Sun Jul 12th 2020
10 Players I'm Trying To Sell
Players I'm looking sell this off-season
Several players have had slight to significant spikes in their value recently. Their spikes in value make me more eager to sell them. There are many players I have been shopping this off-season, trying to sell low. However, it's harder to find buyers for players who have had some downtick in their value due to off-season surgery, team changes, and competition added to their teams. It's easier to find a buyer on players who have some uptick in their value based on increased opportunity, team change, and hope for building on previous season breakouts. Here are the players I see rising in value recently, which makes me eager to sell them because I do not believe their hype.
- Cam signed with New England last week, making him the presumed starter in New England. His dynasty value has bounced right back in response to the signing. He's not valued as a top-five dynasty quarterback like he was five years ago, but he's bounced back into the top 15-20 dynasty quarterbacks after signing in New England, but I only moved him up to quarterback #26 in my dynasty rankings. Several reasons lead me to believe Cam is a better player to sell than to buy right now. Cam Newton signed a one-year incentive-laden contract, which proves that New England can release him anytime this season, if not this off-season. Cam's fantasy value has always, apart from the 2015 season, been linked to his running ability. Running is a diminished skill for Cam in his 31-year-old season, and he's joined a team that has never featured a running quarterback. The pieces don't fit for me. Cam Newton set the league by storm his first few years as a duel-threat quarterback, but he could become an R.G. III example of how fall duel threat quarterbacks fall off a cliff compared to pocket passing quarterbacks who get better with age. If I had Cam, I would try to sell him after landing in New England.
- Jimmy G has not had a considerable spike in dynasty value this off-season, but he has risen just a bit based on the addition of Brandon Aiyuk in the draft and growing confidence in their head coach, Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers will continue to be a run-first team that just needs an efficient quarterback to manage their offense and distribute the ball to athletic players who can make plays after the catch or handoff. Running backs are the only star players in Shanahan offenses, but you never know which one will be the star week to week. Garoppolo is too inconsistent to be an every-week starter in dynasty leagues. That's not going to change.
- Guice's value has not risen this off-season by my estimation, but I've seen him pick up in many trades and have had him offered in trades to me. His draft capital suggests that he'd be the lead running back in Washington this year, but there are too many barriers for him doing so. Washington added Peyton Barber in free agency, drafted Antonio Gibson in the third round, and re-signed Adrian Peterson. All of these signs point to Washington questioning the future of their 2018 second-round pick. He's the most talented back on Washington, but he's not held his second-round value based on injuries and off-field questions of his character and work ethic. Try to find someone who does not know these facts, but only remembers his 2018 rookie draft value, and trade him.
- Coleman's value spiked quickly this week after Raheem Mostert asked for a new contract or a trade. Sell Coleman if you can. I believe this will be the very last opportunity to do so in his career. Mostert already proved he was better than Coleman by performing so well at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Coleman was hand-picked by Kyle Shanahan, yet was still replaced by the journey-man, Mostert. Coleman is injury prone and unable to be the lead back in San Francisco. More importantly, Mostert has no leverage in contract extensions other than balling out this year to prove that, though he is already 28 years old, he deserves a bigger contract. The 49ers will never pay a running back a huge contract, given the uniqueness of their offensive system, but no team will pay Mostert what he thinks he deserves. He's worth more in Shanahan's schemes than anywhere else. Mostert has to stay in San Francisco, and his best bet to sign a modest contract is with the 49ers.
- Drake's value is by far the highest it has been of his career, and rightly so after breaking out in Arizona at the end of last year after being traded there from Miami. He won teams championships by how well he ended the year, but I still have questions about his ability to be a consistent RB-1 in dynasty leagues. Chase Edmonds played just as well or better than Drake in his two starts minus David Johnson. Edmonds could be as good or better than Drake. Plus, Arizona drafted Eno Benjamin in the 7th round. While a 7th round draft pick should be no threat to a veteran like Kenyan Drake, Benjamin (like Edmonds) has the skills to be a plug-and-play back in this kind of offense. Drake only signed a one-year extension in Arizona, meaning Edmonds and Benjamin have longer contacts to prove themselves and save salary cap space in future years. They will get every chance to do so.
- Slayton was a surprise breakout last year after being drafted in the 5th round by the Giants in 2019. He was a big-play artist, averaging 15.4 yards per reception and a touchdown on 17% of his receptions. Both stats will likely not be repeated in his career. Most of his fantasy points were between weeks 5 and 10 when Sterling Shepard was injured, and Evan Engram missed several games. Slayton showed big-play ability, but if other owners were banking on him doing that again and becoming a leading receiver in New York, I would eagerly sell him. 2019 may have been the best year of his career.
- Harry's value has risen a bit just based on his draft capital in the NFL and dynasty leagues and the hope that he is healthy and has a veteran quarterback in Cam Newton. I think this is false hope. Harry is an excellent prospect, but his injuries and circumstances have crushed his dynasty value. Cam Newton is not the kind of quarterback to elevate the dynasty value of his receivers, nor do his skills match with those of Harry, who thrives in contested catches, boundary catches, and deep ball catches. Harry would be a bounce-back candidate in 2020, but not on the Patriots with Cam Newton at quarterback.
- Johnson is being hyped up more than almost any player this off-season. Some analysts have gone so far as to say his value is surpassing Juju Smith-Schuster. I think there is not only no way his dynasty value compares to Juju, let alone James Washington. Juju has already proven himself as number one wide receiver, and he is younger than Johnson, even though he was a rookie last year. James Washington is the same age as Johnson, was drafted a round earlier than Johnson, and had more snaps than Johnson last year after Juju was lost for the season. Pittsburg drafted another third-round wide receiver this year in Chase Claypool. Ben Roethlisberger was injured last year, so he has yet to establish a report with any one of these receivers except for Juju. James Washington has better draft capital and was a higher draft pick in dynasty drafts, so he should have an even better chance of becoming the WR-2 in Pittsburg behind Juju.
- Higbee had one of the highest-scoring six-week stretches of any tight end in years to end the season. He averaged almost seven catches and more than 90 yards the last six weeks of the season. He was a surprise contributor to fantasy championships for sure. However, Higbee's contributions to the offense came only after Gerald Everett's injury and a major shift in the offensive scheme in Los Angeles. At the end of the season, the Rams moved playing two tight end sets more than they have ever done before un Sean McVay. I don't believe this was a permanent shift in McVay's philosophy, but a temporary change based on running back injuries and a weak offensive line. Plus, Everett was injured during the last six weeks. It's very dangerous to think the last six weeks of 2019 were a projection for the years to come. It appears to be just a reflection of the team's need in a playoff push to end the season. It's not enough evidence to believe that Higbee is a top-10 dynasty tight end like some think.
- Sternberger's stock has risen a bit this off-season since Green Bay did not draft a tight end or wide receiver in the NFL draft, and Sternberger finally contributed with a touchdown catch in the playoff game that knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs. I think it's presumptuous to believe that Sternberger will be the starting tight end for the Packers next year, let alone an often targeted position. Green Bay appears to be moving toward a more run-first offense, and even in their pass-first days, Rodgers did not target tight ends often enough to make them fantasy relevant, except for Jermichael Finley. Dynasty owners point to the absence of competition as a reason to raise Sternberger's value, but I look to it as a reason to suspect the tight ends will have no value in Green Bay.
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