Tue Aug 20th 2024

May to August Rookie Rankings Changes

One of my favorite weekends of the year is Labor Day weekend when I get together with managers of my oldest standing league (27 years) and best friends from college to hang out on Lake LBJ and have our rookie draft.  Sadly, only six of the ten managers and friends can attend in person this year, and we had to reschedule for the weekend before Labor Day. Given the conflicts, we've decided to do a slow draft this week instead, but we will still enjoy time on the lake the weekend before Labor Day.

I enjoy having one rookie draft during or after training camps and preseason games because you can allow training camp reports and preseason games to affect your rookie rankings. Having this one very late rookie draft gives me a chance to compare my rookie rankings from May, when the rest of my rookie drafts take place, to August, after we have more data points from training camps and preseason games.

Our rookie draft starts Monday, so I reranked the rookie class last weekend. In this article, I note the risers and fallers in my rankings from August compared to May. I'm writing this article before I've watched all of the week-two preseason games, so my rankings may change a bit more after I can watch all the preseason games. As for now, these are the biggest risers and fallers after training camps and week one of the preseason.

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Rookie Risers

Brian Thomas Jr. - From 16th to 13th

• I was lower on Thomas than every dynasty analyst and manager back in May, and I am likely still lower on him now, but I have moved him up three spots after glowing camp reports. My concern with Thomas is that he is a one-trick pony who can only win with speed and big plays. It's still my concern, but camp reports say he's doing just that. In joint practices this week, reporters said he was getting behind everyone who attempted to cover him. The reports have caused me to move him up my rankings, though his target competition in Jacksonville still has him muted in my rankings compared to others. I still don't think I will get a share of him in my Freek's draft this week.

Ja'Lynn Polk - From 21st to 17th

• In my May rankings, I had Polk ranked lower than most dynasty analysts and managers because I was so confident in Javon Baker's ability to win a starting role. As you'll read later, Baker is among the fallers in my rankings, given his preseason role and primarily because of his many drops in camp and preseason games. Polk has had better reports from camp and more substantial roles in the preseason games. It's a modest move up of four spots, but the distance between him and Baker in my rookie rankings has increased significantly.

Ben Sinnott - From 25th to 21st

• Sinnott has moved up my rankings after his impressive first preseason game, and others have fallen in my rankings. The Commanders have been expressive in their praise and plans for Sinnott since they drafted him. I've grown more confident in their plans to use him as a multi-faceted weapon. I thought Zach Ertz would hold Sinnott back this season and make for a slow start to his career, but I'm less sure of that now. I'm more willing to draft Sinnott, even if it takes him a year to become a starter in dynasty lineups. Jayden Daniels's first solid preseason game also gave Sinnot a little bump in my rankings.

Tyrone Tracy - From 37th to 22nd

• Tracy received a huge rankings bump after clearly earning the RB-2 role in New York, and the coaches' comments in the offseason Hard Knocks show factored in my favoring him, too. He was the clear RB-2 in his first preseason game and looked great. He's an RB-2 with one of the weakest RB-1s ahead of him in Devin Singletary. He's not only an injury away from a starter, but he also has a chance to compete in a starting role, which compelled me to move him far up my rankings. Thankfully, his injury scare last week seems to have passed. He's ready to enter the season as the Giants' RB-2.

Will Shipley - From 41st to 23rd

• Shipley has looked fantastic in the preseason and appears to be set to earn the RB-2 role behind the oft-injured Saquon Barkley. The Eagles rotate their backs more than most teams, so he'll have a role in the offense even when Barkley is healthy. He's been great as a runner, receiver, and pass protector in his preseason games. I was concerned with his draft capital and landing spot, but now I wonder if he could become the future lead back in Philadelphia in a year or two. He was a top college recruit; this fact and the preseason games and camp reports have moved him up my rankings this month.

