Tue Jun 17th 2025

This year's (player) will be (player)

As we enter the break period between OTAs and Training Camp, I thought it would be fun to speculate on possible breakout players in 2025 by comparing them to the types of players that broke out in 2024. Last year, many players with unique backgrounds surprised dynasty managers with their production, causing their dynasty stock to rise significantly as a result. Many players will likely follow the same pathways in 2025 as their peers did in 2024.

In this article, I examine the pathways taken by breakout players in 2024 and compare them to those of players with similar breakout trajectories this season. I'm not writing for mere entertainment value. I expect many of these predictions to come true. They're players I've already bet on by drafting or holding on rosters and players I would like to acquire in trades as the 2025 season approaches.

This Year's Bo Nix Will Be Tyler Shough

• While last year's quarterback class was far superior to this year's class, Tyler Shough was the last quarterback drafted with a highly likely chance to start, just as Bo Nix was last year. Both players were extremely old when they were drafted; Nix was 23, and Shough was 25. The positive way of looking at their age is to say they have plenty of experience. Nix played five college seasons and threw the most college passes of any quarterback drafted in the history of the NFL. Shough playerd seven years of college but threw fewer passes since he lost so many games to injuries. Nix was named the starter from game one, and he finished his surprising season as the 7th highest scoring quarterback in the league behind only Jayden Daniels in his rookie class. Shough is also likely to earn the starting role in game one and have every opportunity to be the highest-scoring rookie quarterback in his much smaller class. I don't expect Shough to be nearly as productive as Nix was in his rookie season, especially since he is not an excellent runner like Nix. Still, he could easily finish among the top half of the league in quarterback points this season, which would be a smashing success from where he gets drafted in rookie drafts. I just bought him in a superflex rookie draft auction for $301. Cam Ward went for $851, and Jaxson Dart, who I also bought, for $550.  Shough's price in rookie drafts is a bargain, as was Nix's last season, and I believe he can be the most productive of everyone in his class by the end of the season.

This Year's Sam Darnold Will Be Daniel Jones

• Sam Darnold had the best season of his career in his first and only year with Minnesota last season, and Daniel Jones will do the same in his first season with Indianapolis. Darnold finished 8th in total points last season, just behind Bo Nix, after landing with a team and coach who knew how to utilize his strengths and scheme up an offense around him. Kevin O'Connell is a quarterback whisperer. While the same cannot be said for Shane Steichen, he is an offensively minded coach, and the Colts added Jones for a reason. From day one, they have been clear that he was brought in to compete with Anthony Richardson, and for now, he has the lead while Richardson battles another injury to the same shoulder. Who knows what would have taken place in Minnesota if J.J. McCarthy not been lost for the season, but Sam Darnold made the most of the opportunity presented to him last season, and now he's a starter again for the Seahawks. Jones can do the same thing for himself this season, and I believe he will, even if Richardson gets healthy. I've felt that from the moment he signed with the Colts. I do not think he can have the kind of year that Darnold had last year, but I believe he can have the best year of his career and establish himself as a starter within the NFL, earning a long-term contract with the Colts. He's a better passer than Richardson, and while he lacks Richardson's power in the run game, he's still an excellent runner. Jones can keep the offense ahead of the chains and move better than Richardson can, and he will prove it this season. I'm glad I held him on several of my rosters, even in one-quarterback leagues, and I plan to trade for him before he gets named the starter.

This Year's Bucky Irving Will Be Cam Skattebo

• Everyone believes that Bhayshul Tuten will be this year's Bucky Irving, given the same coach that drafted them, but I am calling Cam Skettebo this year's Bucky Irving. Like Bucky, Cam was a fourth-round draft pick, and like Bucky, he has a solid and well-balanced back ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, just as Bucky proved he could be more effective in the run and pass game by the end of the season and replace Rashaad White, Cam will do the same with Tyrone Tracy this season. What Bucky and Cam share in common is their productivity in the run and pass game. They excelled in both in college. Both backs had incredibly productive final two seasons in college after transferring from other schools. They each have a chip on their shoulder and have risen collegiate depth charts on new teams. Bucky did it again in the NFL, and Cam will, too. I don't predict Cam to finish the season as the 14th highest-scoring running back as Bucky did in his rookie season, but I expect Cam to win the starting job and finish as an every-week starter in dynasty lineups by the end of the season. I'm pleased to have drafted Skattebo in a few leagues, including paying $302 for him in my most recent rookie auction.

