Sun Aug 16th 2020
My Most-Owned Players
Players I Own In 50% Of My Leagues
As a rule, I am not afraid to be overexposed to players that I like. Many of my teams look similar to each other because when I believe in a player, I draft him or trade to get him. That said, it's hard to own every player I like because other owners want the same players and draft them ahead of my in rookie or start-up drafts and won't sell them in a trade. I try to get them in a trade, but I will not overpay.
I am currently in eight dynasty leagues, and I recently decided to look over all of my teams to determine the players I own the most. Every year, I do this to give myself a chance to be honest about whether my overexposure to these players is wise or unwise. I do this to remember what I thought when I acquired those players and consider if the process was sound or made a mistake along the way. I recommend this annual process for all dynasty owners.
Here you can read my thoughts about the players I own in 50% of my dynasty leagues, as I try to be honest about my current value compared to the moves I made to get them.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Winston in two start-up drafts, adopted him in one orphan team that I took over, and traded Jared Goff for Winston midseason last year when Winston was tearing it up, and Goff was struggling.
- What do I think of him now? I was riding high with all of my Winston shares last year. His fantasy value was rising the previous year, even as his NFL value was diminishing. He finished last year as the third-ranked quarterback in six points per touchdown leagues, with his 5100 yards passing and 33 touchdowns. He had an aggressive head coach in Bruce Arians and the most productive wide receivers in the league last year in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The future looked bright. Even his 30 interceptions could not keep his fantasy value down, or so I thought. I was shocked when the Buccaneers refused to sign him to a new contract and more astounded that he was not quickly picked up by a team that needed a starting quarterback. His dynasty value plummeted as a result. He was a top-10 quarterback during the season last year, but now he is my 28th ranked quarterback. If he was not going to be signed to compete for a starting position, he could not have landed in a better spot as a back-up quarterback in New Orleans. Drew Brees is almost certainly in the last year of his contract, given that he has already signed a television contract for next season. However, Winston only signed a one-year deal, so he will have to prove himself in the locker room and on the practice field to sign a long-term contract in New Orleans to become the successor to Brees. I imagine Winston will get some playing time this season in the 4th quarter of blowout games and could start games if the 41-year-old Brees gets injured like he did last year. I do not believe Taysom Hill is Brees's back-up or groomed to take over the position after Brees retires, as evidenced by Teddy Bridgewater's starts when Brees was injured last year the signing of Winston this offseason. Winston's dynasty value has taken an enormous hit but could rebound significantly a year from now if Brees retires, and Winston signs a new contract with New Orleans.
- What am I looking to do with him? I plan to keep Winston on all of my rosters next year, and I only own him in one-quarterback leagues. I can't sell him at this point, so the only options are to hold him or drop him. I plan to keep him. I am sure this is contrary to what other owners will do. It will be interesting to see if Winston gets cut in leagues where I do not own him when rosters get trimmed back before the season starts. If so, I may pick him up off waivers. I have capable quarterbacks ahead of him in every league where I own him, so I do not mind waiting a year to see what takes place. He'll be a dead spot on my roster, but so are many rookies and second-year players on my teams. I just have to make myself see him like a rookie quarterback that is learning behind a veteran before getting his opportunity. Only with this "rookie," he's already been a top-three fantasy producer.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Allen in three leagues and adopted him in an orphan team that I picked up.
- What do I think of him now? Keenan Allen is one of my favorite fantasy players of all time. He's perennially a top-12 wide receiver at the end of the season, even though he's not a touchdown producer. He's a PPR monster who racks up yards, providing a consistent floor every week. He's had 102, 97, and 104 catches and 1393, 1196, and 1199 yards the last three seasons. That's consistency! I drafted Allen in the second round of three start-up drafts and have started him almost every week of his career, minus the lost 2016 season to injury. He and Phillip Rivers had an incredible connection, which is why in three of the leagues where I own Allen, I also own Rivers, helping me stack points. All of that fantasy goodness has come to a bitter end with Rivers leaving for Indianapolis and the Chargers relying on the much more conservative Tyrod Taylor or their rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert. These circumstantial changes have caused me to drop Allen to number 18 in my rankings, whereas he was a top-ten wide receiver for years.
- What am I looking to do with him? I still believe in Allen's talent. He's one of the best pure route-running receivers in the league. Tyrod Taylor won't throw the anticipatory passes as Rivers could, but he can hit open guys, and Allen will get free all the time. I will still start Allen every week in my start-three wide receivers leagues until Taylor or the Chargers prove that they are not going to take advantage of his skills. I have entertained trade offers for Allen this offseason for top-half first-round draft picks and for younger wide receivers but have not been able to strike a deal. I still value Allen higher than most owners. Allen is the peak of his career and is looking to sign one last big contract after this season, as evidenced by his recent Twitter spats. He's motivated to prove he's still a top tier wide receiver. He is.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Landry in two leagues and traded Tyler Boyd to get him in two leagues before the 2018 season.
- What do I think of him now? Much of what I said about Kennan Allen, I would say about Jarvis Landry. Landry is just one tier below Allen. Instead of providing annual top-twelve finishes, Landry offers steady top-24 finishes. He's as reliable as they get from year to year and has never missed a game to injury. After his rookie year, he has scored 229, 196, 204, 196, 189, and 204 fantasy points. That's what I call consistency! That's what I want in a WR-2 on my dynasty rosters, which is why I have Landry ranked as my #25 wide receiver.
