

Jahmyr Gibbs

• I might be biased because I drafted Gibbs at the 1.2 in one rookie draft this season and plan to draft him there again in my one remaining rookie draft, but I believe the hype on Gibbs after watching part of his pre-draft interview with the Lions' coaching staff. We saw on draft night how excited the team was to draft him, and last week the Lions released a part of his pre-draft interview where Gibbs answered questions about how to carry and secure the ball and how to pass protect against the blitz. Gibbs' answers to questions and his professionalism in the interview got me more excited about him as a prospect as it did for the coaching staff, who raved about his responses during the interview. I know more now about why they were so excited to draft him and how they plan to make him a huge part of the offense in the coming years. I'm all aboard this hype train!

James Cook

• The Bill's offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, told reporters James Cook has three-down potential. I'm calling this blarney talk. The Bills already showed their hand by signing Damien Harris and Latavius Murray this offseason, proving they want a bigger and stronger back to complement Cook. They need more than a short-yardage and a red zone back. They need a running downs back to make their offense more balanced in the run-and-pass game. James Cook is not built for that and will concede that role to Damien Harris. I'll put myself on an island on this one, but Harris will have a more productive fantasy season than Cook will this year, and he's the best back to have this season. If he plays as well as I expect and signs a new contract with the Bills. As a result, he's the best back to have in dynasty leagues too. 

Deneric Prince

• Prince has "wowed" coaches and reporters during training camp. I believe that he has, but the hype will not move the needle on my dynasty value for Prince. The Chiefs' running back room is one of the most crowded and unpredictable in fantasy. Andy Reid has toyed with fantasy managers since losing Kareem Hunt, his last reliable fantasy running back. I would not be surprised if Clyde Edwards Helaire bounces back this year and see his dynasty value rise again after falling to its depths last season. Nor would I be surprised to see Jerrick McKinnon pick up where he did at the end of last season. Isiah Pacheco is the Chiefs' starter, but his lack of involvement in the passing game significantly dings his fantasy production and dynasty value. As I am with the Eagles' backfield, I'm out on the Chief's backfield, even if Prince is the cheapest of their options and is getting some hype in training camp.

Sean Tucker

• Todd Bowles told reporters that Sean Tucker has been cleared to play, will jump right into the mix immediately, and has every chance to make the team. I could not be happier to hear this news since Tucker was one of my favorite sleepers in this year's class. He was a top twelve player in my rookie rankings until his heart issue was discovered, and he went undrafted. Still, he signed with the perfect team whose depth chart is not solidified. I'm convinced he's the best running back on the team and will earn a roster spot and take a leading role by the end of the season. This week is the last chance to try to buy Tucker, and I sent a lot of trade offers out last week and will again this week.

Calvin Ridley

• Calvin Ridley reportedly impresses teammates and coaches, appearing to be back in prime health, conditioning, and route running. Ridley was once one of the best route runners in the league before getting injured and suspended. It's been nearly two years since he's played an NFL game, and he's now 28 years old, but it's not hard to believe that he's back to his old self and has two or three more productive years ahead of him. Christian Kirk and Zay Flowers were highly productive last season and are tough competition for Ridley, but if you're to believe beat reporters, Ridley has already passed them by. It's hard to trust a player you've not seen in two years, but if there's a player worth believing in, it's Ridley. I'm buying the training camp hype, but the hype has moved him out of the price range I'd be willing to pay for him at his age. Dynasty managers who endured two years with him on their bench will see the reward for their patience this year. I'm sure of that. I wish I were one of them.

Zay Flowers

• Flowers has been a standout in training camp while Rashod Bateman sits out, and the Ravens take it easy with Odell Beckham Jr. This is no surprise to me. What's better to hear from Raven's beat reporters is that the pace of the offense has increased immensely. As expected, Todd Monken's offense will change how the Ravens play, and the increased pace is just what the doctor ordered for dynasty managers with Ravens on their teams. Flowers will become Lamar Jackson's underneath target this season, which is what he's ideally suited to do with his route running and spacial awareness. Bateman, Beckham, and Mark Andrews can stretch the field, leaving Flowers as a reliable check-down with excellent run-after-the-catch ability. Everything I expected from Flowers and the changes in the offensive scheme is happening, according to beat reporters.

