Tue Sep 3rd 2024

NFL Cuts And Dynasty Implications

It's the last week of the offseason! Next week, we'll have wins and losses and NFL games to discuss. The last week of the offseason means one thing: Roster cuts. NFL teams have to trim their rosters to 53, and in many dynasty leagues, managers also have to make cuts. Cut day is the final evaluation point for dynasty managers. The moves teams make cause the dynasty value of back-end players to drop significantly, making them dropable from dynasty rosters. At the same time, moving teams gives dynasty managers hope for other players. It's the last inflection point of the offseason. Here, I present my thoughts from a dynasty perspective on the trades and roster cuts teams made last week.

Jahan Dotson

• Dotson was one of "my guys" in the 2022 class. I drafted him in many leagues and even traded for him last year when his dynasty value seemed its lowest. Sadly, I have given up on Dotson and dropped from several of my rosters this week. In Washington, he had a chance to become the second most targeted player on the team. After being traded to Philadelphia, at best, he'll be the third most targeted player after A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and may even fall to fourth behind Dallas Goedert. He'll help the Eagles and give them another weapon, but he won't produce reliable fantasy points weekly.
• Dotson's absence in Washington allows Dyami Brown to revive his dynasty value. After watching Brown make a few good plays in the preseason and start in two receiver sets with the starters, I added Brown to my roster in many leagues a week or two ago. That proved smart. After the trade, I added him to a few more leagues, and he made my roster cuts in all of those leagues. I want to see how the Washington offense develops under Jayden Daniels and if Brown can become their second-most targeted receiver behind Terry McLaurin.

Samaje Perine

• As expected, Perine was released by the Broncos. Unexpectedly, he quickly signed with the Chiefs. His dynasty value dipped, but they quickly rose again. The RB-2 role in Kansas City is wide open. Clyde Edwards-Hellaire (CEH) has battled mental health issues this offseason but made the roster. Carson Steele made several excellent plays in the preseason, and Deneric Prince was cut. CEH, Steele, and Perine will battle for a significant role in the offense. Coach Reid has already praised Perine, and he'll be ready to play in week one. He's worth rostering again in dynasty leagues.

Malik Washington

• Washington was electric in the preseason, and a door was opened for him to see earlier playing time than expected after River Craycraft was placed on IR and Odell Beckham on PUP.  Braxton Berrios is the only healthy receiver ahead of him, and Washington can make far more big plays than Berrios. I loved Washington's college tape, especially his last season, but I hated that he fell in the draft and landed in Miami, a team with a loaded depth chart. Now it's not so deep, and he has a chance to play early. Dynasty managers should keep him on their rosters to see how coach McDaniel wants to use him.

Drake Maye

• I drafted Maye twice this year and hoped he could earn a starting role when the season started. He played well enough in the preseason to earn the starting role, but the team has named Jacoby Brissett their starter. I think they know their offensive line is a weakness, so they don't want to subject Maye to injury or unnecessary pressure early in his career. Maye will start for the Patriots soon enough, though. Brissett will have a hard time moving this offense, and the pressure will mount to see their first-round pick on the field.

Nick Chubb and D'Onta Foreman

• As expected, Chubb was placed on the PUP list. Unexpectedly, Foreman was cut. That left the Browns depth chart to Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong for a moment. A few days later, Foreman was added back to the team. I'm unsure what the Browns think of their running back depth chart, except that Ford is their workhorse again to start the season. I still believe in Chubb and that he will take over by the end of the season. They will bring Chubb back slowly. Ford will be a reliable starter in dynasty lineups to start the season, and we'll have to see who the teams see as their RB-2 until Chubb returns. I assumed it was Foreman, but the Browns' moves last week make me uncertain.

John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson

• Houston has one of the league's most loaded wide receiver depth charts. I was eager to see who they cut, who they kept, or who they traded. They did not trade anyone. Instead, they cut Noah Brown and kept Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie, and Robert Woods. In shallow leagues, Metchie and Hutchinson can be cut. Robert Woods can be cut in almost every dynasty league. In deeper leagues, however, Hutchinson and Metchie are worth rostering. Stefon Diggs is 31, and the Texans can get out of his contract next year. If his play falls off and the team moves on from him, either Metchie or Hutchinson will become a starter next year.