Jalen McMillan - From 27th to 24th

• McMillan's training camp reports have been spectacular, and he's already moved into the WR-3 role in projected depth charts. He had a few nice plays in his first preseason game, too. I'm sure the Buccaneers will let Chris Godwin go in free agency after this season, so McMillan has a year to wait for a prominent role, but it's definitely coming. I was already higher on McMillan than other dynasty analysts and managers, and I've moved him up even more after his strong start in training camp.

Braelon Allen - From 49th to 26th

• Second to Brock Bowers's landing in Las Vegas, Braelon Allen's landing in New York was my least favorite draft-day landing spot. He got drafted to a team with a top-three dynasty running back, locking him in as an RB-2 for the rest of his career. Add to that the fact that I was extremely high on Israel Abanikanda and doubted that Allen could definitively beat him out to become the RB-2. I was wrong because camp reports came out very early in camp to say that Allen quickly sealed up the RB-2 role. Then came preseason week one, when Allen looked like one of the best rookies in the class. He smashed in his first preseason game and shot up my rankings. I'm disappointed I don't have a share of Allen and missed the mark on him after his falling draft capital and landing spot.

Bucky Irving - From 43rd to 29th

• Like I thought Abanikanda blocked Allen's upside in New York, I thought Sean Tucker would block Irving. Irving has surpassed Tucker to quickly become the RB-2 behind Rachaad White if their first preseason game is any indication. I was cautious about Irving's draft capital and size, but he looked quick and powerful in his first preseason game. The Buccaneers have proven they know how to use a versatile back, as they did with White, especially last year. They may have a type, and they know how to use it. I'm more excited about Irving than I ever thought I would be.

Theo Johnson - From 39th to 35th

• This modest move up my rankings is largely based on Darren Waller's retirement, but his nice plays in his first preseason game also moved him up. He only has to beat our Daniel Bellinger to earn a starting role in his first season. Both were fourth-round draft picks, so neither has the draft capital advantage, but Johnson is two years younger and, more importantly, has more years on his contract. He was a Combine standout, and the Giants have every reason to want him to become their starter in year one.

Dylan Laube - From 40th to 36th

• Laube made a small jump up my rankings after training camp reports stated that he'd become the team's passing-down back and may have surpassed Alexander Mattison to become the Raiders' RB-2. It's a modest move up, but he's moved ahead of many of the running backs listed among my rookie fallers. I'm eager to watch him play in the final two preseason games to see if he can solidify a passing-downs role.

Jared Wiley - From 56th to 40th

• I don't remember much from Wiley in the first preseason game, but his camp reports have been glowing. The fact is that someone has to take the Travis Kelce mantle in the coming years. Wiley has the college recruit pedigree to keep me curious and hopeful. He's a player I added to rosters on waivers over the last few weeks in deep leagues since May, and now he's moved up to a player I'd draft in the fourth or fifth round in rookie drafts in August. I'd only draft him in taxi-squad leagues or leagues where I have a solid TE-1 and can wait for Wiley to develop on my bench.

Jordan Whittington - From 68th to 45th

• Whittington received significant training camp buzz from the same people who hyped up Puka Nacua last year during training camp. Having watched Whittington at the University of Texas, I know him well. He's a Sean McVay type because he's an all-around athlete and willing to contribute and a blocker. He's buried behind Nacua and Copper Kupp, but he's got a chance to contribute if either gets injured this season, and Kupp's career is nearing its end. Whitington flashed in his first preseason game, moving him up to a player to pick up off the waiver wire or draft in late rookie drafts. He's worth adding as a last pick in late rookie drafts.

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Rookie Fallers

Trey Benson - From 17th to 25th

• I was far lower on Benson in my pre-NFL-draft rankings because I was unimpressed by his college film, but his draft capital and landing spot demanded that I move him up my rankings. I still had him ranked behind Jonathan Brooks and Blake Corum in my rankings. Now, I have Ray Davis, Tyrone Tracy, and Will Shipley ranked ahead of him in August. Beat writers have suggested he's still behind Emari Demercado on the depth chart. He looked terrible in his first preseason game, and Michael Carter faired pretty well, adding another running back to the competition. I'm even more down on Benson for my draft this month.

