Sat Aug 26th 2023

Training Camp Player Hype - Week Four

After my Dynasty Freeks weekend on the lake, I could finally watch all of the week two preseason games and consider them from a dynasty perspective. I watched the Thursday night preseason week-three games, and I am posting this just before I sit down to watch the Friday night games. In most cases, we will see little in week three, the new week four from years past. Still, it's fun to watch and glean what we can from a dynasty perspective and consider especially the impact the rookies and second-year players can make to our rosters this season and beyond.

Here are my dynasty thoughts on several players after preseason games and training camp reports.

Brock Purdy

• Amazingly, Purdy returned from injury to start his first preseason game. What's more impressive is that he's earned the starting role over two first-round draft picks after playing eight NFL games and as the last player drafted in the 2022 draft. He looked the part again, though, and led the team on a field-goal-scoring drive in his first preseason action. I remember the dismay I felt last season in a playoff run in a 14-team superflex league when I was offered Purdy for a first-round pick. I wanted him for my playoff run but could not believe he would become the 49ers starter. Whoever took those bets was a wiser or luckier dynasty manager than me. Purdy became the most surprising of all starting quarterbacks last year and is poised to continue where he picked off before he was injured in the 49ers' playoff run. There's nothing better in superflex leagues than a surprise starting quarterback found on the waiver wire. I missed it in all my leagues and will regret it. Good for Purdy and Shanahan for pulling a Pete Carroll and starting the quarterback he thinks is best despite draft capital and financial investment.

Jordan Love

• Love was also a waiver wire addition in many leagues at one point or another since he was drafted in 2020 and sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three years, even while battling contract disputes. Even after Rodgers was traded and Love was handed the starting role, I was not confident in Love becoming a viable starter in fantasy lineups and even questioned whether or not he could keep the starting position. As I wrote about two weeks ago, I've been impressed by the preseason play of Sean Clifford, the rookie behind Love in the lineup. That said, Love has also played well. He's played a lot more preseason reps than most starting quarterbacks. Still, he has led his team on touchdown drives and distributed the ball well to his first and second-year pass catchers, something I also thought would limit Love since his pass catchers are so inexperienced. Their inexperience has not been a problem in these preseason games. Love his pass catchers have command of the offense. He's looked well enough to prove that it's his job to lose, and it would take a few terrible outings to cause coach LaFleur to make a change. Rodger's understudy has every right to prove himself, especially after he's played so well in the preseason.

JaVonte Williams

• Sean Payton told reporters that Williams would play in the second preseason game, and he was not bluffing. He rushed the ball three times and had four catches on five targets, with a terrible dropped pass on the game's first possession, proving that Payton wanted Williams involved from the jump. Williams did not look amazing, but he proved that he's ready to play, and that's a thrill to his dynasty managers, who, at various times this offseason, thought he'd have a limited role until late in the season. Coach Payton will rotate his backs this season more than Williams' dynasty managers would like. Still, Samaje Perine will not dominate touches and fantasy production at the beginning of the season as most managers think. Williams and Perine should split carries about 50/50 to start the season. Still, Williams will be more involved in the passing game, making him the most productive fantasy back from week one, which is surprising and fantastic news for his dynasty managers.

Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson

• After finding himself in Coach Rivera's doghouse last season, Antonio Gibson seems poised for a more reliable role in the offense this season. In preseason games, Gibson and Robinson have had almost a 50/50 split in the first-team reps. I thought that Gibson would take the passing downs role, leaving the first and second down reps primarily for Robinson. However, Robinson has been involved in the passing game a lot during these preseason games, including Monday night's record-breaking win over the Ravens, who have not lost a preseason game since 2015. Robinson and Gibson are two of the best late-round running backs to draft in redraft leagues, but their split roles limit them to viable flex players in dynasty leagues. Even so, I've raised them both in my dynasty rankings since Gibson had fallen so far and Robinson looked like he'd be inactive in the passing game after his rookie season. They appear to be a tandem in another one of the NFL's genuinely split backfields. Even so, their dynasty stock is rising in my eyes. 