- What am I looking to do with him? Landry has held steady in my rankings from year to year. His consistent floor but limited ceiling make him less of a trade target in most owners' eyes, but I traded for him in two leagues, both straight-up trades for Tyler Boyd, who some owners believe has a higher upside. Of course, I try to buy players whose dynasty stock will rise, but I often trade for safe commodities. That's what Landry is for me, which is why he will be in my starting line-up every week for the years to come.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Cooks in two leagues and traded for him in two other leagues. I traded Antonio Brown for Cooks during the 2019 offseason when Brown acted like a fool, even before he signed with Oakland. I saw the writing on the wall with Brown and got out at the right time. Then I traded a 2020 second-round rookie pick for after his poor season last year and before he was traded to Houston.
- What do I think of him now? Cooks dynasty value has had more peaks and valleys than almost anyone as he's been traded three times by NFL teams. The thing is that he's produced with every team right away. After his 216 fantasy point season in New Orleans, he scored 194 points in New England, followed by 218 in Los Angeles. After his rookie season, he has only had one bad season. That was last year in Los Angeles when he only scored 99 fantasy points. People label him injury prone, but he has only missed four games in the previous five years. I am excited about Cooks's opportunity in Houston. Cooks is one of the fastest wide receivers in the league and is excellent getting open on broken plays and extended plays, which is where Deshaun Watson excels. Cooks's value has dropped slightly in my receiver rankings, but I still have him ranked #30.
- What am I looking to do with him? Cooks is one of the players I have seen traded the most this offseason. I've been on the buying end, as I mentioned above. I'm not looking to move Cooks off my rosters since his value is as low as it has ever been, but I would consider it if he starts the season strong and appears to be Watson's number one target over Will Fuller. That said, I'd only sell him at a hefty price because I've never dropped his value too much, to begin with, and he's only 26 years old and signed a four-year contract with Houston.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Anderson in three of my more recent start-up drafts and picked him up off waivers when he first started to break out in New York, outbidding other owners in that league.
- What do I think of him now? I value Anderson far more than any dynasty analyst I've seen. I have Anderson ranked as my #47 wide receiver while the analysts at Dynasty League Football have him ranked #63 in their composite rankings, rankings as high as 58 and low as 70. I don't reach for Anderson in start-up drafts. He just falls to me at a place where I am glad to take him. I picked him at pick 206 in the 15th round of my most recent start-up draft. I like that Carolina signed him to a team with a coach familiar with his talent and a new innovative offensive coordinator. Matt Rhule coached Anderson at Temple University, and Joe Brady was the offensive coordinator on the highest scoring collegiate offense of all time last year at LSU. The depth chart is crowded in Carolina with D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, but I believe Carolina will primarily play eleven personnel, allowing Anderson to get plenty of playtime.
- What am I looking to do with him? Anderson is going to be a bye-week fill-in or a flex play on my rosters, but he has the highest upside and trade value if he is used as I expect he will be on his new team. He is a player I'd be willing to trade, but only if his value spikes. I already value him way higher than the market, so I need others to catch up before considering a trade. For now, I am happy to hold him and see how the new Carolina offense looks.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Goedert in one league, traded for him in as a throw-in on a package deal in another league, and picked him off of waivers midway through the 2018 season in two leagues where the owners got impatient and missed his breakout season last year.
- What do I think of him now? Based on talent alone, I have Goedert ranked as my #8 dynasty tight end, even though he is buried behind Zach Ertz, who I have ranked #5. Philadelphia runs 12 personnel more than almost any team in the NFL, Wentz loves his tight ends, and coach Doug Peterson designs plays to his tight ends more than any coach. Goedert finally became a startable fantasy tight end last year. Goedert finished 10th in fantasy points last year while his teammate Ertz finished 5th. I think they can do something similar in the years to come. Both Ertz and Goedert are signed through 2021, at which time I believe Philadelphia will sign one and release the other. If Philadelphia signs Goedert and lets Ertz go, his value will skyrocket. If they sign Ertz and let Goedert go, he will sign a big contract with another team and become the starters from day one.
- What am I looking to do with him? In all of the leagues where I have Goedert, I had other tight ends starting ahead of him (Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and Hooper), so Goedert is more a longterm play for me. I will often start him alongside Kelce in my tight-end premium league. If Ertz gets injured, Goedert will immediately become a starter for me or a tradable asset, especially to the Ertz owner. If I have to wait for Philadelphia to decide on their tight ends, I am happy to wait to see him break out or trade him.
- How did I acquire him? I drafted Doyle in my three most recent start-up drafts, each of the last three years. I also picked him up off of waivers two years ago during Eric Ebron's breakout year with the Colts.
- What do I think of him now? Doyle's dynasty value has bounced up and down over the last few years. Andrew Luck, who targeted tight ends a lot, especially in the red-zone, made his value rise early in his career. Then Indianapolis signed Eric Ebron as a free agent, and Ebron scored all of the touchdowns, causing many dynasty owners to drop Doyle from their rosters. Andrew Luck's sudden retirement dropped Doyle's value even more. He's only seen a slight increase in value this season after Pittsburg signed Eric Ebron Indianapolis signed Phillip Rivers. Those realities lead me to believe this is going to be a breakout year for Doyle. Rivers has made tight ends a value throughout his career, and there is no competition for tight end targets this year. I am not worried about the Colts signing Trey Burton. Doyle is a more complete tight end and will get most of the snaps in this run-first offense.
- What am I looking to do with him? Doyle is not a tradable asset, but he's also not dropable, in my opinion. I think he could make spot starts on my teams that lack an every-week starter. I have Jared Cook ahead of him in two of my leagues, and I could see choosing to start Doyle over Cooks some week this year. I have Ertz ahead of him in two of my leagues, so he is just a depth piece on these leagues and would only start if Ertz was injured. If I am wrong, and Doyle is not a consistent part of the offense this year, then I will happily drop him from my teams and rely on younger tight ends as depth on my rosters, tight ends like Blake Jarwin, Chris Herndon, and Ian Thomas who can be better longterm options with higher upside.
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