Gabriel Davis

• Gabriel Davis told reporters he feels much better this year after being hampered by an ankle injury for much of last year's season. I'm not sure if the ankle injury is solely to blame for his lack of production last year after his incredible end of the 2021 season, but I fully expect him to bounce back this season and increase his dynasty value again. Headed into 2022, Davis' dynasty value was way higher than it should have been, but now it's fallen way lower than it should be. Despite their drafting Dalton Kincaid, I still expect Davis to be the second most targeted player on the Bills. Davis's dynasty value dropped even more this offseason after Kincaid was drafted. It's buying time for Davis while his stock is so low, and people expect Kincaid to become Josh Allen's second favorite target. I'm on an island with this take, which is why I could buy Davis for a reasonable price now.

Jayden Reed

• Jayden Reed has secured a role in the slot position and told reports that he's enjoying the role. I thought Reed would start from day one for the Packers, and I was right. Even so, as I wrote about two weeks ago, I believe Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs will be the most productive receivers on the team. However, I want to follow the team during training camp and the preseason to see if I am right. I am very open to the possibility that Reed could establish himself as a top one or two targets for Jordan Love. The entire offense will be different this year, so the Packers are one of the least predictable teams from a fantasy perspective. I'm glad that Reed has established a starting role already, as I expected, and now I will wait to see if he can exceed my expectations for Watson and Doubs. He very well could.

Rashee Rice

• The Athletic reports that Rashee Rice has led all wide receivers in first-team reps during the first week of training camp. Granted, Kadarius Toney injured his knee and had surgery last week, but still, that's saying something if it is true. Andy Reid's offense is very complex for rookies to learn, and he's been hesitant to give rookies sizeable roles in their first year in the scheme. Given Reid's history, I'm not buying this hype. I've watched videos of Rice making great contested catches during training camp and believe that what he does best and what he offers the team, but I find it hard to believe Reid will call on Rice as a starter to begin this season. As I wrote about two weeks ago, I don't trust any of the Chiefs' wide receivers in fantasy, nor do I value them highly in dynasty. Travis Kelce is their practice "WR-1," and everyone else is as productive as a WR-3. Juju Smith-Schuster was fairly reliable as a WR-2 in dynasty lineups last season, and one of the Chiefs' receivers could do so this year, but I am not confident in which one it could be.

Michael Wilson

• Michael Wilson is reportedly getting reps with the first-team offense. To this, I say, of course, he is because their depth chart is so weak. Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch appear to have the starting roles locked down, but for a team that is rebuilding and has a ton of draft picks next year, it would be very wise to see what they have in their third-round draft pick. Wilson was not on my rookie draft board until the Cardinals made the shocking pick, betting on his recruiting pedigree and few standout games over his history of injuries. The videos of his route running and catches during the first week of training camp have me wishing I had a share or two of him now. He will play a lot this season unless he gets injured again.

Darren Waller

• Reporters at training camp say that Daniel Jones only has eyes for Waller. He's his first read. Given the mediocre receiving corps in New York, I believe it. I thought Waller would become the Giant's top target before camps started, so these reports merely affirm my thinking. If Waller can remain healthy this season, he's sure to be a top-five tight end in fantasy again as he was two years ago. Sterling Shepard was Jones's safety blanket during his first two years with the Giants, but he has not had one since. Waller is his new security blanket and should receive 7-10 targets per game this season. I'm buying the hype on Waller.

Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave

• Beat writers have reported that LaPorta and Musgrave have already won the starting tight-end jobs for the Lions and Packers. These reports come as no surprise, given their draft capital and the lack of talent and experience ahead of them on their depth charts. Both will become streaming tight ends in their rookie years and position themselves to move up dynasty tight end rankings. I like LaPorta's chances to become fantasy relevant from day one since I trust Jared Goff more than Jordan Love. The Lions' offense is already in motion and improving greatly, while the Packers' offense is a work in progress. Musgrave will take more time to become fantasy relevant, but he will do so by the end of the year. The NFL and fantasy leagues desperately need more productive tight ends, and this year's class will help immensely.

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