Jaylen Warren

• Warren is one of the most talked about players in the preseason after scoring touchdowns in two of their three preseason games, while data analysts punch holes in Najee Harris's production profile over the last two years. The buzz around Warren built up to the degree that the Steelers' offensive coordinator emphatically told reporters that Harris is their every-down back. The evidence is questionable, though, if judging just by preseason games where Warren was their third down back and was far more productive overall. Warren played much more than Harris in the preseason, but their first-team reps were close, with 16 for Harris and 12 for Warren. There's more competition for this backfield than the coaching staff is letting on, and that's why I'm pleased to have Warren as my second-most rostered player in my dynasty leagues on seven of my nine rosters.

Keaontay Ingram

• I'll boast when I am right, like I was with Warren, but I'll also admit when I'm wrong. A few weeks ago, I wrote about how Corey Clement was my favorite handcuff to James Conner. Still, after watching the Cardinals' second preseason game, it was obvious that Ingram is a far better back, and he should earn the backup role to Conner. He did nothing outstanding, but when watching the two of them in the same game, it was clear that Ingram's legs have the better burst. If I am wrong, I like to admit it. I recommended picking up Clement on the waiver wire a few weeks ago. I did, but now I've dropped him from all but my deepest of leagues. Ingram is unavailable on the waiver wire in my leagues, but managers who held on to him will get productive games this year. The Cardinals traded two more players away this week for draft picks, continuing to signal to the league that they're tanking this season. If they're tanking, expect younger players like Clayton Tune, Michael Wilson, and Ingram to have chances to prove themselves.   

Dameon Pierce

• I was not a fan of Pierce in rookie drafts last year. His college production was too weak for me to draft him where others were willing to based on his landing spot in Houston, where the backfield depth chart was wide open. I immediately regretted it as he started hot last year but felt more justified when injuries plagued him based on his workload. Now, however, I'm back to admitting I am wrong. His landing spot and opportunity are enough to prove me wrong. His skills and potential new involvement in the passing game will prove that I missed badly. Pierce was heavily involved in the first-team offense, even on passing downs, and he lost weight this year to be more involved in the passing game, which is what his new offensive coordinator wants and expects from him. When Houston signed Devin Singletary, I assumed they wanted a complimentary back, but now I think Singletary is just the backup, and Pierce is the every-down back for Houston, an offense that will improve significantly with its new coaches and quarterback. Pierce has now become a player I'll aim to trade for this week.

Tyjae Spears and Tank Bigsby

• Next week, I have my final rookie draft. It's the only league I have where we draft right before the season starts. Next week, I will readjust my rookie rankings after not moving them since May. I highly suspect Spears and Bigsby will be among the players I move up the most. Both will be early second-round picks for me after their incredible preseason performances. Spears had a ridiculously athletic touchdown last week, hurdling over a defender while increasing his yards per carry to 8.1. He's no Derrick Henry, but he has a different kind of quickness and juice. The Titans would be silly not to mix him into the rotation with Henry this season, not just to share Henry's carries but to give the defenses a completely new look out of the backfield. As for Bigsby, his drumbeat has been building since training camps started, and he's clearly earned a role that's beyond backing up Travis Etienne. Bigsby was once thought to be among the top devy league running backs. I always remember which players were in that category but later fell in the devy and dynasty rankings. I try to keep such players higher than most in my rankings, but I failed to do so with Bigsby. Like Spears, he'll bump way up in my dynasty rankings before my final rookie draft next week.