Roman Wilson - From 22nd to 28th

• Wilson's initial training camp reports were glowing, but his injury briefly sidelined him. The injury appears not severe, but it's delayed his opportunities to prove himself. His fall in my rankings has less to do with him and more with those able to rise during training camp and preseason games. It also has to do with the uncertainty (at the point of this writing) that Brandon Aiyuk could get traded to Pittsburgh. I'm still hopeful for Wilson if Aiyuk is not traded and gets healthy, but he deserves a dip in rankings for now.

Javon Baker - From 23rd to 30th

• I'm extremely sad to say that one of "my guys" in this year's class and my most drafted rookies has fallen in my rookie rankings. Baker had many outstanding reports during camp, but there were also several reports about his dropped passes. He dropped two more in his second preseason game, the only one I've watched before this posting. It's frustrating because it's clear that Maye has eyes for Baker, which is excellent, but if you can't reliably catch the ball, that's a problem. I'm still confident in Baker's long-term dynasty value, but others have given more evidence than he has and have moved ahead of him in my final rookie rankings. I may still draft him again, but I won't reach him anymore.

Audric Estime - From 29th to 33rd

• Similarly, Estime, my most drafted rookie, has fallen in my rankings. His fall is mostly the cause of others jumping him in the rankings after solid training camps and preseason games. The most significant cause of his fall is Javante Williams's "best shape of his life" story and his clear leading role in the first preseason game. Estime did well in his first preseason game until he fumbled, something coach Payton was not pleased with and spoke about. Estime is in Payton's doghouse, and he's in mine now, too. I'm terribly disappointed about this turn of events, but I hope things can turn around for him.

Troy Franklin - From 24th to 37th

• Franklin has hardly played in the preseason and hasn't had any glowing reports from training camps. The Broncos' veteran has dominated snap counts and touches in training camp, even while his college quarterback, Bo Nix, has moved into the starting quarterback role. Franklin's drop in my rankings is one of silence. It's just that he's had no positive buzz. He's done nothing in the preseason so far, either.

Malachi Corley - From 18th to 38th

• While Corley had decent draft capital, I was concerned about his competition, given that I like Xavier Gipson a lot and after the Jets added Mike Williams in free agency. Still, he had the opportunity to win a starting role in three-receiver sets, but he has yet to do so. As I expected, Gipson has held him off, and Mike Williams has returned to practice. Corley was an upside bet in May drafts, but I think the upside has diminished already, and he should fall far down the rookie rankings as a result. I see him as a future gadget guy who is not worth rostering in most dynasty leagues.

MarShawn Lloyd - From 33rd to 39th

• So far, I look spot on with my early Llyod ranking because he's only fallen further down my rankings since. He was assumed to earn the RB-2 role behind Josh Jacobs, but he's yet to do so. A.J. Dillon, the player many expected to be cut after training camp, has apparently held onto the RB-2 role as he has in the past. Llyod was a considerable stretch that many dynasty managers drafted early, and scouts like Daniel Jeremiah ranked highly. Things can change, but for now, I've been proven right. Llyod has fallen way behind and does not appear to be the RB-2 or future starter in Green Bay.

Luke McCaffrey - From 34th to 41st

• McCaffrey's third-round draft capital caused him to rise in my initial rookie rankings, but he's since fallen, given his lack of impact in training camp. Dyami Brown's emergence and competitive fight for the WR-2 role with Jahan Dotson has put McCaffrey's rookie value at bay. Dotson has been used much more in the slot, and it is the only place McCaffrey can excel. He's taken a back seat in the rotation, making me far less likely to draft McCaffrey. I don't have any shares of him yet, and I certainly won't in my final draft this week.

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