Tim Patrick and Isaiah Williams

• Tim Patrick was a surprise cut by the Broncos, giving Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims more opportunities in Denver and a little boost to their dynasty value. Patrick quickly signed with Detroit to work on their practice squad. I have no doubt that he will move up to the active roster quickly and compete for the WR-3 spot that Kalif Raymond currently holds. The Lions cut Donavan Peoples-Jones and several other receivers but notably kept Isaiah Williams. I enjoyed Williams' college film and production at Illinois. He was my 72nd-ranked rookie in this class after he signed as an undrafted free agent in Detroit. He's a sneaky player that I added to a few of my rosters in leagues with taxi squads last week. The Lions kept him while cutting others, so we know they like him, too.

Taylor Heinicke

• Heinicke was traded to the Chargers and immediately became Justin Herbert's backup after Easton Stick played so poorly in the preseason. I quickly added him to one of my rosters in a superflex league. Herbert returned to practice, but plantar fascia injuries can come back. If Herbert misses time this season, Heinicke can keep the offense moving better than Stick could. As for Atlanta, their willingness to trade him proves they're confident in Michael Penix Jr. if Kirk Cousins gets injured this season.

Dalvin Cook

• The Cowboys added Dalvin Cook, giving him a chance to compete in one of the weakest backfields in the league. He has to prove something on the field before I would be interested in him. The Cowboys are rolling with Rico Dowdle, who should get the bulk of the work, and Zeke Elliot who should get used in short-yardage situations. Amazingly, after the long preseason with opportunities to add more talented running backs, the Cowboys are rolling with these guys. As weak as they are, I doubt Cook will help my Cowboys or dynasty managers this season.

Hendon Hooker

• Hooker played well enough in the preseason to secure the backup role behind Jared Goff. The Lions cut Nate Sudfeld and are only rostering Goff and Hooker. Hooker is now a player worth rostering in deep superflex leagues. Managers who kept him on their taxi squad last year are now an injury away from having a surprise starting quarterback, if only for this season. When Detroit drafted Hooker, many people thought it was to become Goff's successor, but Goff has played far too well to lose his job to Hooker. Instead, Goff was offered a new contract. Hooker is not the succession plan for Goff, but he's a backup quarterback worth rostering in deep superflex leagues.

Malik Willis

• The Packers made a surprise trade for Malik Willis and immediately dropped Sean Clifford and Michael Pratt, making Willis the only backup to Jordan Love. I thought Clifford faired well in preseason games last year, so I added him to two of my deep superflex rosters and had him in a third superflex roster where Jordan Love is one of my starters. He did not play well this preseason, so the Packers were eager to part with him. I also dropped Clifford in every league last week, and I traded for Willis in the league where I have Love because he could be productive if Love gets injured, even if just with his legs. The Willis trade also means that Mason Rudolph is the lone backup to Will Levis, making Rudolph a quarterback worth adding in deep superflex leagues.

Johnny Mundt

• Here's a deep dive for you. Mundt has emerged as the starting tight end for Minnesota, moving ahead of Josh Oliver. T.J. Hockenson was placed on IR, leaving a big window of opportunity for Mundt, if only for the start of the season. After receiving training camps buzz, I added him to one of my rosters in my deepest league, which is also a tight-end premium. I added Josh Oliver first, but now I have added Mundt, too. Last week, I added him to my other tight-end premium league roster to see how he starts the season. It's the bottom of the barrel, but in super deep tight-end premium leagues, he's worth a roster spot until Hockenson is cleared to play.

Jordan Mason

• Perhaps no single player has gained more dynasty value late in the offseason than Mason. Christian McCaffrey has been sidelined with a calf injury, and Elijah Mitchell was injured all off-season, too. Last week, Mitchell was placed on season-ending IR, and the 49ers cut Cody Schrader, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and Matt Breida. Mason looked great in the preseason and has locked up the RB-2 role for the 49ers. McCaffrey's injury is scary and can easily come back at any point of the season. If so, managers wise enough to hold Mason on their roster or pick him up this offseason will be richly rewarded.

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