This Year's Chuba Hubbard Will Be Jaylen Warren

• The comparison between Hubbard and Warren is not as straightforward, given Jonathan Brooks's injury last season. However, both had more highly drafted running backs selected ahead of them in each of the previous two years, in seasons when they both appeared to have their first opportunity for a starting role. Brooks's injury allowed Hubbard to retain his starting role, but given how well he played last year, he could have won the starting role even if Brooks had been healthy. Hubbard had the best season of his four-year career, finishing 15th in points per game, and he earned a new contract with the Panthers as a result of his excellent performance. Jaylen Warren has the same opportunity ahead of him. He is in a contract year and has his first opportunity with a leading role after the Steelers did not re-sign Najee Harris. But the Steelers also drafted Kaleb Johnson in the third round, making his future with the team uncertain. Even so, Warren will pull off exactly what Hubbard did last year, fending off his competition and earning a new contract with the team. Warren is far more diverse in his skillset, whereas Johnson is just a downhill runner. Johnson cannot replace Warren's full role, and his versatility will keep him on the field more than Johnson this season. I don't predict that Warren will be a top-15 scoring back like Hubbard was last season, but he will be a top-24 scoring back and worthy of a starting position on dynasty rosters. Every year, one or more of the highly drafted running backs fails to live up to his hype. That will be Johnson in this year's class. I'm pleased to have Warren as one of my most rostered players and look forward to seeing him prove himself this season.

This Year's Chase Brown Will Be Braelon Allen

• Chase Brown took advantage of the opportunity in his second year and established himself as the future RB-1 in Cincinnati. On my most controversial take in this article, I say Braelon Allen can do the same on the Jets this season. Brown's depth chart was much easier to climb last year, with just Zack Moss to surpass. While Allen has Breece Hall to surpass. In his favor, the Jets have a new coaching staff that did not draft Hall, so they have no loyalty to him. Additionally, they have already indicated that they want to adopt a committee approach, and rumors have even spread that Hall is on the trading block. The coaching staff has quieted trade rumors, but the competition remains. Hall's productivity was way down last year. He had the lowest total yards and yards per carry last season and only one game with more than 100 yards rushing. He converted only 53.8% of short-yardage situations, too. Allen did not do anything outstanding in his rookie season, but his college production and early college breakout age make me believe he has every chance to compete for the starting role this season. I plan to make numerous trade offers for Allen before the season starts, offering other RB-2s with perceived more upside or RB-2 handcuffs to managers in hopes of adding Allen to my teams. The time to strike is now, and if I am correct in this prediction, I will benefit greatly by making such trades.

This Year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba Will Be Rome Odunze

• I admit to selecting the chalk on this prediction. Odunze is everyone's prediction to be the second-year breakout at wide receiver. Last year, JSN still had Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to compete with, but he surpassed them, becoming Seattle's top wide receiver. Seattle was so confident in this second-year performance that they let Lockett go in free agency and traded Metcalf. Odunze competed for catches in his rookie season with Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore, and they outperformed him in year one. They have since let Allen go in free agency, but they added target competition by drafting Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. The Bears' offense is expected to improve dramatically under Ben Johnson, and Odunze is likely to benefit the most. Coach Johnson has hinted at his disappointment with Moore's effort, and Loveland and Burden have fallen behind in their development after missing time in OTAs already. Odunze is poised to hit the ground running in his second year and become the top target in the passing game. I tried to pick a player other than Odunze since everyone is suggesting he's the JSN of this season, but I had to be honest, as I am with all of these predictions, and I believe Odunze is the guy this year, as obvious as it seems. I am very disappointed not to have a share of Odunze, and the common expectation of his coming breakout year makes him a difficult player to buy.  

This Year's Terry McLaurin Will Be Chris Olave

• McLaurin had the best year of his career last year after scoring 13 touchdowns from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.  He gained the best quarterback of his career and made the most of it, nearly doubling his season-high in touchdowns. McLaurin was always a fantastic player, but he never played in a productive offense and struggled to score touchdowns until last season. Olave is not a perfect one-to-one comparison. His lack of productivity is based primarily on his injury history. What makes them similar is their bad quarterback play and difficulty scoring touchdowns. Olave has scored 5, 4, and 1 touchdown in his three seasons. Another similarity is that they are both excellent route runners who have been underutilized in their offenses. It would be completely unfair to say that Tyler Shough will improve the Saints' offense as Jayden Daniels did in Washington. Still, it would be very fair to say that the addition of Kellen Moore as the play-caller in the offense will radically improve the passing game, just as the addition of Kliff Kingsbury did for Washington. New Orleans has been handicapped on offense with the coaching staff Olave inherited when drafted, but the page has turned, and if he can stay healthy, he can become a 13-touchdown player this season and finally live up to his first-round potential. Olave was one of my most drafted receivers in his rookie year, and I even traded for JSN, along with a first-round draft pick, on a rebuilding team. I have not given up on him yet. This is his year!

This Year's Jauan Jennings Will Be Darnell Mooney

• Jennings's breakout season as a 27-year-old was one of the biggest surprises of the year last year. I added him off the waiver wire in a few leagues last season. He took advantage of a few injuries and became a key part of the 49ers' passing game. He had five or more catches in eight of the fifteen games he played, becoming a reliable wide receiver in deep dynasty lineups. While Mooney is far less of a come-out-of-nowhere player, having some modestly productive seasons under his belt, he has never become a consistent starter in dynasty lineups. However, he will this season, in his 27-year-old season. He'll be the Falcons' second-most targeted player next season with little competition behind him. The offense will improve significantly under Michael Penix after Kirk Cousin struggled last year. After having his second-most productive season last year, this year will be a career-best. I've already made some modest trade offers for Mooney, but I've yet to finalize a deal. I'll keep trying, though.

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