Tue Sep 5th 2023

Rookie Risers and Fallers

This article is one of my favorites of the year. I love writing one last piece on the rookie risers and fallers after seeing them in action in preseason games, and I love it because it's my final offseason article. The NFL season begins this week, and dynasty games will be won and lost.

Every Labor Day Weekend, my oldest standing league of 25 years, The Dynasty Freeks League, hosts our rookie draft. It's my only draft that takes place after preseason games. Having one such league is enjoyable because rookies' values change significantly from May to September.

In preparation for this late rookie draft, I re-ranked the rookie class and compared it to where I had players ranked in May. In this final article offseason article, I will detail which players have risen and fallen five or more spots within the first three rounds in my superflex rookie rankings.

As for the rookie risers, I could draft many of them this weekend in my Freek League, which is a one-quarterback league, so I could draft a few of my risers even higher than where I have them ranked in my superflex leagues.

As for the rookie risers, I was able to draft a lot of them this weekend in my Freek League, which is a one-quarterback league, so I was able to draft a few of my risers even higher than where I have them ranked in my superflex leagues.

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Rookie Risers

Tyjae Spears - from 19th to 13th

• Spears was arguably the most outstanding player in the preseason. He ran for 117 yards on 22 carries in the preseason, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He was shifty and explosive and had the one touchdown run that grabbed dynasty managers' attention when he burst through the hole, huddled the oncoming defender, and then jogged into the endzone. With Derrick Henry in his way, Spears is a player dynasty managers will have to wait on, but if Henry gets injured, Spears will be an every-week starter. His preseason proved that his knee is fine, and he's worth mixing into the rotation even when Henry is healthy. I drafted him at pick twelve in my Freek draft this weekend after drafting Jahmyr Gibbs and Jordan Addison ahead of him in the first round. It's my first share of Spears because I could never draft him back when he was 19th in my rankings in May.

Tank Bigsby - from 20th to 14th

• Rivaling Spears as the player moving most of the draft board is Tank Bigsby. He also played in every preseason game. He carried the ball 28 times, compiling 159 yards on the ground, equalling 5.7 yards per carry. Bigsby seems in line to split the running back carries pretty evenly with Travis Eitienne and is, as expected, more likely to have the short-yardage role. He looked fantastic in the preseason, and his immediate role has moved him up my rookie rankings. Bigsby's hype was stronger than Spears', so in my Freek draft this weekend, I drafted Bigsby at 1.10 and Spears at 1.12, even though I had Spears ranked one spot higher. What a haul I collected in the first twelve picks of this rookie draft - Gibbs, Addison, Bigsby, and Spears!

Jayden Reed - from 22nd to 16th

• I already had Reed ranked in line or possibly higher than many dynasty managers because I drafted him in two of my previous eight rookie drafts, but he's moved up my rankings even more since May. He's moved up because he immediately earned the starting role in the slot for the Packers, and Jordan Love has both looked good and shown chemistry with Reed in the preseason. I am still concerned about trusting Jordan Love as a starter for the first time in his career, but he did look good in his preseason drives. Reed played with the starters in those drives and had four catches for 46 yards and an incredible catch for a touchdown. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay, so I think it will take time for him to become a reliable starter on dynasty rosters, but he has as good of a chance as any of the young targets in Green Bay to become Love's top target. In my draft this weekend, I selected him with pick #20, four spots past where I had him ranked.

Tank Dell - from 26th to 19th

• Unlike Reed, Tank Dell has not earned a starting role yet, but it's only a matter of time before he does. Noah Brown and Robert Woods do not pose long-term threats to his playing time. Maybe it's because we were football-starved, but Dell had one of the best preseason games in his debut with the Texans. He was uncoverable in that first game. I thought we'd see more of him in the final two preseason games, but the Texans were cautious with him after sustaining a soft tissue injury. He did, however, juke some guys out of their socks on a punt return. I've been banking on Dell to defy the odds and prove that a player his size can become a productive NFL receiver. He will be by midseason this year, if not sooner. I was pleased when Dell fell all the way to 28th to me in my draft this weekend and gladly added him to my team, nine spots past where I had him ranked.

Luke Musgrave - from 29th to 20th

• Like Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave immediately earned a starting role as the Packers' top tight end, and he was even more involved than Reed in the preseason passing game with the starters. He had a modest five catches for 36 yards on eight targets, but it was clear he would be a big part of their passing game. Musgrave is the last of the top-tier tight ends to target in rookie drafts. He goes later than Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and my guy, Michael Mayer, but he should not fall too far behind them. In my draft this weekend, Kincaid went 8th, LaPorta 11th, Mayer 22nd to me, and Musgrave 27th, far later than he should have been selected. Mayer and Musgrave both fell too far in this latest rookie draft.

Michael Wilson - from 60th to 21st

• Wilson has made the biggest preseason jump in my rankings, but it's not because he played great in the preseason. He didn't. He's moved up because 1) I mistakenly had him ranked way too low in my May rookie rankings, given his third-round draft capital, and 2) the Cardinals are taking and will play rookies ahead of veterans. Additionally, Wilson was a favorite of beat reporters in camp. I'm not a big believer, given his injuries in college, but he was a highly recruited guy, and that makes me want to take a chance on him at the end of the second round. He will get a lot of reps as a rookie, and that's something to value, even if that means you'll know sooner whether or not he can make it in the NFL. Ranking him 21st in September may be too high, given that he fell to 29th in my rookie draft this weekend. 