Sean Tucker

• Tucker has been one of my most targeted players after falling from a first-round ranked rookie before the Combine and NFL Draft to a 4th or 5th-round pick after going undrafted and signing a UDFA contract with the Buccaneers. Tucker would have been a day-two pick in the draft had teams not discovered a medical issue with his heart before the draft. He's since been cleared to play, and there is no doubt that he will make the team and, by season's end, compete for a starting role. Beat reports tweeted today that he was splitting reps with the first team this week after playing well in his second preseason game with 55 combined yards, including three catches for 18 yards. Tucker is the Buccaneers' best runner, and he's no slouch in the passing game either. Rachaad White may hold onto his role in the passing game, which is his strength, but Tucker is a far better runner and can compete with White as a pass-catcher. I'm confident Tucker will make the team next week and move up the depth chart quickly early in the season.

Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed

• Doubs didn't score in week two like in week one, but he received the Packers' biggest play, a 42-yard reception. The Doubs drumbeat has been steady during training camp. He and rookie tight end Luke Musgrave have become Love's favorite targets in training camp, and the preseason games have confirmed such reports. Jayden Reed has solidified the slot role for the Packers, and he's earning his shares of targets and was the recipient of a touchdown pass in week two of the preseason. Training camp reports are more glowing around Doubs, Reed, and Musgrave than they have been around Christian Watson, whose dynasty managers should be concerned. Doubs is the player I'm most trying to trade for this week. I'd offer an older receiver who will likely produce more this season than Doubs, but not in future seasons.

Dyami Brown

• Brown was a player I added as a stash after Monday night's game, where he scored a touchdown, and more importantly, Terry McLaurin was injured. In a 14-team league, I added him weeks ago after reports of rapport between him and his former college teammate, Sam Howell. Brown was a player l liked more than most dynasty managers, and  after drafted in the third round in a lot of 2021 rookie drafts. I even remember trading up to get him in one draft. He failed to earn a starting role when the depth chart was weak behind Terry McLaurin, so I dropped him from all of my leagues after Washington drafted Jahan Dotson. He has one last opportunity with his college quarterback at the helm, a possible lingering injury to McLaurin, and an aging Curtis Samuel ahead of him in the depth chart. He ran many routes with the first team on Monday and could press for a role. Granted, he's a deep sleeper at this point, but I added him to many of my teams after Monday night, and so did other savvy managers in my leagues where I could not afford to do so.

Chig Okonkwo

• After sneaking onto the scene last season, Chig is one of my most rostered players. He was targeted down the field more than any other tight end last year and showed incredible athleticism. If he could do that in his rookie season, I thought he would improve. I'm beginning to have my doubts, though. I don't want to read too much into it, but he had two terrible drops in his second preseason game. They were right in his hands. On the one hand, he was targeted and pretty far downfield for a tight end, but he dropped two out of the three passes that were right in his hands. When DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Titans, I knew Chig would get fewer targets than I hoped this year on a run-first team with Derrick Henry. The Treylon Burks injury could help his target share early in the season, but if so, he has to prove more reliable. I won't kill a guy after one bad game, especially when the team lacks targets. However, the target share has diminished with the Hopkins signing already, so Chig's dynasty value has consistently moved down this offseason, and his preseason week-two game did not help. I'm very willing to sell Chig, but I need a game or two with big catches like the ones he dropped before I can do so.

Cole Turner

• Turner, whom I admit I know nothing about, was my most added player this past week, especially in tight-end premium leagues. He was a prime target of Sam Howell in Monday night's game. Ourlads list him as third on the depth chart behind Logan Thomas and John Bates, but I saw enough on Monday night to believe he could play with the first team like he did on Monday. Logan Thomas continues to battle injuries, and while he was a former favorite of mine, his dynasty values are dying with his age. Honestly, I am uncertain why John Bates did not play. All I now know about Turner is that he looked good in my first game watching him, he's on a team with an easy depth chart to climb, and he scored 9 and 10 touchdowns in his last two seasons at Nevada. I added him in all my deep leagues except when a manager sniped me 10 minutes before I logged on to grab him.

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