Puka Nacua - 35th to 30th

• I've written enough about Nacua recently, so I will only say a little here. Still, I had to be honest that I've moved him up even further than I had him ranked in May when I was already way ahead of the market and drafting him in almost every one of my leagues. He was already in line to see a lot of playing time this year, and now that Cooper Kupp has had a setback with his injury, Nacua will be an immediate starter in his rookie season on a team I expect to be playing from behind a lot. This weekend, I drafted Nacua for the 6th time when he was available for me at pick #32.

Deuce Vaughn - from 39th to 32nd

• I considered selecting Vaughn at pick #32 because I wanted one share and should diversify my shares of Nacua, but since I drafted Gibbs, Bigsby, and Spears already, I chose to pick a receiver. Vaughn was selected right after me at pick #33, as he should. Vaughn was electric in his preseason games and will complement Tony Pollard in the Dallas backfield. He'll need a Pollard injury to become a startable player in dynasty line-ups, but that's why we load our rosters with handcuffs and RB-2s. Vaughn is a great story and a perfect player to add to rosters in the third round. I am confident he will produce if he steps in for an injured Pollard.

Aidan O'Connell - from 66th to 34th

• O'Connell has been the biggest quarterback riser in superflex leagues. He looked fantastic throughout the preseason, looking very capable of taking over the offense if Jimmy Garoppolo gets injured or benched. He threw for 482 yards and three touchdowns while throwing no interceptions in the preseason. His 1238 pass attempts in four years at Purdue make him more ready than some of the other second-tier quarterbacks drafted in this class, and the competition ahead of him in Las Vegas is much weaker than that of others in this class. He looked great, and I'd be thrilled to have him on a superflex roster.

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Rookie Fallers

De'Von Achane - from 11th to 17th

• I was a hair lower on Achane than my dynasty managers in May. In many of my drafts, he was drafted ahead of Zach Charbonnet. I'm glad because when he was drafted ahead of him, Charbonnet fell to me. His lack of big plays in the offseason and his injury, given that was already a concern for him, given his size, have moved him further down my rankings as well. The Dolphins were in on both the Davin Cook and Jonathan Taylor stakes this offseason, indicating they are not entirely pleased with their backfield. Additionally, Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin looked great in the preseason games. They've since let Gaskin go, but they kept Ahmed, my most added player to my rosters over the last week. We did not see enough of Achane to say he's a bust, but there are plenty of reasons to move him down in the September rookie rankings. He was drafted 17th in my draft this weekend, where he routinely went in the first round or the first-second round turn in May drafts.

Marvin Mims - from 17th to 22nd

• One could argue that Mims' rookie rankings should be rising after seeing playing time in the third preseason game and catching a nice deep ball, given that Jerry Juedy will likely miss the first few weeks of the season. I, however, have not moved him up. I wouldn't say I have pushed him back, though. He's just been leapfrogged by some of the players mentioned above. Almost every player I mentioned as a riser was ranked behind Mims in my May rankings. Now, they have simply jumped him. My concern with Mims from the start is that he's a one-trick pony. He's excellent at the deep ball. That's fun to watch, but it's not something I like to bank on in wide receivers. I'd much rather have a guy who can become a possession receiver with his size or route running. I have no shares of Mims as a result. Others, however, really like him. He was drafted as the 14th pick of the draft this weekend.

Will Levis - from 15th to 23rd

• Levis did not look great in his first preseason action. What's worse is that Malik Willis, the quarterback the Titans drafted last year, improved after his terrible rookie campaign and played better than Levis. As the fourth quarterback taken in this year's draft and holding second-round draft capital compared to Willis' third-round capital, Levis is still a player worth taking in the late second round in superflex leagues. This weekend, in our one-quarterback league, he went undrafted. He has potentially two players to beat to win a starting role next year, but Ryan Tannehill's contract expires at the end of this season, so Willis may be the only one to beat next year. It will be a long wait, but he's worth a hold if he falls this late in superflex leagues.

Josh Downs - from 18th to 25th

• Like Mims, Downs was jumped by many of the risers I have written about, but that's not his only reason for falling. As I expected, Anthony Richardson's inaccuracy in college has remained the same in the few preseason drives we've seen in the NFL. Inaccuracy will be a problem for Richardson, which means it will be a problem for Downs. On the positive side, Downs has earned a starting role in the slot, which means he'll get targeted on shorter passes. Even so, Richardson's run-first mentality and inaccuracy are too big of a concern for me to keep Downs as a second-round draft pick. I now see him as a player to target in the early third. I have him ranked 25th, exactly where he was drafted this weekend.

Chase Brown - from 27th to 36th

• Brown has slowly fallen down my rookie rankings after not receiving any training camp buzz from beat reports and not playing well in the preseason games. Additionally, Joe Mixon signed a new contract after the rookie drafts in May and was cleared of his league troubles. Brown had every chance to stand out the last few months while Trayveon Williams, Mixon's top backup, was injured, but Brown did nothing to impress. I love his college production. It made me think he could be a between-the-tackles thumper in the NFL, but he's not taken advantage of his opportunities thus far, and no one is talking about him, which is a bad sign. I drafted him once at the end of the third round in May, thinking it was a steal, but now that is a fair price, though he still went way earlier in my draft this weekend, where he was drafted 23rd.

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